|Eduardo Ponce Mojica
Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico
Major: Electrical Engineering
Faculty Advisor: Houssain Kettani, Ph.D.
Program: Research Alliance in Math and Science
Global and Southeast United States Assessment of Precipitation: Comparison of Model Simulations with Reanalysis-based Observations
Climate change is likely to cause significant stresses on the environment, ecology, and society owing to increased intensity-duration-frequency of extreme hydro-meteorological events and large regional changes in weather and hydrology. However, precipitation and their extremes remain among the hardest to predict from climate and atmospheric models. We compare and evaluate two of the most comprehensive and commonly used climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to project precipitation extremes. The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the Hadley Center Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) models are compared and evaluated. Statistical approaches for climate data, developed using the MATLAB software package, are used to compare and contrast the model simulations in addition to visual comparisons. The Southeastern region of the United States is selected as the case study region, with a focus on the time period from 1948 to 1999. Given the importance of precipitation and their extremes on climate change adaptation and mitigation, the comparison of two of the most commonly used climate models may offer guidelines and uncertainty bounds for stakeholders and policy makers.
Auroop Ganguly, Ph.D.
Geographic Information Science and Technology
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
(865) 241 - 1305