Galloping populations and energy consumption
A long time ago, or rather I should say not so long ago the world was not too populated. That was in the year 1600 A.D. Gradually the world started to fill up, faster and faster and faster . The population in South America, Australia and even North America was negligible at the time although Europe had significant numbers…and the population in India and China was sizable.
By 2005 the world had become a crowded place. I found some maps to illustrate this change…you can view them here in the slideshow…. Watch how the maps change as the years roll by… (if the slideshow ends and you want to view it again, simply press the cross at the top right hand corner)
From 1600 A.D to 1700 A.D. there isn’t much change, but by 1800 there is a startling jump in China’s population. The populations of India and Russia also increase significantly and the population of the United States seems to double…
By 1900 there is a huge spurt in human population all over the world and this change seems to start in the first quarter of the 19th century, somewhere around 1820. All islands off the east coast of Australia become populated. There is a significant increase in Africa’s population too and by 1950 the global population has grown further despite 2 world wars! We humans are quite resilient.
By 2000 the population of China and India increases alarmingly. True, the population of the United States also grows (partly due to increasing immigration) but it was never that large to begin with. Where Europe is concerned, population growth is slowing down. Even the population of Russia is showing slower growth and as for India, we are fast catching up with China.
India’s population gets bigger than that of China by 2030. On the other hand, Japan’s population decreases and Europe’s remains static.
Energy consumption and population growth
When it comes to energy consumption India and China are heading for big trouble. However it is not just the increase in population (and the resultant increase in energy requirements) that’s critical here. There are two additional aspects to be taken into consideration.
One, it’s not just all Indian families owning cars that will push up energy consumption…but the fact that families will start to own more than one car (normal in the United States), a trend that has already started amongst the well-to-do here. And the Tata Nano is sure to fuel this trend once it’s out.
Two, changing lifestyles is something that we need to ponder on as this will impact energy consumption in a big way. For this we need to look at the consumption patterns in the United States. I came across some statistics which might give us an idea as to what the future could hold for us. America’s population increased by 50 percent in the last 39 years, but the number of households grew by a 100 percent in the corresponding period! And the number of vehicles more than doubled…and hear this… the miles driven in those vehicles nearly tripled!!
And this has happened because people are increasingly living alone and in smaller units. The average household size in the United States has shrunk from 3.3 people to 2.6 people, and single person households have increased from about 15 percent to about 27 percent. It says here:
The natural resource base that is required to support each person keeps rising…we are heating and cooling more space, and the housing units are more spread out than ever before.”
America is certainly worried about consumption as gas prices are rising steadily and are likely increase further in the years to come. As of now we in India may only consume only 2.5 million barrels of oil a day (one third that of China and one eighth that of the US), but this situation is fast changing.
(Photograph of the petrol station is by me)
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