Buy Fantasy Football for Smart People
In 2012, I wrote Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft. It is an in-depth analysis of fantasy football draft strategy. In writing the book, my goal was to provide advanced material for experienced fantasy football owners and “bottom line” analysis for novices. You can see that in this sample chapter. The book is not a collection of player rankings or projections, but rather an assessment of various draft strategies and fantasy football tenants. It is my hope it will provide a solid foundation from which you can improve as an owner to dominate your draft.
I continued the series in 2013 with How to Cash in on the Future of the Game and What the Experts Don’t Want You to Know. The former is the first book of its kind to break down the actual strategies used by the top owners in the world of weekly fantasy football. With weekly fantasy football growing at an exponential rate, there’s a whole lot of money to be made, and advanced weekly owners are already cashing in to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. With input from one of the weekly fantasy football “sharks”—FFFC $150,000 winner Peter Jennings—How to Cash in on the Future of the Game will show you how to manage your money, select the perfect websites, make projections, and create lineups so that you can finally treat your hobby as you always wanted—as an investment.
What the Experts Don’t Want You to Know contains solutions to 25 of fantasy football’s most pressing questions. What’s the best draft spot? Do running backs really break down after a lot of carries? How should you project rookies? What’s the best waiver wire strategy? What the Experts Don’t Want You to Know will answer these important questions—and give you a wealth of fantasy football knowledge along the way—to provide the edge you need to make the jump toward becoming an advanced fantasy football owner.
You can buy all of the books on Amazon or at FantasyFootballDrafting.com. I’ve posted the Table of Contents for each book below.
How to Dominate Your Draft Table of Contents
Chapter 1: The Most In-Depth Introduction You’ll Ever Read
This is an introduction, but I dive right into complex draft strategy, explaining how position scarcity, consistency, game theory, and league requirements are the four pillars of fantasy football draft strategy.
- How to use scarcity at a position to acquire maximum value
- How to use your opponents’ beliefs to get the best players
- Why predictability is more important than projected points
Chapter 2: Why Week-to-Week Consistency is (Almost) Worthless
An explanation of why weekly projections are of little value, why season-to-season consistency is invaluable, and how to implement risk
- Why you should start a nearly identical lineup each week
- How to create tiered rankings that implement players’ risk
- When and how to take gambles during your draft
Chapter 3: Season-to-Season Consistency: Why It Matters and How to Use it
The strength of correlation of fantasy football statistics from one year to the next
- How stats like rushing, receiving, and passing yards/touchdowns translate from one season to another
- Why defenses and kickers are almost entirely unpredictable
- Why a quarterback or top-tier running back should be your first-round selection
- Why tight ends are the most consistent players in fantasy football
Chapter 4: Tier-ing Up: How to Create Basic Projections and Tiered Rankings
Basic projection philosophy, including how to use consistency, risk, and average draft position to create rankings
- A basic formula to create projections
- How to make tiers in your rankings
- Why you should almost never take the best player available on your board (for real)
- Why drafting near the end of a round is advantageous
Chapter 5: More on Position Scarcity
A short chapter on scarcity and VORP draft strategy
- Why Aaron Rodgers and Rob Gronkowski might be the perfect 1-2 combination
- Why you can grab quality wide receivers late
Chapter 6: Identifying Value: Regression, Randomness, and Running Backs
Using stats to identify breakout players and dispel fantasy football “truisms”
- How to identify undervalued players
- Why running backs with lots of carries aren’t really being overworked or overvalued
- How to predict running backs’ yards-per-carry
Chapter 7: Getting Bullish: What the Stock Market Can Teach Us About Fantasy Football
How fantasy football is incredibly similar to the stock market (and what we can learn from the latter)
- Why a player’s value can be different for different teams
- How to “buy low” and “sell high” during your draft
- How to utilize public perception
- Why your focus shouldn’t be securing the most projected points with each pick, but rather “losing” the least
Chapter 8: The Ultimate Draft Plan: From Projections to Selections
Creating an overarching draft plan to dominate your draft
- Specific formulas to project player stats
- How to factor league requirements into your rankings
- Sample breakdowns of Matt Ryan and Steve Smith
- How to create player power ratings and turn them into the ultimate big board
Chapter 9: Building the Ideal Fantasy Football Players
Showing which traits are most important in fantasy football
- Breaking down the ideal characteristics for QB, RB, WR, and TE
- How to use measurables to project players, especially rookies
- Why speed matters more for running backs than receivers
Chapter 10: Don’t Mock Me: Oh, now wait. Go ahead.
Taking you through two mock drafts I completed in March
Chapter 11: Fantasy Football for Smart People: What the Experts Don’t Want You to Know
Sample sections from my book on fantasy football’s biggest questions
- How to project players based on age
- Understanding historic rates of decline for each position
- How to predict performances using “similarity scores”
- Understanding risk and reward
Chapter 12: Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Cash in on the Future of the Game
Sample from my weekly fantasy football book
- How to manage your money in weekly fantasy football
- Understanding “juice”
- Picking the perfect entry fee size
How to Cash in on the Future of the Game Table of Contents
II Foreword from FFFC $150,000 winner Peter Jennings
III A note from the author
1 Cha-Ching: Money Management as the Backbone of Weekly Fantasy Football
- Understanding bankroll
- How to determine your optimal bet size
- How to reduce the winning percentage needed to profit
2 A League of Your Own: How to Select the Proper Weekly Leagues to Enter
- In-depth breakdown of each league type
- Understanding payout structure
- How to combine different types of leagues for maximum profit
3 Projections and Rankings with FFFC Winner Peter Jennings
- How to project players with the Vegas lines
- Using “wisdom of the crowds” in projections
- How contrarian thinking is useful
- Understanding the difference between a hot streak and randomness
- How to use Excel to make lineups
- How to make detailed value-based, tiered rankings
4 Risk, Reward, and Uncertainty: Using Comparables as a Projection Methodology
- How to use historical “comps” to project players
- How to incorporate uncertainty into your rankings
- Generating true ceiling and floor weekly projections for each player
5 Winning With Regularity: Understanding Stacking and Position Consistency in Lineup Creation
- How to create lineups for different league types
- Stacking, reverse stacking, and anti-stacking
- Week-to-week consistency for each position
- How to know which players will play consistently well
6 Sample from What the Experts Don’t Want You to Know (Bonus)
- Understanding the typical age and rate of decline for each position
- How to project players’ ceilings and floors in a given season
7 Sample from How to Dominate Your Draft (Bonus)
- Understanding regression toward the mean
- Why the concept of “overworked” running backs is a myth
What the Experts Don’t Want You to Know Table of Contents
Section 1: Which draft position is the most valuable?
Section 2: Do running backs really break down after a heavy workload?
Section 3: How much does a great quarterback help a receiver?
Section 4: Does week-to-week consistency really exist?
Section 5: How does the consistency of certain positions affect a draft board?
Section 6: How do you really find value in fantasy football drafts?
Section 7: What’s the typical age (and rate) of decline for each position?
Section 8: Should your first three draft picks be three running backs?
Section 9: What type of player should you draft in the late rounds?
Section 10: Are rookie quarterbacks the new rookie running backs?
Section 11: Do rookie tight ends offer value?
Section 12: How do you pick the best free agents on the waiver wire after Week 1?
Section 13: Are rookie wide receivers worth drafting?
Section 14: Do players perform better during contract seasons?
Section 15: How do you project a running back’s yards-per-carry?
Section 16: Which second-year running backs break out?
Section 17: How do you project wide receivers with rookie stats?
Section 18: Which second-year tight ends are worth a gamble?
Section 19: How do you predict quarterback success with rookie stats?
Section 20: How much does speed matter for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends?
Section 21: How much does quarterback height affect NFL performance?
Section 22: Do injuries offer potential value?
Section 23: Can early-season average draft position (ADP) be useful in August?
Section 24: How can you tell which players are safe and which are risky?
Section 25: When and how should you draft a defense?