When people have less money, they tend to do less of certain things, like buy $3,000 jackets, order the $250 omakase, and pick up diamond-encrusted lingerie for their penthouse-dwelling mistresses. They also don’t typically fork over as much cash for vacations to beaches, islands, and other ocean-bordering locales.
The good news: Since all these recession-battered folks are crouched in their living rooms watching their 401K values plummet on a laptop screen, they aren’t swimming and cavorting in waters that are also frequented by permanent residents, such as sharks. With fewer humans and sharks in physical proximity, we have fewer chances for said sharks to munch on passing surfers and snorklers. Logical? Absolutely.
Of course, all logic can be twisted and mangled with a little help from the English language. Which brings us to the following LiveScience headline: “Economic Recession Means Fewer Shark Attacks.”Ah where shall we begin…
First, there’s the actual numbers: Shark attacks have fallen “from 71 in 2007 to 59 in 2008, the fewest since 2003, when there were 57.” So the grand worldwide decline is all of 12 attacks. In the U.S., the number of shark attacks went from 50 in 2007 to 41 in 2008. As the article (thankfully, eventually) points out:
Shark attacks basically correlate with the number of people in the water. The more people go to the beach, the more they are in the shark’s home, the offshore waters, and the more attacks on humans.
The key point, really, is the egregious use of “means.” In science, where correlation v. causation is a struggle akin to good v. evil, saying that two things occurring in a similar time frame caused each other to happen can lead to all sorts of unnecessary hysterias and harmful behaviors. And, likewise, a few well-placed words can plop causation in the lap of an effect or event that has only the mildest of relationships to its supposed link.
The economic crisis will have ripple effects throughout every facet of society. Yes, it will make people visit beaches less, so they’ll have less opportunity to get chomped by dorsal-finned swimmersby. It’ll also keep people off the road more (layoffs mean less commuting, and less money for gas) so they’ll be less likely to get in accidents. So does that “mean” that we should start running headlines like “The Recession Could Save Your Life”?
Image: Flickr / Daveybot