Withdraw From Iraq Now
A recent opinion poll conducted by Washington-Post –ABC-News reports that more than 80% of Americans now believe civil war between Iraqi Shiites and Sunnis is likely or very likely. And 52% believe the U.S. should begin withdrawing troops. Yet only one sixth supports immediate, total withdrawal.
If one believes a continued U.S. presence will increase the likelihood of peace, or democracy, or economic growth, then it is reasonable to oppose immediate withdrawal.
If one believes, however, that civil war or totalitarian Islamic rule is virtually inevitable – whether the U.S. withdraws in one year, or five years, or fifty – then our continued presence is all cost and no benefit. In this case, no matter how awful withdrawal might be, the U.S. should do it now and avoid the costs of occupation. Moreover, a continuing U.S. presence probably increases terrorism against the U.S., since it is above all our presence in the Middle East that Islamic terrorist groups detest.
No one can know with certainty whether U.S. efforts can eventually prove beneficial in Iraq. But few historical examples provide a basis for optimism. The right policy, therefore, is to withdraw now. Not in a year or a month or a day. Now.