Since the industrial revolution, economic
development has been accompanied by growth
in the consumption of fossil
fuels, with more and more coal, oil, and
natural gas being burned by factories and electric power
plants, motor vehicles, and households. The resulting carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions have turned into the
largest source of greenhouse
gases- gases that trap the infrared radiation
from the earth within its atmosphere and create the risk
of global warming. Because the earth's environmental systems
are so complex, the exact timing and extent to which human
economic activities will change the planet's climate are
still unclear. But many scientists believe that the changes
are already observable.
According to the 1995 report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, by 2100 the mean global temperature could
increase by 1.0-3.5 degrees Celsius and the global sea level
could rise by 15-95 centimeters if current trends in greenhouse
gas emissions continue. Though these may seem like minor
changes, they could have multiple adverse consequences,
along with some uncertain benefits. Forests and other ecosystems,
unable to adapt to changing temperatures and precipitation
patterns, may be damaged. People are also likely to suffer-
and those in poor countries may suffer the most, being less
prepared to cope with the changes.
Many developing countries in arid and semiarid regions
may see their access to safe water worsen. (As things stand
today, more than 1 billion people lack access to safe water.)
Tropical diseases may spread farther to the North, and flooding
will likely become a bigger problem in temperate and humid
regions. While food production could become easier in middle
and high latitudes, in the tropics and subtropics yields
will likely fall. Large numbers of people could be displaced
by a rise in the sea level- including tens of millions in
Bangladesh alone, as well as entire nations inhabiting low-lying
islands such as those in the Caribbean.
The amount of carbon dioxide a country emits into the atmosphere
depends mainly on the size of its economy, the level of
and the efficiency
of its energy use. Even though developing
countries contain most of the world's population,
their industrial production and energy consumption per capita
are relatively low. Thus until recently there has been little
doubt that the primary responsibility for creating the risk
of global warming lies with developed
countries (Map 14.1;
Figures 14.1 and 14.2).
The United States is the largest contributor to global
warming. Although it contains just 4 percent of the world's
population, it produces almost 25 percent of global carbon
dioxide emissions. Russia was recently replaced by China
as the second largest emitter, but on a per capita basis
it is still far ahead of China (see Figures 14.1
and 14.2). Russia's high per capita
carbon dioxide emissions are explained not only by its high
level of industrialization: it is also because many Russian
enterprises use technologies that are older and "dirtier"
than those normally used in developed countries. Extremely
inefficient energy use is one of Russia's biggest economic
problems. Measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP)
per unit of energy use, energy efficiency in Russia is more
than 5 times lower than in the United States and more than
12 times lower than in Japan. Only four countries are less
energy efficient than Russia- and all are former members
of the Soviet Union (see Data
The link between economic
growth and increased energy consumption-
accompanied by increased carbon dioxide emissions- is direct
and positive for low-
countries. But at high income levels, there
are signs of lower per capita energy consumption and pollution
despite economic growth (see Data
Table 4). This occurs because energy use becomes more
efficient and environmentally cleaner technologies are introduced.
In addition, a higher-income economy usually includes a
proportionately larger service sector, which is less energy-intensive
than industry (see Chapter 9).
Germany sets the example for other developed countries
in this regard: between 1980 and 1992 its per capita energy
use has dropped 11 percent and its per capita carbon dioxide
emissions almost 20 percent. In the United States during
the same period, per capita energy consumption was stable
and per capita carbon dioxide emissions fell about 6 percent.
But these changes were not sufficient to stop the growth
of carbon dioxide emissions by high-income
countries or to slow the growth of global
emissions (see Data Table 4).
To prevent global climate change, concerted efforts are
needed from the governments of most countries.
At the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), developed
nations agreed to work toward stabilizing their green-house
gas emissions at 1990 levels by 2000. By the time representatives
of 165 countries had gathered in Kyoto (Japan) for the United
Nations Conference on Climate Change in 1997, it was clear
that many- including the United States- were falling short
of that target. The Kyoto Protocol, adopted at the conference,
is meant to be legally binding and calls on all wealthy
nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 6-8 percent
below 1990 levels by 2012.
This agreement is considered the most ambitious global environmental
undertaking in history- even though developing countries'
participation in it was postponed. Most developing countries
refuse to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, arguing
that these commitments would undermine their economic development
and impede poverty alleviation. At the same time, a number
with transition economies have joined in
the efforts of developed countries. For example, Russia
and Ukraine have vowed not to exceed their greenhouse gas
emissions of 1990, while Hungary and Poland have promised
to go 6 percent below these levels.
Developed countries are expected to take the lead in preventing
global climate change even though in less than 20 years
developing countries will likely surpass them as the main
emitters of carbon dioxide. But it will take much longer
than 20 years for per capita energy consumption in developing
countries to become comparable to that in today's developed
countries. So, in terms of fairness, today's poor countries
have every right to continue polluting the atmosphere. But
is it wise for them to follow a model of development that
has already proven unsustainable? And is it true that environmental
concerns cannot be addressed without impeding poor countries'
economic growth? Many analysts believe that the sooner these
countries take advantage of cleaner production technologies
and more efficient ways of generating and using energy,
the better it will be for their long-term development prospects.
Assume, for the sake of fairness, that every person on
earth has an equal right to the atmosphere as a resource.
In that case carbon dioxide emission quotas for countries
would be determined by population size. Low-income countries
would not yet have reached their quotas and would have the
right to continue emitting carbon dioxide. But middle- and
high-income countries would already have exceeded their
quotas (compare Figures
2.2 and 14.3).