Open Foresight is a process for analyzing complex issues in an open and collaborative way, and to raise the bar on public discourse and forward-focused critical thinking. It draws on well-established methodologies from the Futures Studies field, principles from design thinking, and visual communication tools to create a framework for building forecasts and scenarios.
Step 1: Choose Analysis Technique
We used the STEEP Analysis for this project, which broadly investigates challenges and opportunities through the lenses of Society, Technology, Environment, Economy, and Politics. A list of other forecasting methodologies can be found here.
Step 2: Frame the Questions
A questionnaire was developed to tap into insights and predictions about these category areas, then posed to the experts. The same 15 questions were also published to Quora, a Q&A site, in order to invite input from the public.
Step 3: Look for Patterns
The interviews with the experts were transcribed and harvested for common themes, and compared with submissions received on Quora. We also integrated the information collected from our environmental scanning process, supplying us a big picture view of underlying trends, known statistics, news, and ideas from a wide variety of sources.
Step 4: Synthesize
We extracted the key insights and compelling possibilities, then transformed them into short focus videos that fleshed out each STEEP topic area. A final video was also created to give the big picture overview of potential pathways and scenarios for the evolution of Facebook.