As manufacturers strive for market share in the burgeoning LED lighting market each tries to outdo the other with ever-improving efficacy claims. But just how far can the LED chip makers go and how soon will they get there?
Equally important: LED cost is plummeting. Thanks to a phenomenon known as Haitz’s Law, LED cost is said to be falling by a factor of 10 every decade, while the light generated per package rises by a factor of 20.
Haitz’s law is an observation and forecast about the steady improvement, over many years, of light-emitting diodes (LED). It states that every decade, the cost per lumen (unit of useful light emitted) falls by a factor of 10, the amount of light generated per LED package increases by a factor of 20, for a given wavelength (color) of light. It is considered the LED counterpart to Moore’s law.
LED Efficacy Improvement Shows No Signs of Slowing article briefly explores the historical trend of improving efficacy of high-brightness LEDs, considers the theoretical efficiency limits, and takes a look at how contemporary devices stack up. Finally, the article takes a look at what manufacturers such as Cree and OSRAM are up to in their R&D labs to find out how tomorrow’s chips will perform. Rapid increases in LED efficacy show no sign of slowing just yet. And with a mainstream lighting market for LEDs potentially worth billions of dollars, manufacturers are not shy about pouring hundreds of millions into R&D.