Iraqi War – Virtually Inevitable
In its continuing aggression against the peoples of
Iraq, the USA is only following the imperialist dictum "Eat or be eaten".
That war is a virtual inevitability – is not just the opinion of those
whose information is limited to the bourgeois press, but is also the opinion
of policy-makers. Richard Perle, Chairman of the Defence Advisory
Board said to the NYT that war was inevitable – if only to ‘save face’
of the President:
"The failure to take on Saddam after what the President said would
produce such a collapse of confidence in the president that he would set
back the war on terrorism";
Cited Rivers Pitt W: "War on Iraq – What Team Bush Doesn’t Want you
To Know"; Context books, New York 2002; p.8 (www.ww_on_iraq.com).
If this analysis was true in August 2002, it is even more so now
in January 2003 since:
1) Donald Rumsfeld is now revealed as a key arms merchant of
the USA who bestowed despicable weaponry on Saddam in the beginning;
It looks increasingly inevitable that the question
is not "Whether"? But "When"?
2) The USA has impounded and potentially sanitised the list of weapons
that was sent by the Iraqi Government to the UN in response to demands;
3) The US & the UN have intimidated Hans Blix of the U.N.
Arms Inspectorate, into "appealing" for the "aid" of the USA and British
governments to obtain information to help "assist’" in the detection of
"Weapons of Mass Destruction".
It is necessary to ask why is war virtually inevitable?
We suggest that for those who retain some degree of skepticism about the
USA and UN "honour", the following is convincing.
The short answer to the question is two-fold:
The declining power of the USA economy; and
the strategic importance of the geographical arena
of the Middle East.
The link between these two factors is of course,
1) Declining Power of the USA Economy.
Over the last 2 years several chickens have come home
to roost in the American economy. Firstly, the collapse of the markets
- the greatest "bubble" ever - has led to three successive falls in as
many years in the international exchanges such as the Financial Times Stock
Exchange (FTSE) or the Dow Jones etc.
"Cumulative losses of the FTSE World Index since the start of the
2002 after the bursting of the technology media and telecoms bubble, total
(31.12.2002 Financial Times, London UK, p.1).
This was the worst 3-year period since the Great Depression
years – when in 1929-31 world markets fell 58.5%. These figures that have
so depressed the capitalist profits are world wide. This had long been
predicted. At the end of 1996, Federal reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan
"Famously questioned whether ‘irrational exuberance’ was inflating
Wall St Journal 31.12.2002-1.1.2003; p.M1) .
In addition the value of the US dollar has begun to
slide dramatically. We pointed out in 1993, that the US $ was ‘set high’
by US imperialists in order to ‘recruit’ the world’s money reserves (See
3). However, with the systemic problems of the US economy, the dollar
has been falling since the mid-90’s, with a corresponding "investor flight"
from the US dollar.
Even in its "own backyard" of South America, the USA
has faced recent challenges to its hegemony has been a minor set-back.
As the bourgeois nationalists - in Ecuador (Lucio Gutierrez), Venezuela
(Hugo Chavez), Brazil (Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva), lead
challenges to the USA, they have not only are rattled the OPEC sword, but
also have obstructed a Free Trade Agreement for the "Americas". For example
Lula's "price" is dropping of trade barriers against citrus fruits and
juices (WSJ "Latin Issues Put Bush on Tightrope"; By Michael M. Phillips;
p. A3; WSJ 31.12.2002-1.1.2003). However the American Sugar Alliance and
the Florida Citrus Mutual (representing some 11,5000 citrus growers in
Florida alone) are hardly likely to easily allow this. So in South America,
the USA has some current difficulties.
Even more so, must the USA now urgently suppress
other areas of drift away from its hegemony. The Middle East is the Gateway
to another large market and raw resources region. It has already been the
focus for European interests in the past. The USA cannot afford it slip
from under its thumb as well.
If the USA cannot in effect control the money markets
as well as they did (see the falling $); nor can they effectively control
world industrial production (witness the need to erect Steel Tariff barriers
in 2002); - then as much as it can, it will try to control a key
raw material – Oil.
Oil is still the major lubricant that keeps industrial
wheels spinning. In the last decade the USA has launched 4 major wars to
ensure its’ domination over this raw material: 1991 Desert Storm, 1993
Desert Storm pt 2; 1998 Kosova; 2002 Afghanistan. Naturally all these wars
had camouflaged motives, the most recent being the "War Against Terror".
In various articles we have shown the underlying links to oil. The two
parts of Desert Storm are self-evident. The links of the Kosovan war and
the Afghanistan war are via the new oil pipelines from Central Asia across
to the Balkans.
Why have we used the term "virtually inevitable" – rather
than "inevitable"? Because there are two major unknowns. Firstly
there is the inter-imperialist rivalry between Europe and the USA. Of the
three largest power-brokers in the EU – apart from the toadyism of Blair’s
government in Britain, the governments of both France and Germany are quite
unwilling to allow the USA total sway. To what extent they will be able
to stop the drive to total Middle Eastern domination of the USA – remains
The second factor of importance is the ability
of the progressives and the representatives of the working class and toilers
of the world to counter the barrage of imperialist propaganda sprayed over
the world. To this end a United Front of all progressives MUST be formed.
There are indications that this is happening. When in 2002 we put out a
general alert asking for a Marxist-Leninist United Front – it led to little
response. But the class and peoples are in reality ahead of the small sects
and groupings. This is evidenced by such movements as in autumn Florence
2002. But – it remains the case that without a determined Marxist-Leninist
vanguard, these movements will inevitably lead – at best – short term solutions
only. In the interim, we believe Marxist-Leninists should participate actively
in the current anti-imperialist movements.
STOP WAR AGAINST IRAQI PEOPLE! DOWN WITH USA IMPERIALISM!
January 2003, Issue 1 ALLIANCE