Computer crime could soon pose a greater threat to world security than terrorism
Everyone agrees that cybercrime is a problem. There is a huge cost to the global economy: an estimated
On the other hand, it sometimes can feel as if it is considered akin to the rain. People are advised to wear raincoats and carry umbrellas, to stay indoors if the clouds are grey, to patch holes in their roofs. But there is no thought that the downpour can be averted; it instead becomes the personal responsibility of all to look after themselves.
To an extent, this makes sense.
Beyond the simple issue of having the right defences, there is a wider and much more problematic question. To what extent is the security of cyberspace compromised by a dangerous combination of criminals and states?
If one considers such major attacks as have taken place, from the use of the Stuxnet worm to damage
In many states, corruption and a simple lack of resources, which prevents the police and courts from developing a proper capacity to deal with cybercrime, helps grant the criminals virtual immunity. This is often compounded by a reluctance to police crimes committed abroad.
Elsewhere, there is evidence of a more symbiotic relationship. For example, the attacks on Estonian and Georgian internet infrastructure in 2007 and 2008 respectively appear to have been carried out by individual hackers, but encouraged and even 'armed' by the Russian government, possibly working through a shadowy criminal group based in
In some cases, the attacks were co-ordinated by mercenary 'bot herders' controlling networks of secretly infected computers. In others, the attacks were launched by individuals using attack scripts distributed through Russian discussion groups, complete with full instructions and a list of potential target websites.
Often, though, state-sanctioned or state-initiated cyberattacks are economically motivated. In June,
In countries where officials are also often entrepreneurs and where the state is a major player in the commercial economy, the lines between cybercrime and cyber-espionage can quickly blur.
Such fuzzy conceptual and practical boundaries are a common characteristic of the virtual world. By the same token, there are no sharp divisions between havens and targets. Indeed, many countries are both.
While the problem of state collusion with cybercriminals is a difficult one to address, there are some grounds for optimism. Countries may come to realise that the political and economic costs of offering cybercriminals safe haven outweigh the benefits. Sometimes this is essentially cosmetic.
It enjoyed apparent impunity and it is widely believed within foreign security agencies that this was in part because of occasional services it provided the government. As pressure on
The result has been a debate in government circles as to how to reconcile a strategy of encouraging 'patriotic' hackers with the growing costs of domestic cybercrime. Likewise, the cost of cybercrime to the national economy is an increasingly hotly debated topic in
It is also clear that even countries committed to the rule of law are willing to exploit cyberspace. Many states, after all, are developing not just countermeasures to cyberattacks, but also their own capacity to launch them.
The United States Cyber Command (UScybercom) was established in 2009,
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