New Scientist has seen a leaked draft of the agreement that the 115 heads of state at the Copenhagen climate talks are expected to sign before they leave here tonight. The document is circulating among Danish delegates. It shows that the conference will end with a deal, including money and quantified cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. It is a political statement and leaves it to negotiators to create the legal framework, including the final fate of the Kyoto Protocol.
The text suggests that China is on the verge of winning its war to keep its national target for slowing carbon dioxide emissions out of a formal international agreement. The document says that such "mitigation actions" taken by developing countries "will be subject to their domestic auditing, supervision and assessment".
It includes critical words that will settle the dispute between western governments and China to track developing countries' promises to cut the carbon intensity of its economy. It formalises the promise of the rich world to pay developing countries $100 billion a year by 2020 to cope with climate change. But although it does not yet include specific numbers for rich nations to cut their emissions, these appear in the text as "x" and "y per cent".
But those countries will have to report back in detail every two years and will be expected to provide "clarification on request". This may meet the US demand for transparency about progress in meeting those commitments. A further check proposed in the text is "a review of this decision and its implementation in 2016, including in light of the convention's ultimate objective (sic)".
This review clause offers the chance to formally challenge any developing countries not living up their promises. It also means that if the science changes, countries can review whether they need tougher standards before the 2020 deadline.
Promises from poor world
China has promised to cut the carbon intensity of its economy by 40 to 45 per cent by 2020; India by 20 to 25 per cent and South Africa by 34 per cent. Brazil has promised cuts of 40 per cent below "business as usual" economic development. Others may follow.
The $100-billion promise reflects statements by Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, yesterday and by Gordon Brown, UK prime minister, earlier this year. The United Nations has been suggesting that $200 billion might be necessary to help developing countries cut their emissions and adapt to climate change. At the other extreme, Malaysia wants seven times more: $1.5 trillion dropped into the piggy bank each year.
According to the draft, the $100 billion will be augmented by $10 billion a year in 2010, 2011 and 2012. "The funding will come from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance" – word for word the language used by Clinton in her press conference on Thursday.
The document affirms "the scientific view that the increase in global temperatures ought not to exceed 2 °C". But it does not acknowledge an official UN study leaked last night suggesting that current commitments are only sufficient to peg warming to 3 °C.
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