Thursday, July 16, 2009
This chart plots the 6-mo. annualized change in the 4-week moving average of weekly unemployment claims. The Labor Board notes that the numbers have been distorted because automaker shutdowns occurred earlier than normal. Seasonal factors expected layoffs to occur now that in fact happened several weeks or months ago; to that extent seasonally adjusted claims today are lower than they otherwise would have been. But if that's true, then claims were distorted on the high side for the past several weeks and months, right? And even those upwardly-distorted claims numbers showed significant slowing from earlier in the year.
Despite the problem of earlier-than-usual automaker shutdowns, it should be clear that the pace of unemployment claims has moderated significantly. We have almost certainly seen the worst of this recession, and most likely the end.
Posted by Scott Grannis at 8:02 AM