A complex known as a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is taking shape to our northwest tonight. This is a classic set-up for these complexes. An upper level wave moves out of the northwest flow triggering the storms. The instability is provided by an elevated low level jet (LLJ) out of the south.
As long as the LLJ continues the showers and storms remain intact and move southwest. We are expecting the showers and storms across our area between 5am and 11 am. Subsidence on the back of the wave should move the precipitation out by Noon.
The orientation of the LLJ should keep the severe weather threat to our west overnight. By the time the storms move into our area they will have lost plenty of steam. Small hail and gusty winds to 50 mph will be possible; however, the overall severe weather risk is limited.
Wednesday night's forecast gets a little tricky. If our atmosphere can recover from the morning convection, we could see redevelopment of showers and storms. Those storms during the evening will be capable of producing quarter hail and damaging winds.