February 28, 2007
GCRIO Program Overview
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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 12, DECEMBER 1995
of the Economic Effects of Global Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture," R.M.
Adams (Dept. Agric. & Resour. Econ., Oregon State Univ., Corvallis OR
97331), R.A. Fleming et al., Clim. Change,
30(2), 147-167, June 1995.
Uses three general circulation models, along with plant science and water
supply data, and economic modeling. The Goddard Institute of Space Studies model
and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory QFlux model predict aggregate
economic gains. The U.K. Meteorological Office model predicts losses. The
yield-enhancing effects of atmospheric CO2 are important in
determining potential economic consequences. The magnitude of economic effects
estimated in this study are a small percentage of U.S. agricultural value.
Pests and the Changing Climate," R. Harrington (Rothamsted Exp. Sta.,
Harpenden, Hertfordshire, UK), I.P. Woiwod, Weather,
50(6), 200-208, June 1995.
Uses 30 years of data for aphids and moths in the U.K. to detect long- and
short-term trends in insect distribution, abundance and timing during relatively
warm years. The data indicate that both aphid and moth problems in the U.K. will
probably increase as temperature rises. The five aphid species studied so far
have already changed consistent with climate change predictions. (Adapted from a
report written for Greenpeace.)
Interannual Weather Differences and Conflicting Responses Among Crop
Characteristics: The Case of Forage Quality," N.G. Seligman, T.R. Sinclair
(ARS, USDA, Univ. Florida, POB 110840, Gainesville FL 32611), Global Change
Biol., 1(2), 157-160, Apr. 1995.
Used a mechanistic simulation model of plant development and growth to
analyze the forage response to climate change. When low soil nitrogen was not a
constraining factor, higher CO2 concentration caused dry matter and
digestibility to increase and protein concentration and leaf:stem ratio to
decrease. Increased temperature had opposite effects. The combined effects of CO2
concentration and temperature are complex, and annual weather variations are
dominant. Limited reliability of crop response predictions for future decades
indicates that it may be prudent to direct research efforts toward preparing for
a wide range of climatic contingencies.
Effect on Agroclimatic Resources and Agricultural Productivity in Russia,"
O.D. Sirotenko (Russian Res. Inst. Agric. Meteor.), E.V. Abashina, Russian
Meteor. & Hydrol., No. 4, 70-79, 1994.
Estimates the effect of global warming using both general circulation model
scenarios and paleoclimatic reconstructions from the Eemian interglacial period,
which yield conflicting results. The direct effect of increased atmospheric CO2
could compensate in part for any agricultural losses, although this compensation
will be diminished by future anthropogenic degradation of soils and increased
conentrations of gases such as ozone. Whatever the effects of global warming,
they will require a radical reconstruction of the entire agricultural system.
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