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Author
Tara Roberson is a postdoctoral research fellow in responsible innovation and science communication at the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Engineered Quantum Systems. She recently completed her PhD at Australia’s National Centre for Public Awareness of Science. E-mail: t.roberson@uq.edu.au.
How to cite
Roberson, T. (2020). ‘On social change, agency, and public interest: what can science communication learn from public relations?’. JCOM 19 (02), Y01..Ga jij voor perzik of toch maar lila?
Vandaag de dag is een huwelijksfeest niet compleet zonder kleurenpalet. Voor wie door het spreekwoordelijke Pinterestbos de bomen niet meer ziet, zochten wij zes originele kleurenthema’s uit die perfect zijn voor een zomerbruiloft.
M A G N O L I A suite, in letterpress and vellum 〰️ Hand illustrated, hand lettered.
A romantic serif font mixed with modern calligraphy? Yes please! Our new Amelia wedding invitation suite makes a big statement while still remaining simple and classic. If you are looking for a gorgeous way to tie it all together, check out our new 100% custom dyed silk ribbon. Shown here in sapphire with a pretty floral envelope liner, in navy, we guarantee you will be falling hard for Amelia.
Using Machine Learning to Estimate Reservoir Parameters in Real Options Valuation of an Unexplored Oilfield


 This paper is part of a research aims to develop a realistic valuation model of an unexplored oilfield using real options approach. We consider several sources of uncertainty, i.e. exploration outcome, reserve volume and production rate, oil prices, and interest rates. We make a realistic assumption for each uncertainty source. Exploration outcome follows a Bernoulli probability distribution, oil prices follows a two-factor mean-reverting process (the Schwartz-Smith model), and interest rates follows the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model. Reserve volume and production rates are estimated using the compressible-liquid tank model with probabilistic reservoir and operational parameters. The complexity of the problem requires us to use Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the solution. An initial investigation using data from a particular reservoir found that 80% of the variance of the oilfield value was due to uncertain reservoir condition. We also found that if we could estimate those parameters accurately, the tank model has given close approximations on the reserve volume and production rates. The previous work on this issue suggested to generate parameter values from ‘similar’ reservoirs, where similarity was inferred based on lithology and depth. The probability dstribution of the parameters are assumed to be lognormal. We found this approach was rough and inaccurate. This motivated us to develop two different models to estimate those parameters.
 Our first model is an extension of the previous work using the Gaussian copula. In this model, instead of assuming lognormal probability distribution as in the previous work, we test the data against all possible distribution and choose the fittest one for each parameter. Association between parameters is modeled using the Gaussian copula. Our second model uses the exhaustive CHAID (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection) algorithm aims to estimate the net pay, porosity, initial oil saturation, initial oil formation volume factor, permeability, viscosity, initial pressure, and bottomhole pressure based on data assumed to be available prior to exploration, i.e. lithology, depth, deposition system and its confidence level, diagenetic overprint and its confidence level, structural compartmentalization and its confidence level, element of heterogeneity, and trap type. Other parameters like shape factor, skin factor, water compressibility, oil compressibility, and formation compressibility assumes some particular values.
 We use reservoir data from the Tertiary Oil Recovery Information System (TORIS) database to develop the models. We derive the CHAID model using data from 501 reservoirs which randomly divided into training set (70%) and test set (30%). We do not directly use the predicted values from the model. Instead, we use the algorithm to identify reservoirs that shared the same characteristic regarding a particular parameter, out of which the values of the parameters are generated during the simulation. We compared the results from both models and found that the CHAID-based model are more accurate.
 The novelty of this research comes from the use of machine learning to predict the values of parameters needed to estimate reserve volume and production rates in the valuation model of an unexplored oilfield. This contibutes in reducing uncertainty in the valuation of such risky assets.As does the French call the end of the holidays and the first month that life is taking back the routine of school going children, the rentrée des classes and the start of work and the reopening of shops and restaurants after the holidays, My thoughts are in Paris now.
It is the month where all the magazines talk about which books to read, which theatre pieces and concerts you have to see and what is new in every domain.
Also every fashion magazine is talking and showing us what to wear and which items are the must haves of the season.
It just means that our active life starts again…….
And indeed the normality of life get a grip on myself. Holidays and travelling are history and souvenirs and business accompanied with a more structured life is coming ahead. John and myself had long thoughts about business and creating novelties into our collections.
Collectionsof is starting to go global and by now we know better what clients are interested in.
I had the idea to start collections of brooches, beautiful small objects looking a bit dull on the revers of a coat or as a unique piece on a dress. But when put together by 3, 4, 5 or even more can make a statement. More about this in a forthcoming post.
Enjoy your rentrée and September will be a gorgeous sunny month, for sure.
Glad to be back and keep you informed.
Ciao and a bientôt
Benoit.
But this is also part of the rentrée.
Keep smiling and relaxing and enjoy music when you are in such a situation. You will get out of it anyway.
Welcome back! Autumn is a new start for sure and I wish you (and all others) a happy and sunny reentry to regular life.
Thank you so much