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Dec 9

Frontier AI Risk Management Framework in Practice: A Risk Analysis Technical Report

To understand and identify the unprecedented risks posed by rapidly advancing artificial intelligence (AI) models, this report presents a comprehensive assessment of their frontier risks. Drawing on the E-T-C analysis (deployment environment, threat source, enabling capability) from the Frontier AI Risk Management Framework (v1.0) (SafeWork-F1-Framework), we identify critical risks in seven areas: cyber offense, biological and chemical risks, persuasion and manipulation, uncontrolled autonomous AI R\&D, strategic deception and scheming, self-replication, and collusion. Guided by the "AI-45^circ Law," we evaluate these risks using "red lines" (intolerable thresholds) and "yellow lines" (early warning indicators) to define risk zones: green (manageable risk for routine deployment and continuous monitoring), yellow (requiring strengthened mitigations and controlled deployment), and red (necessitating suspension of development and/or deployment). Experimental results show that all recent frontier AI models reside in green and yellow zones, without crossing red lines. Specifically, no evaluated models cross the yellow line for cyber offense or uncontrolled AI R\&D risks. For self-replication, and strategic deception and scheming, most models remain in the green zone, except for certain reasoning models in the yellow zone. In persuasion and manipulation, most models are in the yellow zone due to their effective influence on humans. For biological and chemical risks, we are unable to rule out the possibility of most models residing in the yellow zone, although detailed threat modeling and in-depth assessment are required to make further claims. This work reflects our current understanding of AI frontier risks and urges collective action to mitigate these challenges.

Red, hot, and very metal poor: extreme properties of a massive accreting black hole in the first 500 Myr

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has recently discovered a new population of objects at high redshift referred to as `Little Red Dots' (LRDs). Their nature currently remains elusive, despite their surprisingly high inferred number densities. This emerging population of red point-like sources is reshaping our view of the early Universe and may shed light on the formation of high-redshift supermassive black holes. Here we present a spectroscopically confirmed LRD CANUCS-LRD-z8.6 at z_{rm spec}=8.6319pm 0.0005 hosting an Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN), using JWST data. This source shows the typical spectral shape of an LRD (blue UV and red optical continuum, unresolved in JWST imaging), along with broad Hbeta line emission, detection of high-ionization emission lines (CIV, NIV]) and very high electron temperature indicative of the presence of AGN. This is also combined with a very low metallicity (Z<0.1 Z_odot). The presence of all these diverse features in one source makes CANUCS-LRD-z8.6 unique. We show that the inferred black hole mass of CANUCS-LRD-z8.6 (M_{rm BH}=1.0^{+0.6}_{-0.4}times 10^{8}rm ~M_odot) strongly challenges current standard theoretical models and simulations of black hole formation, and forces us to adopt `ad hoc' prescriptions. Indeed if massive seeds, or light seeds with super-Eddington accretion, are considered, the observed BH mass of CANUCS-LRD-z8.6 at z=8.6 can be reproduced. Moreover, the black hole is over-massive compared to its host, relative to the local M_{rm BH}-M_* relations, pointing towards an earlier and faster evolution of the black hole compared to its host galaxy.

  • 32 authors
·
Dec 6, 2024

Extremely Dense Gas around Little Red Dots and High-redshift Active Galactic Nuclei: A Non-stellar Origin of the Balmer Break and Absorption Features

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has uncovered low-luminosity active galactic nuclei (AGNs) at high redshifts of zgtrsim 4-7, powered by accreting black holes (BHs) with masses of sim 10^{6-8}~M_odot. One remarkable distinction of these JWST-identified AGNs, compared to their low-redshift counterparts, is that at least sim 20% of them present Halpha and/or Hbeta absorption, which must be associated with extremely dense (gtrsim 10^9~{rm cm}^{-3}) gas in the broad-line region or its immediate surroundings. These Balmer absorption features unavoidably imply the presence of a Balmer break caused by the same dense gas. In this Letter, we quantitatively demonstrate that a Balmer break can form in AGN spectra without stellar components, when the accretion disk is heavily embedded in dense neutral gas clumps with densities of sim 10^{9-11}~{rm cm}^{-3}, where hydrogen atoms are collisionally excited to the n=2 states and effectively absorb the AGN continuum at the bluer side of the Balmer limit. The non-stellar origin of a Balmer break offers a potential solution to the large stellar masses and densities inferred for little red dots (LRDs) when assuming that their continuum is primarily due to stellar light. Our calculations indicate that the observed Balmer absorption blueshifted by a few hundreds {rm km~s}^{-1} suggests the presence of dense outflows in the nucleus at rates exceeding the Eddington value. Other spectral features such as higher equivalent widths of broad Halpha emission and presence of OI lines observed in high-redshift AGNs including LRDs align with the predicted signatures of a dense super-Eddington accretion disk.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 12, 2024