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Feb 3

Variational Inference for SDEs Driven by Fractional Noise

We present a novel variational framework for performing inference in (neural) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Markov-approximate fractional Brownian motion (fBM). SDEs offer a versatile tool for modeling real-world continuous-time dynamic systems with inherent noise and randomness. Combining SDEs with the powerful inference capabilities of variational methods, enables the learning of representative function distributions through stochastic gradient descent. However, conventional SDEs typically assume the underlying noise to follow a Brownian motion (BM), which hinders their ability to capture long-term dependencies. In contrast, fractional Brownian motion (fBM) extends BM to encompass non-Markovian dynamics, but existing methods for inferring fBM parameters are either computationally demanding or statistically inefficient. In this paper, building upon the Markov approximation of fBM, we derive the evidence lower bound essential for efficient variational inference of posterior path measures, drawing from the well-established field of stochastic analysis. Additionally, we provide a closed-form expression to determine optimal approximation coefficients. Furthermore, we propose the use of neural networks to learn the drift, diffusion and control terms within our variational posterior, leading to the variational training of neural-SDEs. In this framework, we also optimize the Hurst index, governing the nature of our fractional noise. Beyond validation on synthetic data, we contribute a novel architecture for variational latent video prediction,-an approach that, to the best of our knowledge, enables the first variational neural-SDE application to video perception.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 19, 2023

On the matrices in B-spline collocation methods for Riesz fractional equations and their spectral properties

In this work, we focus on a fractional differential equation in Riesz form discretized by a polynomial B-spline collocation method. For an arbitrary polynomial degree p, we show that the resulting coefficient matrices possess a Toeplitz-like structure. We investigate their spectral properties via their symbol and we prove that, like for second order differential problems, also in this case the given matrices are ill-conditioned both in the low and high frequencies for large p. More precisely, in the fractional scenario the symbol has a single zero at 0 of order α, with α the fractional derivative order that ranges from 1 to 2, and it presents an exponential decay to zero at π for increasing p that becomes faster as α approaches 1. This translates in a mitigated conditioning in the low frequencies and in a deterioration in the high frequencies when compared to second order problems. Furthermore, the derivation of the symbol reveals another similarity of our problem with a classical diffusion problem. Since the entries of the coefficient matrices are defined as evaluations of fractional derivatives of the B-spline basis at the collocation points, we are able to express the central entries of the coefficient matrix as inner products of two fractional derivatives of cardinal B-splines. Finally, we perform a numerical study of the approximation behavior of polynomial B-spline collocation. This study suggests that, in line with non-fractional diffusion problems, the approximation order for smooth solutions in the fractional case is p+2-α for even p, and p+1-α for odd p.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 28, 2021

Chaos as an interpretable benchmark for forecasting and data-driven modelling

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 11, 2021

The probabilistic world

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 4, 2020

Algorithm-assisted discovery of an intrinsic order among mathematical constants

In recent decades, a growing number of discoveries in fields of mathematics have been assisted by computer algorithms, primarily for exploring large parameter spaces that humans would take too long to investigate. As computers and algorithms become more powerful, an intriguing possibility arises - the interplay between human intuition and computer algorithms can lead to discoveries of novel mathematical concepts that would otherwise remain elusive. To realize this perspective, we have developed a massively parallel computer algorithm that discovers an unprecedented number of continued fraction formulas for fundamental mathematical constants. The sheer number of formulas discovered by the algorithm unveils a novel mathematical structure that we call the conservative matrix field. Such matrix fields (1) unify thousands of existing formulas, (2) generate infinitely many new formulas, and most importantly, (3) lead to unexpected relations between different mathematical constants, including multiple integer values of the Riemann zeta function. Conservative matrix fields also enable new mathematical proofs of irrationality. In particular, we can use them to generalize the celebrated proof by Ap\'ery for the irrationality of zeta(3). Utilizing thousands of personal computers worldwide, our computer-supported research strategy demonstrates the power of experimental mathematics, highlighting the prospects of large-scale computational approaches to tackle longstanding open problems and discover unexpected connections across diverse fields of science.

  • 9 authors
·
Aug 22, 2023

Automated Search for Conjectures on Mathematical Constants using Analysis of Integer Sequences

Formulas involving fundamental mathematical constants had a great impact on various fields of science and mathematics, for example aiding in proofs of irrationality of constants. However, the discovery of such formulas has historically remained scarce, often perceived as an act of mathematical genius by great mathematicians such as Ramanujan, Euler, and Gauss. Recent efforts to automate the discovery of formulas for mathematical constants, such as the Ramanujan Machine project, relied on exhaustive search. Despite several successful discoveries, exhaustive search remains limited by the space of options that can be covered and by the need for vast amounts of computational resources. Here we propose a fundamentally different method to search for conjectures on mathematical constants: through analysis of integer sequences. We introduce the Enumerated Signed-continued-fraction Massey Approve (ESMA) algorithm, which builds on the Berlekamp-Massey algorithm to identify patterns in integer sequences that represent mathematical constants. The ESMA algorithm found various known formulas for e, e^2, tan(1), and ratios of values of Bessel functions. The algorithm further discovered a large number of new conjectures for these constants, some providing simpler representations and some providing faster numerical convergence than the corresponding simple continued fractions. Along with the algorithm, we present mathematical tools for manipulating continued fractions. These connections enable us to characterize what space of constants can be found by ESMA and quantify its algorithmic advantage in certain scenarios. Altogether, this work continues in the development of augmenting mathematical intuition by computer algorithms, to help reveal mathematical structures and accelerate mathematical research.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 13, 2022

Nonequilibrium Phenomena in Driven and Active Coulomb Field Theories

The classical Coulomb gas model has served as one of the most versatile frameworks in statistical physics, connecting a vast range of phenomena across many different areas. Nonequilibrium generalisations of this model have so far been studied much more scarcely. With the abundance of contemporary research into active and driven systems, one would naturally expect that such generalisations of systems with long-ranged Coulomb-like interactions will form a fertile playground for interesting developments. Here, we present two examples of novel macroscopic behaviour that arise from nonequilibrium fluctuations in long-range interacting systems, namely (1) unscreened long-ranged correlations in strong electrolytes driven by an external electric field and the associated fluctuation-induced forces in the confined Casimir geometry, and (2) out-of-equilibrium critical behaviour in self-chemotactic models that incorporate the particle polarity in the chemotactic response of the cells. Both of these systems have nonlocal Coulomb-like interactions among their constituent particles, namely, the electrostatic interactions in the case of the driven electrolyte, and the chemotactic forces mediated by fast-diffusing signals in the case of self-chemotactic systems. The results presented here hint to the rich phenomenology of nonequilibrium effects that can arise from strong fluctuations in Coulomb interacting systems, and a rich variety of potential future directions, which are discussed.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 1, 2022

Mathematical modelling of flow and adsorption in a gas chromatograph

In this paper, a mathematical model is developed to describe the evolution of the concentration of compounds through a gas chromatography column. The model couples mass balances and kinetic equations for all components. Both single and multiple-component cases are considered with constant or variable velocity. Non-dimensionalisation indicates the small effect of diffusion. The system where diffusion is neglected is analysed using Laplace transforms. In the multiple-component case, it is demonstrated that the competition between the compounds is negligible and the equations may be decoupled. This reduces the problem to solving a single integral equation to determine the concentration profile for all components (since they are scaled versions of each other). For a given analyte, we then only two parameters need to be fitted to the data. To verify this approach, the full governing equations are also solved numerically using the finite difference method and a global adaptive quadrature method to integrate the Laplace transformation. Comparison with the Laplace solution verifies the high degree of accuracy of the simpler Laplace form. The Laplace solution is then verified against experimental data from BTEX chromatography. This novel method, which involves solving a single equation and fitting parameters in pairs for individual components, is highly efficient. It is significantly faster and simpler than the full numerical solution and avoids the computationally expensive methods that would normally be used to fit all curves at the same time.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 7, 2024

Leslie Population Models in Predator-prey and Competitive populations: theory and applications by machine learning

We introduce a new predator-prey model by replacing the growth and predation constant by a square matrix, and the population density as a population vector. The classical Lotka-Volterra model describes a population that either modulates or converges. Stability analysis of such models have been extensively studied by the works of Merdan (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2007.06.062). The new model adds complexity by introducing an age group structure where the population of each age group evolves as prescribed by the Leslie matrix. The added complexity changes the behavior of the model such that the population either displays roughly an exponential growth or decay. We first provide an exact equation that describes a time evolution and use analytic techniques to obtain an approximate growth factor. We also discuss the variants of the Leslie model, i.e., the complex value predator-prey model and the competitive model. We then prove the Last Species Standing theorem that determines the dominant population in the large time limit. The recursive structure of the model denies the application of simple regression. We discuss a machine learning scheme that allows an admissible fit for the population evolution of Paramecium Aurelia and Paramecium Caudatum. Another potential avenue to simplify the computation is to use the machinery of quantum operators. We demonstrate the potential of this approach by computing the Hamiltonian of a simple Leslie system.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 20, 2024

A Low-complexity Structured Neural Network to Realize States of Dynamical Systems

Data-driven learning is rapidly evolving and places a new perspective on realizing state-space dynamical systems. However, dynamical systems derived from nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) suffer from limitations in computational efficiency. Thus, this paper stems from data-driven learning to advance states of dynamical systems utilizing a structured neural network (StNN). The proposed learning technique also seeks to identify an optimal, low-complexity operator to solve dynamical systems, the so-called Hankel operator, derived from time-delay measurements. Thus, we utilize the StNN based on the Hankel operator to solve dynamical systems as an alternative to existing data-driven techniques. We show that the proposed StNN reduces the number of parameters and computational complexity compared with the conventional neural networks and also with the classical data-driven techniques, such as Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) and Hankel Alternative view of Koopman (HAVOK), which is commonly known as delay-Dynamic Mode Decomposition(DMD) or Hankel-DMD. More specifically, we present numerical simulations to solve dynamical systems utilizing the StNN based on the Hankel operator beginning from the fundamental Lotka-Volterra model, where we compare the StNN with the LEarning Across Dynamical Systems (LEADS), and extend our analysis to highly nonlinear and chaotic Lorenz systems, comparing the StNN with conventional neural networks, SINDy, and HAVOK. Hence, we show that the proposed StNN paves the way for realizing state-space dynamical systems with a low-complexity learning algorithm, enabling prediction and understanding of future states.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 30, 2025