Daily Papers

Although appearance-based point-of-gaze (PoG) estimation has improved, the estimators still struggle to generalize across individuals due to personal differences. Therefore, person-specific calibration is required for accurate PoG estimation. However, calibrated PoG estimators are often sensitive to head pose variations. To address this, we investigate the key factors influencing calibrated estimators and explore pose-robust calibration strategies. Specifically, we first construct a benchmark, MobilePoG, which includes facial images from 32 individuals focusing on designated points under either fixed or continuously changing head poses. Using this benchmark, we systematically analyze how the diversity of calibration points and head poses influences estimation accuracy. Our experiments show that introducing a wider range of head poses during calibration improves the estimator's ability to handle pose variation. Building on this insight, we propose a dynamic calibration strategy in which users fixate on calibration points while moving their phones. This strategy naturally introduces head pose variation during a user-friendly and efficient calibration process, ultimately producing a better calibrated PoG estimator that is less sensitive to head pose variations than those using conventional calibration strategies. Codes and datasets are available at our project page.

Uncertainty estimation is a significant issue for current large language models (LLMs) that are generally poorly calibrated and over-confident, especially with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Unlike humans, whose decisions and confidences not only stem from intrinsic beliefs but can also be adjusted through daily observations, existing calibration methods for LLMs focus on estimating or eliciting individual confidence without taking full advantage of the "Collective Wisdom": the interaction among multiple LLMs that can collectively improve both accuracy and calibration. In this work, we propose Collaborative Calibration, a post-hoc training-free calibration strategy that leverages the collaborative and expressive capabilities of multiple tool-augmented LLM agents in a simulated group deliberation process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Collaborative Calibration on generative QA tasks across various domains, showing its potential in harnessing the rationalization of collectively calibrated confidence assessments and improving the reliability of model predictions.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) is crucial for deploying efficient object detection models, like YOLO, on resource-constrained devices. However, the impact of reduced precision on model robustness to real-world input degradations such as noise, blur, and compression artifacts is a significant concern. This paper presents a comprehensive empirical study evaluating the robustness of YOLO models (nano to extra-large scales) across multiple precision formats: FP32, FP16 (TensorRT), Dynamic UINT8 (ONNX), and Static INT8 (TensorRT). We introduce and evaluate a degradation-aware calibration strategy for Static INT8 PTQ, where the TensorRT calibration process is exposed to a mix of clean and synthetically degraded images. Models were benchmarked on the COCO dataset under seven distinct degradation conditions (including various types and levels of noise, blur, low contrast, and JPEG compression) and a mixed-degradation scenario. Results indicate that while Static INT8 TensorRT engines offer substantial speedups (~1.5-3.3x) with a moderate accuracy drop (~3-7% mAP50-95) on clean data, the proposed degradation-aware calibration did not yield consistent, broad improvements in robustness over standard clean-data calibration across most models and degradations. A notable exception was observed for larger model scales under specific noise conditions, suggesting model capacity may influence the efficacy of this calibration approach. These findings highlight the challenges in enhancing PTQ robustness and provide insights for deploying quantized detectors in uncontrolled environments. All code and evaluation tables are available at https://github.com/AllanK24/QRID.

Image-based head swapping task aims to stitch a source head to another source body flawlessly. This seldom-studied task faces two major challenges: 1) Preserving the head and body from various sources while generating a seamless transition region. 2) No paired head swapping dataset and benchmark so far. In this paper, we propose a semantic-mixing diffusion model for head swapping (HS-Diffusion) which consists of a latent diffusion model (LDM) and a semantic layout generator. We blend the semantic layouts of source head and source body, and then inpaint the transition region by the semantic layout generator, achieving a coarse-grained head swapping. Semantic-mixing LDM can further implement a fine-grained head swapping with the inpainted layout as condition by a progressive fusion process, while preserving head and body with high-quality reconstruction. To this end, we propose a semantic calibration strategy for natural inpainting and a neck alignment for geometric realism. Importantly, we construct a new image-based head swapping benchmark and design two tailor-designed metrics (Mask-FID and Focal-FID). Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our framework. The code will be available: https://github.com/qinghew/HS-Diffusion.

Understanding verbs is crucial to modelling how people and objects interact with each other and the environment through space and time. Recently, state-of-the-art video-language models based on CLIP have been shown to have limited verb understanding and to rely extensively on nouns, restricting their performance in real-world video applications that require action and temporal understanding. In this work, we improve verb understanding for CLIP-based video-language models by proposing a new Verb-Focused Contrastive (VFC) framework. This consists of two main components: (1) leveraging pretrained large language models (LLMs) to create hard negatives for cross-modal contrastive learning, together with a calibration strategy to balance the occurrence of concepts in positive and negative pairs; and (2) enforcing a fine-grained, verb phrase alignment loss. Our method achieves state-of-the-art results for zero-shot performance on three downstream tasks that focus on verb understanding: video-text matching, video question-answering and video classification. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work which proposes a method to alleviate the verb understanding problem, and does not simply highlight it.

Few-Shot Class-Incremental Learning (FSCIL) focuses on models learning new concepts from limited data while retaining knowledge of previous classes. Recently, many studies have started to leverage unlabeled samples to assist models in learning from few-shot samples, giving rise to the field of Semi-supervised Few-shot Class-Incremental Learning (Semi-FSCIL). However, these studies often assume that the source of unlabeled data is only confined to novel classes of the current session, which presents a narrow perspective and cannot align well with practical scenarios. To better reflect real-world scenarios, we redefine Semi-FSCIL as Generalized Semi-FSCIL (GSemi-FSCIL) by incorporating both base and all the ever-seen novel classes in the unlabeled set. This change in the composition of unlabeled samples poses a new challenge for existing methods, as they struggle to distinguish between unlabeled samples from base and novel classes. To address this issue, we propose an Ambiguity-guided Learnable Distribution Calibration (ALDC) strategy. ALDC dynamically uses abundant base samples to correct biased feature distributions for few-shot novel classes. Experiments on three benchmark datasets show that our method outperforms existing works, setting new state-of-the-art results.

Real-world scenarios are usually accompanied by continuously appearing classes with scare labeled samples, which require the machine learning model to incrementally learn new classes and maintain the knowledge of base classes. In this Few-Shot Class-Incremental Learning (FSCIL) scenario, existing methods either introduce extra learnable components or rely on a frozen feature extractor to mitigate catastrophic forgetting and overfitting problems. However, we find a tendency for existing methods to misclassify the samples of new classes into base classes, which leads to the poor performance of new classes. In other words, the strong discriminability of base classes distracts the classification of new classes. To figure out this intriguing phenomenon, we observe that although the feature extractor is only trained on base classes, it can surprisingly represent the semantic similarity between the base and unseen new classes. Building upon these analyses, we propose a simple yet effective Training-frEE calibratioN (TEEN) strategy to enhance the discriminability of new classes by fusing the new prototypes (i.e., mean features of a class) with weighted base prototypes. In addition to standard benchmarks in FSCIL, TEEN demonstrates remarkable performance and consistent improvements over baseline methods in the few-shot learning scenario. Code is available at: https://github.com/wangkiw/TEEN

Structured pruning of large language models (LLMs) offers substantial efficiency improvements by removing entire hidden units, yet current approaches often suffer from significant performance degradation, particularly in zero-shot settings, and necessitate costly recovery techniques such as supervised fine-tuning (SFT) or adapter insertion. To address these critical shortcomings, we introduce NIRVANA, a novel pruning method explicitly designed to balance immediate zero-shot accuracy preservation with robust fine-tuning capability. Leveraging a first-order saliency criterion derived from the Neural Tangent Kernel under Adam optimization dynamics, NIRVANA provides a theoretically grounded pruning strategy that respects essential model training behaviors. To further address the unique challenges posed by structured pruning, NIRVANA incorporates an adaptive sparsity allocation mechanism across layers and modules (attention vs. MLP), which adjusts pruning intensity between modules in a globally balanced manner. Additionally, to mitigate the high sensitivity of pruning decisions to calibration data quality, we propose a simple yet effective KL divergence-based calibration data selection strategy, ensuring more reliable and task-agnostic pruning outcomes. Comprehensive experiments conducted on Llama3, Qwen, and T5 models demonstrate that NIRVANA outperforms existing structured pruning methods under equivalent sparsity constraints, providing a theoretically sound and practical approach to LLM compression. The code is available at https://github.com/iDEA-iSAIL-Lab-UIUC/NIRVANA.

Post-training compression of large language models (LLMs) largely relies on low-rank weight approximation, which represents each column of a weight matrix in a shared low-dimensional subspace. While this is a computationally efficient strategy, the imposed structural constraint is rigid and can lead to a noticeable model accuracy drop. In this work, we propose CoSpaDi (Compression via Sparse Dictionary Learning), a novel training-free compression framework that replaces low-rank decomposition with a more flexible structured sparse factorization in which each weight matrix is represented with a dense dictionary and a column-sparse coefficient matrix. This formulation enables a union-of-subspaces representation: different columns of the original weight matrix are approximated in distinct subspaces spanned by adaptively selected dictionary atoms, offering greater expressiveness than a single invariant basis. Crucially, CoSpaDi leverages a small calibration dataset to optimize the factorization such that the output activations of compressed projection layers closely match those of the original ones, thereby minimizing functional reconstruction error rather than mere weight approximation. This data-aware strategy preserves better model fidelity without any fine-tuning under reasonable compression ratios. Moreover, the resulting structured sparsity allows efficient sparse-dense matrix multiplication and is compatible with post-training quantization for further memory and latency gains. We evaluate CoSpaDi across multiple Llama and Qwen models under per-layer and per-group settings at 20-50\% compression ratios, demonstrating consistent superiority over state-of-the-art data-aware low-rank methods both in accuracy and perplexity. Our results establish structured sparse dictionary learning as a powerful alternative to conventional low-rank approaches for efficient LLM deployment.

Summarization models often generate text that is poorly calibrated to quality metrics because they are trained to maximize the likelihood of a single reference (MLE). To address this, recent work has added a calibration step, which exposes a model to its own ranked outputs to improve relevance or, in a separate line of work, contrasts positive and negative sets to improve faithfulness. While effective, much of this work has focused on how to generate and optimize these sets. Less is known about why one setup is more effective than another. In this work, we uncover the underlying characteristics of effective sets. For each training instance, we form a large, diverse pool of candidates and systematically vary the subsets used for calibration fine-tuning. Each selection strategy targets distinct aspects of the sets, such as lexical diversity or the size of the gap between positive and negatives. On three diverse scientific long-form summarization datasets (spanning biomedical, clinical, and chemical domains), we find, among others, that faithfulness calibration is optimal when the negative sets are extractive and more likely to be generated, whereas for relevance calibration, the metric margin between candidates should be maximized and surprise--the disagreement between model and metric defined candidate rankings--minimized. Code to create, select, and optimize calibration sets is available at https://github.com/griff4692/calibrating-summaries

Markerless multiview motion capture is often constrained by the need for precise camera calibration, limiting accessibility for non-experts and in-the-wild captures. Existing calibration-free approaches mitigate this requirement but suffer from high computational cost and reduced reconstruction accuracy. We present Kineo, a fully automatic, calibration-free pipeline for markerless motion capture from videos captured by unsynchronized, uncalibrated, consumer-grade RGB cameras. Kineo leverages 2D keypoints from off-the-shelf detectors to simultaneously calibrate cameras, including Brown-Conrady distortion coefficients, and reconstruct 3D keypoints and dense scene point maps at metric scale. A confidence-driven spatio-temporal keypoint sampling strategy, combined with graph-based global optimization, ensures robust calibration at a fixed computational cost independent of sequence length. We further introduce a pairwise reprojection consensus score to quantify 3D reconstruction reliability for downstream tasks. Evaluations on EgoHumans and Human3.6M demonstrate substantial improvements over prior calibration-free methods. Compared to previous state-of-the-art approaches, Kineo reduces camera translation error by approximately 83-85%, camera angular error by 86-92%, and world mean-per-joint error (W-MPJPE) by 83-91%. Kineo is also efficient in real-world scenarios, processing multi-view sequences faster than their duration in specific configuration (e.g., 36min to process 1h20min of footage). The full pipeline and evaluation code are openly released to promote reproducibility and practical adoption at https://liris-xr.github.io/kineo/.

The deployment of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) has demonstrated remarkable success in engaging in conversations involving visual inputs, thanks to the superior power of large language models (LLMs). Those MLLMs are typically built based on the LLMs, with an image encoder to process images into the token embedding space of the LLMs. However, the integration of visual modality has introduced a unique vulnerability: the MLLM becomes susceptible to malicious visual inputs and prone to generating sensitive or harmful responses, even though the LLM has been trained on textual dataset to align with human value. In this paper, we first raise the question: ``Do the MLLMs possess safety-awareness against malicious image inputs?". We find that after adding a principle that specifies the safety requirement into the input of the MLLM, the model's safety awareness becomes boosted. This phenomenon verifies the existence of MLLM's safety-awareness against image inputs, it is only weakened by the modality gap. We then introduce a simple yet effective technique termed CoCA, which amplifies the safety-awareness of the MLLM by calibrating its output distribution. Our proposed strategy helps the model reclaim its original safety awareness without losing its original capabilities. We verify the effectiveness of our approach on both multimodal safety and understanding benchmarks.

Chinese Spelling Correction (CSC) commonly lacks large-scale high-quality corpora, due to the labor-intensive labeling of spelling errors in real-life human writing or typing scenarios. Two data augmentation methods are widely adopted: (1) Random Replacement with the guidance of confusion sets and (2) OCR/ASR-based Generation that simulates character misusing. However, both methods inevitably introduce noisy data (e.g., false spelling errors), potentially leading to over-correction. By carefully analyzing the two types of corpora, we find that though the latter achieves more robust generalization performance, the former yields better-calibrated CSC models. We then provide a theoretical analysis of this empirical observation, based on which a corpus refining strategy is proposed. Specifically, OCR/ASR-based data samples are fed into a well-calibrated CSC model trained on random replacement-based corpora and then filtered based on prediction confidence. By learning a simple BERT-based model on the refined OCR/ASR-based corpus, we set up impressive state-of-the-art performance on three widely-used benchmarks, while significantly alleviating over-correction (e.g., lowering false positive predictions).

Prompt engineering and calibration make large language models excel at reasoning tasks, including multiple choice commonsense reasoning. From a practical perspective, we investigate and evaluate these strategies on smaller language models. Through experiments on five commonsense reasoning benchmarks, we find that each strategy favors certain models, but their joint effects are mostly negative.

Open Vocabulary Human-Object Interaction (HOI) detection aims to detect interactions between humans and objects while generalizing to novel interaction classes beyond the training set. Current methods often rely on Vision and Language Models (VLMs) but face challenges due to suboptimal image encoders, as image-level pre-training does not align well with the fine-grained region-level interaction detection required for HOI. Additionally, effectively encoding textual descriptions of visual appearances remains difficult, limiting the model's ability to capture detailed HOI relationships. To address these issues, we propose INteraction-aware Prompting with Concept Calibration (INP-CC), an end-to-end open-vocabulary HOI detector that integrates interaction-aware prompts and concept calibration. Specifically, we propose an interaction-aware prompt generator that dynamically generates a compact set of prompts based on the input scene, enabling selective sharing among similar interactions. This approach directs the model's attention to key interaction patterns rather than generic image-level semantics, enhancing HOI detection. Furthermore, we refine HOI concept representations through language model-guided calibration, which helps distinguish diverse HOI concepts by investigating visual similarities across categories. A negative sampling strategy is also employed to improve inter-modal similarity modeling, enabling the model to better differentiate visually similar but semantically distinct actions. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that INP-CC significantly outperforms state-of-the-art models on the SWIG-HOI and HICO-DET datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/ltttpku/INP-CC.

Post-training quantization has emerged as the most widely used strategy for deploying large language models at low precision. Still, current methods show perplexity degradation at bit-widths less than or equal to 4, partly because representing outliers causes precision issues in parameters that share the same scales as these outliers. This problem is especially pronounced for calibration-free, uniform quantization methods. We introduce SINQ to augment existing post-training quantizers with an additional second-axis scale factor and a fast Sinkhorn-Knopp-style algorithm that finds scales to normalize per-row and per-column variances, thereby minimizing a novel per-matrix proxy target for quantization: the matrix imbalance. Our method has no interactions between layers and can be trivially applied to new architectures to quantize any linear layers. We evaluate our method on the Qwen3 model family and DeepSeek-V2.5. SINQ improves WikiText2 and C4 perplexity significantly against uncalibrated uniform quantization baselines and can be further enhanced by combining it with calibration and non-uniform quantization levels. Code to reproduce the results of this work and to easily quantize models using SINQ is available at https://github.com/huawei-csl/SINQ.

In order to improve the quality of synthesized videos, currently, one predominant method involves retraining an expert diffusion model and then implementing a noising-denoising process for refinement. Despite the significant training costs, maintaining consistency of content between the original and enhanced videos remains a major challenge. To tackle this challenge, we propose a novel formulation that considers both visual quality and consistency of content. Consistency of content is ensured by a proposed loss function that maintains the structure of the input, while visual quality is improved by utilizing the denoising process of pretrained diffusion models. To address the formulated optimization problem, we have developed a plug-and-play noise optimization strategy, referred to as Noise Calibration. By refining the initial random noise through a few iterations, the content of original video can be largely preserved, and the enhancement effect demonstrates a notable improvement. Extensive experiments have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Recent advancements in pre-trained vision-language models, such as CLIP, have enabled the segmentation of arbitrary concepts solely from textual inputs, a process commonly referred to as open-vocabulary semantic segmentation (OVS). However, existing OVS techniques confront a fundamental challenge: the trained classifier tends to overfit on the base classes observed during training, resulting in suboptimal generalization performance to unseen classes. To mitigate this issue, recent studies have proposed the use of an additional frozen pre-trained CLIP for classification. Nonetheless, this approach incurs heavy computational overheads as the CLIP vision encoder must be repeatedly forward-passed for each mask, rendering it impractical for real-world applications. To address this challenge, our objective is to develop a fast OVS model that can perform comparably or better without the extra computational burden of the CLIP image encoder during inference. To this end, we propose a core idea of preserving the generalizable representation when fine-tuning on known classes. Specifically, we introduce a text diversification strategy that generates a set of synonyms for each training category, which prevents the learned representation from collapsing onto specific known category names. Additionally, we employ a text-guided knowledge distillation method to preserve the generalizable knowledge of CLIP. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed model achieves robust generalization performance across various datasets. Furthermore, we perform a preliminary exploration of open-vocabulary video segmentation and present a benchmark that can facilitate future open-vocabulary research in the video domain.

Pruning deep neural networks is a widely used strategy to alleviate the computational burden in machine learning. Overwhelming empirical evidence suggests that pruned models retain very high accuracy even with a tiny fraction of parameters. However, relatively little work has gone into characterising the small pruned networks obtained, beyond a measure of their accuracy. In this paper, we use the sparse double descent approach to identify univocally and characterise pruned models associated with classification tasks. We observe empirically that, for a given task, iterative magnitude pruning (IMP) tends to converge to networks of comparable sizes even when starting from full networks with sizes ranging over orders of magnitude. We analyse the best pruned models in a controlled experimental setup and show that their number of parameters reflects task difficulty and that they are much better than full networks at capturing the true conditional probability distribution of the labels. On real data, we similarly observe that pruned models are less prone to overconfident predictions. Our results suggest that pruned models obtained via IMP not only have advantageous computational properties but also provide a better representation of uncertainty in learning.

Recent advances in masked diffusion models (MDMs) have established them as powerful non-autoregressive alternatives for sequence generation. Nevertheless, our preliminary experiments reveal that the generation quality of MDMs is still highly sensitive to the choice of decoding strategy. In particular, widely adopted uncertainty-based samplers suffer from two key limitations: a lack of global trajectory control and a pronounced bias toward trivial tokens in the early stages of decoding. These shortcomings restrict the full potential of MDMs. In this work, we introduce Position-Aware Confidence-Calibrated Sampling (PC-Sampler), a novel decoding strategy that unifies global trajectory planning with content-aware informativeness maximization. PC-Sampler incorporates a position-aware weighting mechanism to regulate the decoding path and a calibrated confidence score to suppress the premature selection of trivial tokens. Extensive experiments on three advanced MDMs across seven challenging benchmarks-including logical reasoning and planning tasks-demonstrate that PC-Sampler consistently outperforms existing MDM decoding strategies by more than 10% on average, significantly narrowing the performance gap with state-of-the-art autoregressive models. All codes are available at https://github.com/NEUIR/PC-Sampler.

Uncertainty quantification is essential for assessing the reliability and trustworthiness of modern AI systems. Among existing approaches, verbalized uncertainty, where models express their confidence through natural language, has emerged as a lightweight and interpretable solution in large language models (LLMs). However, its effectiveness in vision-language models (VLMs) remains insufficiently studied. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of verbalized confidence in VLMs, spanning three model categories, four task domains, and three evaluation scenarios. Our results show that current VLMs often display notable miscalibration across diverse tasks and settings. Notably, visual reasoning models (i.e., thinking with images) consistently exhibit better calibration, suggesting that modality-specific reasoning is critical for reliable uncertainty estimation. To further address calibration challenges, we introduce Visual Confidence-Aware Prompting, a two-stage prompting strategy that improves confidence alignment in multimodal settings. Overall, our study highlights the inherent miscalibration in VLMs across modalities. More broadly, our findings underscore the fundamental importance of modality alignment and model faithfulness in advancing reliable multimodal systems.

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

A key challenge in graph out-of-distribution (OOD) detection lies in the absence of ground-truth OOD samples during training. Existing methods are typically optimized to capture features within the in-distribution (ID) data and calculate OOD scores, which often limits pre-trained models from representing distributional boundaries, leading to unreliable OOD detection. Moreover, the latent structure of graph data is often governed by multiple underlying factors, which remains less explored. To address these challenges, we propose a novel test-time graph OOD detection method, termed BaCa, that calibrates OOD scores using dual dynamically updated dictionaries without requiring fine-tuning the pre-trained model. Specifically, BaCa estimates graphons and applies a mix-up strategy solely with test samples to generate diverse boundary-aware discriminative topologies, eliminating the need for exposing auxiliary datasets as outliers. We construct dual dynamic dictionaries via priority queues and attention mechanisms to adaptively capture latent ID and OOD representations, which are then utilized for boundary-aware OOD score calibration. To the best of our knowledge, extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that BaCa significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in OOD detection.

Leveraging diverse robotic data for pretraining remains a critical challenge. Existing methods typically model the dataset's action distribution using simple observations as inputs. However, these inputs are often incomplete, resulting in a dispersed conditional action distribution-an issue we refer to as coordinate system chaos and state chaos. This inconsistency significantly hampers pretraining efficiency. To address this, we propose 4D-VLA, a novel approach that effectively integrates 4D information into the input to mitigate these sources of chaos. Our model introduces depth and temporal information into visual features with sequential RGB-D inputs, aligning the coordinate systems of the robot and the scene. This alignment endows the model with strong spatiotemporal reasoning capabilities while minimizing training overhead. Additionally, we introduce memory bank sampling, a frame sampling strategy designed to extract informative frames from historical images, further improving effectiveness and efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate that our pretraining method and architectural components substantially enhance model performance. In both simulated and real-world experiments, our model achieves a significant increase in success rate over OpenVLA. To further assess spatial perception and generalization to novel views, we introduce MV-Bench, a multi-view simulation benchmark. Our model consistently outperforms existing methods, demonstrating stronger spatial understanding and adaptability.

Process reward models (PRMs) play a central role in guiding inference-time scaling algorithms for large language models (LLMs). However, we observe that even state-of-the-art PRMs can be poorly calibrated and often overestimate success probabilities. To address this, we present a calibration approach, performed via quantile regression, that adjusts PRM outputs to better align with true success probabilities. Leveraging these calibrated success estimates and their associated confidence bounds, we introduce an instance-adaptive scaling (IAS) framework that dynamically adjusts the inference budget based on the estimated likelihood that a partial reasoning trajectory will yield a correct final answer. Unlike conventional methods that allocate a fixed number of reasoning trajectories per query, this approach successfully adapts to each instance and reasoning step when using our calibrated PRMs. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that (i) our PRM calibration method successfully achieves small calibration error, outperforming the baseline methods, (ii) calibration is crucial for enabling effective adaptive scaling, and (iii) the proposed IAS strategy reduces inference costs while maintaining final answer accuracy, utilizing less compute on more confident problems as desired.

Recent unified multi-modal encoders align a wide range of modalities into a shared representation space, enabling diverse cross-modal tasks. Despite their impressive capabilities, the robustness of these models under adversarial perturbations remains underexplored, which is a critical concern for safety-sensitive applications. In this work, we present the first comprehensive study of adversarial vulnerability in unified multi-modal encoders. We find that even mild adversarial perturbations lead to substantial performance drops across all modalities. Non-visual inputs, such as audio and point clouds, are especially fragile, while visual inputs like images and videos also degrade significantly. To address this, we propose an efficient adversarial calibration framework that improves robustness across modalities without modifying pretrained encoders or semantic centers, ensuring compatibility with existing foundation models. Our method introduces modality-specific projection heads trained solely on adversarial examples, while keeping the backbone and embeddings frozen. We explore three training objectives: fixed-center cross-entropy, clean-to-adversarial L2 alignment, and clean-adversarial InfoNCE, and we introduce a regularization strategy to ensure modality-consistent alignment under attack. Experiments on six modalities and three Bind-style models show that our method improves adversarial robustness by up to 47.3 percent at epsilon = 4/255, while preserving or even improving clean zero-shot and retrieval performance with less than 1 percent trainable parameters.

Collaborative perception enhances sensing in multirobot and vehicular networks by fusing information from multiple agents, improving perception accuracy and sensing range. However, mobility and non-rigid sensor mounts introduce extrinsic calibration errors, necessitating online calibration, further complicated by limited overlap in sensing regions. Moreover, maintaining fresh information is crucial for timely and accurate sensing. To address calibration errors and ensure timely and accurate perception, we propose a robust task-oriented communication strategy to optimize online self-calibration and efficient feature sharing for Real-time Adaptive Collaborative Perception (R-ACP). Specifically, we first formulate an Age of Perceived Targets (AoPT) minimization problem to capture data timeliness of multi-view streaming. Then, in the calibration phase, we introduce a channel-aware self-calibration technique based on reidentification (Re-ID), which adaptively compresses key features according to channel capacities, effectively addressing calibration issues via spatial and temporal cross-camera correlations. In the streaming phase, we tackle the trade-off between bandwidth and inference accuracy by leveraging an Information Bottleneck (IB) based encoding method to adjust video compression rates based on task relevance, thereby reducing communication overhead and latency. Finally, we design a priority-aware network to filter corrupted features to mitigate performance degradation from packet corruption. Extensive studies demonstrate that our framework outperforms five baselines, improving multiple object detection accuracy (MODA) by 25.49% and reducing communication costs by 51.36% under severely poor channel conditions. Code will be made publicly available: github.com/fangzr/R-ACP.

We propose Dataset Reinforcement, a strategy to improve a dataset once such that the accuracy of any model architecture trained on the reinforced dataset is improved at no additional training cost for users. We propose a Dataset Reinforcement strategy based on data augmentation and knowledge distillation. Our generic strategy is designed based on extensive analysis across CNN- and transformer-based models and performing large-scale study of distillation with state-of-the-art models with various data augmentations. We create a reinforced version of the ImageNet training dataset, called ImageNet+, as well as reinforced datasets CIFAR-100+, Flowers-102+, and Food-101+. Models trained with ImageNet+ are more accurate, robust, and calibrated, and transfer well to downstream tasks (e.g., segmentation and detection). As an example, the accuracy of ResNet-50 improves by 1.7% on the ImageNet validation set, 3.5% on ImageNetV2, and 10.0% on ImageNet-R. Expected Calibration Error (ECE) on the ImageNet validation set is also reduced by 9.9%. Using this backbone with Mask-RCNN for object detection on MS-COCO, the mean average precision improves by 0.8%. We reach similar gains for MobileNets, ViTs, and Swin-Transformers. For MobileNetV3 and Swin-Tiny we observe significant improvements on ImageNet-R/A/C of up to 10% improved robustness. Models pretrained on ImageNet+ and fine-tuned on CIFAR-100+, Flowers-102+, and Food-101+, reach up to 3.4% improved accuracy.

Mixup is a data augmentation strategy that employs convex combinations of training instances and their respective labels to augment the robustness and calibration of deep neural networks. Despite its widespread adoption, the nuanced mechanisms that underpin its success are not entirely understood. The observed phenomenon of Neural Collapse, where the last-layer activations and classifier of deep networks converge to a simplex equiangular tight frame (ETF), provides a compelling motivation to explore whether mixup induces alternative geometric configurations and whether those could explain its success. In this study, we delve into the last-layer activations of training data for deep networks subjected to mixup, aiming to uncover insights into its operational efficacy. Our investigation, spanning various architectures and dataset pairs, reveals that mixup's last-layer activations predominantly converge to a distinctive configuration different than one might expect. In this configuration, activations from mixed-up examples of identical classes align with the classifier, while those from different classes delineate channels along the decision boundary. Moreover, activations in earlier layers exhibit patterns, as if trained with manifold mixup. These findings are unexpected, as mixed-up features are not simple convex combinations of feature class means (as one might get, for example, by training mixup with the mean squared error loss). By analyzing this distinctive geometric configuration, we elucidate the mechanisms by which mixup enhances model calibration. To further validate our empirical observations, we conduct a theoretical analysis under the assumption of an unconstrained features model, utilizing the mixup loss. Through this, we characterize and derive the optimal last-layer features under the assumption that the classifier forms a simplex ETF.

Can we teach Large Language Models (LLMs) to refrain from hallucinating factual statements? In this paper we present a fine-tuning strategy that we call ConfQA, which can reduce hallucination rate from 20-40% to under 5% across multiple factuality benchmarks. The core idea is simple: when the LLM answers a question correctly, it is trained to continue with the answer; otherwise, it is trained to admit "I am unsure". But there are two key factors that make the training highly effective. First, we introduce a dampening prompt "answer only if you are confident" to explicitly guide the behavior, without which hallucination remains high as 15%-25%. Second, we leverage simple factual statements, specifically attribute values from knowledge graphs, to help LLMs calibrate the confidence, resulting in robust generalization across domains and question types. Building on this insight, we propose the Dual Neural Knowledge framework, which seamlessly select between internally parameterized neural knowledge and externally recorded symbolic knowledge based on ConfQA's confidence. The framework enables potential accuracy gains to beyond 95%, while reducing unnecessary external retrievals by over 30%.

Point management is a critical component in optimizing 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) models, as the point initiation (e.g., via structure from motion) is distributionally inappropriate. Typically, the Adaptive Density Control (ADC) algorithm is applied, leveraging view-averaged gradient magnitude thresholding for point densification, opacity thresholding for pruning, and regular all-points opacity reset. However, we reveal that this strategy is limited in tackling intricate/special image regions (e.g., transparent) as it is unable to identify all the 3D zones that require point densification, and lacking an appropriate mechanism to handle the ill-conditioned points with negative impacts (occlusion due to false high opacity). To address these limitations, we propose a Localized Point Management (LPM) strategy, capable of identifying those error-contributing zones in the highest demand for both point addition and geometry calibration. Zone identification is achieved by leveraging the underlying multiview geometry constraints, with the guidance of image rendering errors. We apply point densification in the identified zone, whilst resetting the opacity of those points residing in front of these regions so that a new opportunity is created to correct ill-conditioned points. Serving as a versatile plugin, LPM can be seamlessly integrated into existing 3D Gaussian Splatting models. Experimental evaluation across both static 3D and dynamic 4D scenes validate the efficacy of our LPM strategy in boosting a variety of existing 3DGS models both quantitatively and qualitatively. Notably, LPM improves both vanilla 3DGS and SpaceTimeGS to achieve state-of-the-art rendering quality while retaining real-time speeds, outperforming on challenging datasets such as Tanks & Temples and the Neural 3D Video Dataset.

It is well known the adversarial optimization of GAN-based image super-resolution (SR) methods makes the preceding SR model generate unpleasant and undesirable artifacts, leading to large distortion. We attribute the cause of such distortions to the poor calibration of the discriminator, which hampers its ability to provide meaningful feedback to the generator for learning high-quality images. To address this problem, we propose a simple but non-travel diffusion-style data augmentation scheme for current GAN-based SR methods, known as DifAugGAN. It involves adapting the diffusion process in generative diffusion models for improving the calibration of the discriminator during training motivated by the successes of data augmentation schemes in the field to achieve good calibration. Our DifAugGAN can be a Plug-and-Play strategy for current GAN-based SISR methods to improve the calibration of the discriminator and thus improve SR performance. Extensive experimental evaluations demonstrate the superiority of DifAugGAN over state-of-the-art GAN-based SISR methods across both synthetic and real-world datasets, showcasing notable advancements in both qualitative and quantitative results.

As supervised fine-tuning (SFT) evolves from a lightweight post-training step into a compute-intensive phase rivaling mid-training in scale, data efficiency has become critical for aligning large language models (LLMs) under tight budgets. Existing data pruning methods suffer from a fragmented design: they operate either at the sample level or the token level in isolation, failing to jointly optimize both dimensions. This disconnect leads to significant inefficiencies--high-value samples may still contain redundant tokens, while token-level pruning often discards crucial instructional or corrective signals embedded in individual examples. To address this bottleneck, we introduce the Error-Uncertainty (EU) Plane, a diagnostic framework that jointly characterizes the heterogeneous utility of training data across samples and tokens. Guided by this insight, we propose Quadrant-based Tuning (Q-Tuning), a unified framework that strategically coordinates sample pruning and token pruning. Q-Tuning employs a two-stage strategy: first, it performs sample-level triage to retain examples rich in informative misconceptions or calibration signals; second, it applies an asymmetric token-pruning policy, using a context-aware scoring mechanism to trim less salient tokens exclusively from misconception samples while preserving calibration samples in their entirety. Our method sets a new state of the art across five diverse benchmarks. Remarkably, on SmolLM2-1.7B, Q-Tuning achieves a +38\% average improvement over the full-data SFT baseline using only 12.5\% of the original training data. As the first dynamic pruning approach to consistently outperform full-data training, Q-Tuning provides a practical and scalable blueprint for maximizing data utilization in budget-constrained LLM SFT.

Video matting is crucial for applications such as film production and virtual reality, yet deploying its computationally intensive models on resource-constrained devices presents challenges. Quantization is a key technique for model compression and acceleration. As an efficient approach, Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) is still in its nascent stages for video matting, facing significant hurdles in maintaining accuracy and temporal coherence. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel and general PTQ framework specifically designed for video matting models, marking, to the best of our knowledge, the first systematic attempt in this domain. Our contributions include: (1) A two-stage PTQ strategy that combines block-reconstruction-based optimization for fast, stable initial quantization and local dependency capture, followed by a global calibration of quantization parameters to minimize accuracy loss. (2) A Statistically-Driven Global Affine Calibration (GAC) method that enables the network to compensate for cumulative statistical distortions arising from factors such as neglected BN layer effects, even reducing the error of existing PTQ methods on video matting tasks up to 20%. (3) An Optical Flow Assistance (OFA) component that leverages temporal and semantic priors from frames to guide the PTQ process, enhancing the model's ability to distinguish moving foregrounds in complex scenes and ultimately achieving near full-precision performance even under ultra-low-bit quantization. Comprehensive quantitative and visual results show that our PTQ4VM achieves the state-of-the-art accuracy performance across different bit-widths compared to the existing quantization methods. We highlight that the 4-bit PTQ4VM even achieves performance close to the full-precision counterpart while enjoying 8x FLOP savings.

As the size of large language models (LLMs) continues to grow, model compression without sacrificing accuracy has become a crucial challenge for deployment. While some quantization methods, such as GPTQ, have made progress in achieving acceptable 4-bit weight-only quantization, attempts at lower bit quantization often result in severe performance degradation. In this paper, we introduce a technique called norm tweaking, which can be used as a plugin in current PTQ methods to achieve high precision while being cost-efficient. Our approach is inspired by the observation that rectifying the quantized activation distribution to match its float counterpart can readily restore accuracy for LLMs. To achieve this, we carefully design a tweaking strategy that includes calibration data generation and channel-wise distance constraint to update the weights of normalization layers for better generalization. We conduct extensive experiments on various datasets using several open-sourced LLMs. Our method demonstrates significant improvements in both weight-only quantization and joint quantization of weights and activations, surpassing existing PTQ methods. On GLM-130B and OPT-66B, our method even achieves the same level of accuracy at 2-bit quantization as their float ones. Our simple and effective approach makes it more practical for real-world applications.

Because stress is subjective and is expressed differently from one person to another, generic stress prediction models (i.e., models that predict the stress of any person) perform crudely. Only person-specific ones (i.e., models that predict the stress of a preordained person) yield reliable predictions, but they are not adaptable and costly to deploy in real-world environments. For illustration, in an office environment, a stress monitoring system that uses person-specific models would require collecting new data and training a new model for every employee. Moreover, once deployed, the models would deteriorate and need expensive periodic upgrades because stress is dynamic and depends on unforeseeable factors. We propose a simple, yet practical and cost effective calibration technique that derives an accurate and personalized stress prediction model from physiological samples collected from a large population. We validate our approach on two stress datasets. The results show that our technique performs much better than a generic model. For instance, a generic model achieved only a 42.5% accuracy. However, with only 100 calibration samples, we raised its accuracy to 95.2% We also propose a blueprint for a stress monitoring system based on our strategy, and we debate its merits and limitation. Finally, we made public our source code and the relevant datasets to allow other researchers to replicate our findings.

Quantization is a key technique to reduce network size and computational complexity by representing the network parameters with a lower precision. Traditional quantization methods rely on access to original training data, which is often restricted due to privacy concerns or security challenges. Zero-shot Quantization (ZSQ) addresses this by using synthetic data generated from pre-trained models, eliminating the need for real training data. Recently, ZSQ has been extended to object detection. However, existing methods use unlabeled task-agnostic synthetic images that lack the specific information required for object detection, leading to suboptimal performance. In this paper, we propose a novel task-specific ZSQ framework for object detection networks, which consists of two main stages. First, we introduce a bounding box and category sampling strategy to synthesize a task-specific calibration set from the pre-trained network, reconstructing object locations, sizes, and category distributions without any prior knowledge. Second, we integrate task-specific training into the knowledge distillation process to restore the performance of quantized detection networks. Extensive experiments conducted on the MS-COCO and Pascal VOC datasets demonstrate the efficiency and state-of-the-art performance of our method. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/DFQ-Dojo/dfq-toolkit .

We present GDFusion, a temporal fusion method for vision-based 3D semantic occupancy prediction (VisionOcc). GDFusion opens up the underexplored aspects of temporal fusion within the VisionOcc framework, focusing on both temporal cues and fusion strategies. It systematically examines the entire VisionOcc pipeline, identifying three fundamental yet previously overlooked temporal cues: scene-level consistency, motion calibration, and geometric complementation. These cues capture diverse facets of temporal evolution and make distinct contributions across various modules in the VisionOcc framework. To effectively fuse temporal signals across heterogeneous representations, we propose a novel fusion strategy by reinterpreting the formulation of vanilla RNNs. This reinterpretation leverages gradient descent on features to unify the integration of diverse temporal information, seamlessly embedding the proposed temporal cues into the network. Extensive experiments on nuScenes demonstrate that GDFusion significantly outperforms established baselines. Notably, on Occ3D benchmark, it achieves 1.4\%-4.8\% mIoU improvements and reduces memory consumption by 27\%-72\%.

Scaling up model size and training data has advanced foundation models for instance-level perception, achieving state-of-the-art in-domain and zero-shot performance across object detection and segmentation. However, their high computational cost limits adoption on resource-constrained platforms. We first examine the limitations of existing architectures in enabling efficient edge deployment without compromising performance. We then introduce MOBIUS, a family of foundation models for universal instance segmentation, designed for Pareto-optimal downscaling to support deployment across devices ranging from high-end accelerators to mobile hardware. To reduce training and inference demands, we propose: (i) a bottleneck pixel decoder for efficient multi-scale and multi-modal fusion, (ii) a language-guided uncertainty calibration loss for adaptive decoder pruning, and (iii) a streamlined, unified training strategy. Unlike efficient baselines that trade accuracy for reduced complexity, MOBIUS reduces pixel and transformer decoder FLOPs by up to 55% and 75%, respectively, while maintaining state-of-the-art performance in just a third of the training iterations. MOBIUS establishes a new benchmark for efficient segmentation on both high-performance computing platforms and mobile devices.

Large-scale text-to-image diffusion models, while powerful, suffer from prohibitive computational cost. Existing one-shot network pruning methods can hardly be directly applied to them due to the iterative denoising nature of diffusion models. To bridge the gap, this paper presents OBS-Diff, a novel one-shot pruning framework that enables accurate and training-free compression of large-scale text-to-image diffusion models. Specifically, (i) OBS-Diff revitalizes the classic Optimal Brain Surgeon (OBS), adapting it to the complex architectures of modern diffusion models and supporting diverse pruning granularity, including unstructured, N:M semi-structured, and structured (MHA heads and FFN neurons) sparsity; (ii) To align the pruning criteria with the iterative dynamics of the diffusion process, by examining the problem from an error-accumulation perspective, we propose a novel timestep-aware Hessian construction that incorporates a logarithmic-decrease weighting scheme, assigning greater importance to earlier timesteps to mitigate potential error accumulation; (iii) Furthermore, a computationally efficient group-wise sequential pruning strategy is proposed to amortize the expensive calibration process. Extensive experiments show that OBS-Diff achieves state-of-the-art one-shot pruning for diffusion models, delivering inference acceleration with minimal degradation in visual quality.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

Autonomous agents based on large language models (LLMs) are rapidly evolving to handle multi-turn tasks, but ensuring their trustworthiness remains a critical challenge. A fundamental pillar of this trustworthiness is calibration, which refers to an agent's ability to express confidence that reliably reflects its actual performance. While calibration is well-established for static models, its dynamics in tool-integrated agentic workflows remain underexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate verbalized calibration in tool-use agents, revealing a fundamental confidence dichotomy driven by tool type. Specifically, our pilot study identifies that evidence tools (e.g., web search) systematically induce severe overconfidence due to inherent noise in retrieved information, while verification tools (e.g., code interpreters) can ground reasoning through deterministic feedback and mitigate miscalibration. To robustly improve calibration across tool types, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning framework that jointly optimizes task accuracy and calibration, supported by a holistic benchmark of reward designs. We demonstrate that our trained agents not only achieve superior calibration but also exhibit robust generalization from local training environments to noisy web settings and to distinct domains such as mathematical reasoning. Our results highlight the necessity of domain-specific calibration strategies for tool-use agents. More broadly, this work establishes a foundation for building self-aware agents that can reliably communicate uncertainty in high-stakes, real-world deployments.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in various machine learning tasks. However, as these models grow in complexity, they often face calibration issues, despite enhanced prediction accuracy. Many studies have endeavored to improve calibration performance through the use of specific loss functions, data preprocessing and training frameworks. Yet, investigations into calibration properties have been somewhat overlooked. Our study leverages the Neural Architecture Search (NAS) search space, offering an exhaustive model architecture space for thorough calibration properties exploration. We specifically create a model calibration dataset. This dataset evaluates 90 bin-based and 12 additional calibration measurements across 117,702 unique neural networks within the widely employed NATS-Bench search space. Our analysis aims to answer several longstanding questions in the field, using our proposed dataset: (i) Can model calibration be generalized across different datasets? (ii) Can robustness be used as a calibration measurement? (iii) How reliable are calibration metrics? (iv) Does a post-hoc calibration method affect all models uniformly? (v) How does calibration interact with accuracy? (vi) What is the impact of bin size on calibration measurement? (vii) Which architectural designs are beneficial for calibration? Additionally, our study bridges an existing gap by exploring calibration within NAS. By providing this dataset, we enable further research into NAS calibration. As far as we are aware, our research represents the first large-scale investigation into calibration properties and the premier study of calibration issues within NAS. The project page can be found at https://www.taolinwei.com/calibration-study

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

Whenever we use devices to take measurements, calibration is indispensable. While the purpose of calibration is to reduce bias and uncertainty in the measurements, it can be quite difficult, expensive, and sometimes even impossible to implement. We study a challenging problem called self-calibration, i.e., the task of designing an algorithm for devices so that the algorithm is able to perform calibration automatically. More precisely, we consider the setup y = A(d) x + epsilon where only partial information about the sensing matrix A(d) is known and where A(d) linearly depends on d. The goal is to estimate the calibration parameter d (resolve the uncertainty in the sensing process) and the signal/object of interests x simultaneously. For three different models of practical relevance, we show how such a bilinear inverse problem, including blind deconvolution as an important example, can be solved via a simple linear least squares approach. As a consequence, the proposed algorithms are numerically extremely efficient, thus potentially allowing for real-time deployment. We also present a variation of the least squares approach, which leads to a~spectral method, where the solution to the bilinear inverse problem can be found by computing the singular vector associated with the smallest singular value of a certain matrix derived from the bilinear system. Explicit theoretical guarantees and stability theory are derived for both techniques; and the number of sampling complexity is nearly optimal (up to a poly-log factor). Applications in imaging sciences and signal processing are discussed and numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach.

Camera calibration involves estimating camera parameters to infer geometric features from captured sequences, which is crucial for computer vision and robotics. However, conventional calibration is laborious and requires dedicated collection. Recent efforts show that learning-based solutions have the potential to be used in place of the repeatability works of manual calibrations. Among these solutions, various learning strategies, networks, geometric priors, and datasets have been investigated. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey of learning-based camera calibration techniques, by analyzing their strengths and limitations. Our main calibration categories include the standard pinhole camera model, distortion camera model, cross-view model, and cross-sensor model, following the research trend and extended applications. As there is no unified benchmark in this community, we collect a holistic calibration dataset that can serve as a public platform to evaluate the generalization of existing methods. It comprises both synthetic and real-world data, with images and videos captured by different cameras in diverse scenes. Toward the end of this paper, we discuss the challenges and provide further research directions. To our knowledge, this is the first survey for the learning-based camera calibration (spanned 10 years). The summarized methods, datasets, and benchmarks are available and will be regularly updated at https://github.com/KangLiao929/Awesome-Deep-Camera-Calibration.

A well-calibrated model should express confidence that matches its actual accuracy -- when it claims 80\% confidence, it should be correct 80\% of the time. While large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance across diverse tasks, their epistemic calibration remains poorly understood. We introduce KalshiBench, a benchmark of 300 prediction market questions from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, with verifiable real-world outcomes occurring after model training cutoffs. Unlike traditional benchmarks measuring accuracy on static knowledge, KalshiBench evaluates whether models can appropriately quantify uncertainty about genuinely unknown future events. We evaluate five frontier models -- Claude Opus 4.5, GPT-5.2, DeepSeek-V3.2, Qwen3-235B, and Kimi-K2 -- and find systematic overconfidence across all models. Even the best-calibrated model (Claude Opus 4.5, ECE=0.120) shows substantial calibration errors, while reasoning-enhanced models like GPT-5.2-XHigh exhibit worse calibration (ECE=0.395) despite comparable accuracy. Critically, only one model achieves a positive Brier Skill Score, indicating most models perform worse than simply predicting base rates. Our findings suggest that scaling and enhanced reasoning do not automatically confer calibration benefits, highlighting epistemic calibration as a distinct capability requiring targeted development.

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic calibration of neural networks. We also analyze the performance of recalibration, conformal, and regularization methods to enhance probabilistic calibration. Additionally, we introduce novel differentiable recalibration and regularization methods, uncovering new insights into their effectiveness. Our findings reveal that regularization methods offer a favorable tradeoff between calibration and sharpness. Post-hoc methods exhibit superior probabilistic calibration, which we attribute to the finite-sample coverage guarantee of conformal prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that quantile recalibration can be considered as a specific case of conformal prediction. Our study is fully reproducible and implemented in a common code base for fair comparisons.

Machine learning models are widely used, but can also often be wrong. Users would benefit from a reliable indication of whether a given output from a given model should be trusted, so a rational decision can be made whether to use the output or not. For example, outputs can be associated with a confidence measure; if this confidence measure is strongly associated with likelihood of correctness, then the model is said to be well-calibrated. A well-calibrated confidence measure can serve as a basis for rational, graduated decision-making on how much review and care is needed when using generated code. Calibration has so far been studied in mostly non-generative (e.g. classification) settings, especially in software engineering. However, generated code can quite often be wrong: Given generated code, developers must decide whether to use directly, use after varying intensity of careful review, or discard model-generated code. Thus, calibration is vital in generative settings. We make several contributions. We develop a framework for evaluating the calibration of code-generating models. We consider several tasks, correctness criteria, datasets, and approaches, and find that, by and large, generative code models we test are not well-calibrated out of the box. We then show how calibration can be improved using standard methods, such as Platt scaling. Since Platt scaling relies on the prior availability of correctness data, we evaluate the applicability and generalizability of Platt scaling in software engineering, discuss settings where it has good potential for practical use, and settings where it does not. Our contributions will lead to better-calibrated decision-making in the current use of code generated by language models, and offers a framework for future research to further improve calibration methods for generative models in software engineering.

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams visualize the structure of this miscalibration. However, the most common constructions of reliability diagrams and calibration measures -- binning and ECE -- both suffer from well-known flaws (e.g. discontinuity). We show that a simple modification fixes both constructions: first smooth the observations using an RBF kernel, then compute the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of this smoothed function. We prove that with a careful choice of bandwidth, this method yields a calibration measure that is well-behaved in the sense of (B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran 2023a) -- a consistent calibration measure. We call this measure the SmoothECE. Moreover, the reliability diagram obtained from this smoothed function visually encodes the SmoothECE, just as binned reliability diagrams encode the BinnedECE. We also provide a Python package with simple, hyperparameter-free methods for measuring and plotting calibration: `pip install relplot\`.

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.

In this paper, we uncover a systematic bias in the evaluation paradigm of adopting large language models~(LLMs), e.g., GPT-4, as a referee to score and compare the quality of responses generated by candidate models. We find that the quality ranking of candidate responses can be easily hacked by simply altering their order of appearance in the context. This manipulation allows us to skew the evaluation result, making one model appear considerably superior to the other, e.g., Vicuna-13B could beat ChatGPT on 66 over 80 tested queries with ChatGPT as an evaluator. To address this issue, we propose a calibration framework with three simple yet effective strategies: 1) Multiple Evidence Calibration, which requires the evaluator model to generate multiple evaluation evidence before assigning ratings; 2) Balanced Position Calibration, which aggregates results across various orders to determine the final score; 3) Human-in-the-Loop Calibration, which introduces a balanced position diversity entropy to measure the difficulty of each example and seeks human assistance when needed. We also manually annotate the "win/tie/lose" outcomes of responses from ChatGPT and Vicuna-13B in the Vicuna Benchmark's question prompt, and extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach successfully mitigates evaluation bias, resulting in closer alignment with human judgments. We release our code and human annotation at https://github.com/i-Eval/FairEval to facilitate future research.

Computational sensing strategies often suffer from calibration errors in the physical implementation of their ideal sensing models. Such uncertainties are typically addressed by using multiple, accurately chosen training signals to recover the missing information on the sensing model, an approach that can be resource-consuming and cumbersome. Conversely, blind calibration does not employ any training signal, but corresponds to a bilinear inverse problem whose algorithmic solution is an open issue. We here address blind calibration as a non-convex problem for linear random sensing models, in which we aim to recover an unknown signal from its projections on sub-Gaussian random vectors, each subject to an unknown positive multiplicative factor (or gain). To solve this optimisation problem we resort to projected gradient descent starting from a suitable, carefully chosen initialisation point. An analysis of this algorithm allows us to show that it converges to the exact solution provided a sample complexity requirement is met, i.e., relating convergence to the amount of information collected during the sensing process. Interestingly, we show that this requirement grows linearly (up to log factors) in the number of unknowns of the problem. This sample complexity is found both in absence of prior information, as well as when subspace priors are available for both the signal and gains, allowing a further reduction of the number of observations required for our recovery guarantees to hold. Moreover, in the presence of noise we show how our descent algorithm yields a solution whose accuracy degrades gracefully with the amount of noise affecting the measurements. Finally, we present some numerical experiments in an imaging context, where our algorithm allows for a simple solution to blind calibration of the gains in a sensor array.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

Motivated by the theoretical interest in reconstructing long 3D trajectories of individual birds in large flocks, we developed CoMo, a co-moving camera system of two synchronized high speed cameras coupled with rotational stages, which allow us to dynamically follow the motion of a target flock. With the rotation of the cameras we overcome the limitations of standard static systems that restrict the duration of the collected data to the short interval of time in which targets are in the cameras common field of view, but at the same time we change in time the external parameters of the system, which have then to be calibrated frame-by-frame. We address the calibration of the external parameters measuring the position of the cameras and their three angles of yaw, pitch and roll in the system "home" configuration (rotational stage at an angle equal to 0deg and combining this static information with the time dependent rotation due to the stages. We evaluate the robustness and accuracy of the system by comparing reconstructed and measured 3D distances in what we call 3D tests, which show a relative error of the order of 1%. The novelty of the work presented in this paper is not only on the system itself, but also on the approach we use in the tests, which we show to be a very powerful tool in detecting and fixing calibration inaccuracies and that, for this reason, may be relevant for a broad audience.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

Class imbalance in binary classification tasks remains a significant challenge in machine learning, often resulting in poor performance on minority classes. This study comprehensively evaluates three widely-used strategies for handling class imbalance: Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE), Class Weights tuning, and Decision Threshold Calibration. We compare these methods against a baseline scenario of no-intervention across 15 diverse machine learning models and 30 datasets from various domains, conducting a total of 9,000 experiments. Performance was primarily assessed using the F1-score, although our study also tracked results on additional 9 metrics including F2-score, precision, recall, Brier-score, PR-AUC, and AUC. Our results indicate that all three strategies generally outperform the baseline, with Decision Threshold Calibration emerging as the most consistently effective technique. However, we observed substantial variability in the best-performing method across datasets, highlighting the importance of testing multiple approaches for specific problems. This study provides valuable insights for practitioners dealing with imbalanced datasets and emphasizes the need for dataset-specific analysis in evaluating class imbalance handling techniques.

Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions made by large language models (LLMs) in binary text classification tasks remains a challenge. Calibration, in the context of LLMs, refers to the alignment between the model's predicted probabilities and the actual correctness of its predictions. A well-calibrated model should produce probabilities that accurately reflect the likelihood of its predictions being correct. We propose a novel approach that utilizes the inductive Venn--Abers predictor (IVAP) to calibrate the probabilities associated with the output tokens corresponding to the binary labels. Our experiments on the BoolQ dataset using the Llama 2 model demonstrate that IVAP consistently outperforms the commonly used temperature scaling method for various label token choices, achieving well-calibrated probabilities while maintaining high predictive quality. Our findings contribute to the understanding of calibration techniques for LLMs and provide a practical solution for obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates in binary question answering tasks, enhancing the interpretability and trustworthiness of LLM predictions.

Following the standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) paradigm, in-context learning (ICL) has become an efficient approach propelled by the recent advancements in large language models (LLMs), yielding promising performance across various tasks in few-shot data setups. However, both paradigms are prone to suffer from the critical problem of overconfidence (i.e., miscalibration), especially in such limited data setups. In this work, we deliver an in-depth analysis of the behavior across different choices of learning methods from the perspective of both performance and calibration, as well as their interplay. Through extensive controlled experiments, we find that simultaneous gains for both task performance and calibration are difficult to achieve, and the problem of miscalibration exists across all learning methods in low-resource scenarios. To address this challenging trade-off between performance and calibration, we then investigate the potential of self-ensembling techniques applied at different modeling stages (e.g., variations of in-context examples or variations in prompts or different ensembling strategies). We justify the feasibility of self-ensembling on SFT in addition to ICL, to make the predictions more calibrated and have comparable or even better performance. Our work sheds light on which learning paradigm to choose and how to enhance both task performance and calibration of LLMs.

AI agents are rapidly advancing from passive language models to autonomous systems executing complex, multi-step tasks. Yet their overconfidence in failure remains a fundamental barrier to deployment in high-stakes settings. Existing calibration methods, built for static single-turn outputs, cannot address the unique challenges of agentic systems, such as compounding errors along trajectories, uncertainty from external tools, and opaque failure modes. To address these challenges, we introduce, for the first time, the problem of Agentic Confidence Calibration and propose Holistic Trajectory Calibration (HTC), a novel diagnostic framework that extracts rich process-level features ranging from macro dynamics to micro stability across an agent's entire trajectory. Powered by a simple, interpretable model, HTC consistently surpasses strong baselines in both calibration and discrimination, across eight benchmarks, multiple LLMs, and diverse agent frameworks. Beyond performance, HTC delivers three essential advances: it provides interpretability by revealing the signals behind failure, enables transferability by applying across domains without retraining, and achieves generalization through a General Agent Calibrator (GAC) that achieves the best calibration (lowest ECE) on the out-of-domain GAIA benchmark. Together, these contributions establish a new process-centric paradigm for confidence calibration, providing a framework for diagnosing and enhancing the reliability of AI agents.

Existing calibration methods occasionally fail for large field-of-view cameras due to the non-linearity of the underlying problem and the lack of good initial values for all parameters of the used camera model. This might occur because a simpler projection model is assumed in an initial step, or a poor initial guess for the internal parameters is pre-defined. A lot of the difficulties of general camera calibration lie in the use of a forward projection model. We side-step these challenges by first proposing a solver to calibrate the parameters in terms of a back-projection model and then regress the parameters for a target forward model. These steps are incorporated in a robust estimation framework to cope with outlying detections. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach is very reliable and returns the most accurate calibration parameters as measured on the downstream task of absolute pose estimation on test sets. The code is released at https://github.com/ylochman/babelcalib.

Allocating more computation during inference time (test-time scaling) improves language model performance, especially for reasoning tasks. However, popular methods like Best-of-N sampling often show diminishing returns as N increases. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a general test-time calibration framework that adaptively modifies the model toward high-reward reasoning paths, with theoretical guarantees of improving the lower bound of expected reward under finite sampling, all without large language model (LLM) retraining. Within this framework, we propose CarBoN (Calibrated Best-of-N), a two-phase method that first explores the solution space and then learns a calibration of the logits via an input-specific temperature T and additive shift vector delta, guiding generation toward more reliable reasoning. Experiments on MATH-500 and AIME-2024 show that CarBoN improves efficiency, with up to 4times fewer rollouts to reach the same accuracy, while often achieving higher accuracy under fixed budgets. We also analyze the complementary roles of T and delta in balancing output diversity and correctness, and demonstrate that the framework also generalizes to step-level sampling strategies such as beam search. For more information, please refer to our project page at huggingface.co/spaces/TrustSafeAI/Test-Time-Calibration.

Deep clustering has exhibited remarkable performance; however, the overconfidence problem, i.e., the estimated confidence for a sample belonging to a particular cluster greatly exceeds its actual prediction accuracy, has been overlooked in prior research. To tackle this critical issue, we pioneer the development of a calibrated deep clustering framework. Specifically, we propose a novel dual-head deep clustering pipeline that can effectively calibrate the estimated confidence and the actual accuracy. The calibration head adjusts the overconfident predictions of the clustering head using regularization methods, generating prediction confidence and pseudo-labels that match the model learning status. This calibration process also guides the clustering head in dynamically selecting reliable high-confidence samples for training. Additionally, we introduce an effective network initialization strategy that enhances both training speed and network robustness. Extensive experiments demonstrate the proposed calibrated deep clustering framework not only surpasses state-of-the-art deep clustering methods by approximately 10 times in terms of expected calibration error but also significantly outperforms them in terms of clustering accuracy.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly computationally complex, developing efficient deployment strategies, such as quantization, becomes crucial. State-of-the-art Post-training Quantization (PTQ) techniques often rely on calibration processes to maintain the accuracy of these models. However, while these calibration techniques can enhance performance in certain domains, they may not be as effective in others. This paper aims to draw attention to robust statistical approaches that can mitigate such issues. We propose a weight-adaptive PTQ method that can be considered a precursor to calibration-based PTQ methods, guiding the quantization process to preserve the distribution of weights by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the quantized weights and the originally trained weights. This minimization ensures that the quantized model retains the Shannon information content of the original model to a great extent, guaranteeing robust and efficient deployment across many tasks. As such, our proposed approach can perform on par with most common calibration-based PTQ methods, establishing a new pre-calibration step for further adjusting the quantized weights with calibration. We show that our pre-calibration results achieve the same accuracy as some existing calibration-based PTQ methods on various LLMs.

The raw-RGB colors of a camera sensor vary due to the spectral sensitivity differences across different sensor makes and models. This paper focuses on the task of mapping between different sensor raw-RGB color spaces. Prior work addressed this problem using a pairwise calibration to achieve accurate color mapping. Although being accurate, this approach is less practical as it requires: (1) capturing pair of images by both camera devices with a color calibration object placed in each new scene; (2) accurate image alignment or manual annotation of the color calibration object. This paper aims to tackle color mapping in the raw space through a more practical setup. Specifically, we present a semi-supervised raw-to-raw mapping method trained on a small set of paired images alongside an unpaired set of images captured by each camera device. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method achieves better results compared to other domain adaptation alternatives in addition to the single-calibration solution. We have generated a new dataset of raw images from two different smartphone cameras as part of this effort. Our dataset includes unpaired and paired sets for our semi-supervised training and evaluation.

We present AnyCalib, a method for calibrating the intrinsic parameters of a camera from a single in-the-wild image, that is agnostic to the camera model. Current methods are predominantly tailored to specific camera models and/or require extrinsic cues, such as the direction of gravity, to be visible in the image. In contrast, we argue that the perspective and distortion cues inherent in images are sufficient for model-agnostic camera calibration. To demonstrate this, we frame the calibration process as the regression of the rays corresponding to each pixel. We show, for the first time, that this intermediate representation allows for a closed-form recovery of the intrinsics for a wide range of camera models, including but not limited to: pinhole, Brown-Conrady and Kannala-Brandt. Our approach also applies to edited -- cropped and stretched -- images. Experimentally, we demonstrate that AnyCalib consistently outperforms alternative methods, including 3D foundation models, despite being trained on orders of magnitude less data. Code is available at https://github.com/javrtg/AnyCalib.

Extrinsic calibration is essential for multi-sensor fusion, existing methods rely on structured targets or fully-excited data, limiting real-world applicability. Online calibration further suffers from weak excitation, leading to unreliable estimates. To address these limitations, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL)-based extrinsic calibration framework that formulates extrinsic calibration as a decision-making problem, directly optimizes SE(3) extrinsics to enhance odometry accuracy. Our approach leverages a probabilistic Bingham distribution to model 3D rotations, ensuring stable optimization while inherently retaining quaternion symmetry. A trajectory alignment reward mechanism enables robust calibration without structured targets by quantitatively evaluating estimated tightly-coupled trajectory against a reference trajectory. Additionally, an automated data selection module filters uninformative samples, significantly improving efficiency and scalability for large-scale datasets. Extensive experiments on UAVs, UGVs, and handheld platforms demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional optimization-based approaches, achieving high-precision calibration even under weak excitation conditions. Our framework simplifies deployment on diverse robotic platforms by eliminating the need for high-quality initial extrinsics and enabling calibration from routine operating data. The code is available at https://github.com/APRIL-ZJU/learn-to-calibrate.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

The fusion of LiDARs and cameras has been increasingly adopted in autonomous driving for perception tasks. The performance of such fusion-based algorithms largely depends on the accuracy of sensor calibration, which is challenging due to the difficulty of identifying common features across different data modalities. Previously, many calibration methods involved specific targets and/or manual intervention, which has proven to be cumbersome and costly. Learning-based online calibration methods have been proposed, but their performance is barely satisfactory in most cases. These methods usually suffer from issues such as sparse feature maps, unreliable cross-modality association, inaccurate calibration parameter regression, etc. In this paper, to address these issues, we propose CalibFormer, an end-to-end network for automatic LiDAR-camera calibration. We aggregate multiple layers of camera and LiDAR image features to achieve high-resolution representations. A multi-head correlation module is utilized to identify correlations between features more accurately. Lastly, we employ transformer architectures to estimate accurate calibration parameters from the correlation information. Our method achieved a mean translation error of 0.8751 cm and a mean rotation error of 0.0562 ^{circ} on the KITTI dataset, surpassing existing state-of-the-art methods and demonstrating strong robustness, accuracy, and generalization capabilities.

Lately, post-training quantization methods have gained considerable attention, as they are simple to use, and require only a small unlabeled calibration set. This small dataset cannot be used to fine-tune the model without significant over-fitting. Instead, these methods only use the calibration set to set the activations' dynamic ranges. However, such methods always resulted in significant accuracy degradation, when used below 8-bits (except on small datasets). Here we aim to break the 8-bit barrier. To this end, we minimize the quantization errors of each layer separately by optimizing its parameters over the calibration set. We empirically demonstrate that this approach is: (1) much less susceptible to over-fitting than the standard fine-tuning approaches, and can be used even on a very small calibration set; and (2) more powerful than previous methods, which only set the activations' dynamic ranges. Furthermore, we demonstrate how to optimally allocate the bit-widths for each layer, while constraining accuracy degradation or model compression by proposing a novel integer programming formulation. Finally, we suggest model global statistics tuning, to correct biases introduced during quantization. Together, these methods yield state-of-the-art results for both vision and text models. For instance, on ResNet50, we obtain less than 1\% accuracy degradation --- with 4-bit weights and activations in all layers, but the smallest two. We open-sourced our code.

Camera-LiDAR extrinsic calibration is a critical task for multi-sensor fusion in autonomous systems, such as self-driving vehicles and mobile robots. Traditional techniques often require manual intervention or specific environments, making them labour-intensive and error-prone. Existing deep learning-based self-calibration methods focus on small realignments and still rely on initial estimates, limiting their practicality. In this paper, we present PseudoCal, a novel self-calibration method that overcomes these limitations by leveraging the pseudo-LiDAR concept and working directly in the 3D space instead of limiting itself to the camera field of view. In typical autonomous vehicle and robotics contexts and conventions, PseudoCal is able to perform one-shot calibration quasi-independently of initial parameter estimates, addressing extreme cases that remain unsolved by existing approaches.

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) has received significant attention because it requires only a small set of calibration data to quantize a full-precision model, which is more practical in real-world applications in which full access to a large training set is not available. However, it often leads to overfitting on the small calibration dataset. Several methods have been proposed to address this issue, yet they still rely on only the calibration set for the quantization and they do not validate the quantized model due to the lack of a validation set. In this work, we propose a novel meta-learning based approach to enhance the performance of post-training quantization. Specifically, to mitigate the overfitting problem, instead of only training the quantized model using the original calibration set without any validation during the learning process as in previous PTQ works, in our approach, we both train and validate the quantized model using two different sets of images. In particular, we propose a meta-learning based approach to jointly optimize a transformation network and a quantized model through bi-level optimization. The transformation network modifies the original calibration data and the modified data will be used as the training set to learn the quantized model with the objective that the quantized model achieves a good performance on the original calibration data. Extensive experiments on the widely used ImageNet dataset with different neural network architectures demonstrate that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art PTQ methods.

Neural network calibration is an essential task in deep learning to ensure consistency between the confidence of model prediction and the true correctness likelihood. In this paper, we propose a new post-processing calibration method called Neural Clamping, which employs a simple joint input-output transformation on a pre-trained classifier via a learnable universal input perturbation and an output temperature scaling parameter. Moreover, we provide theoretical explanations on why Neural Clamping is provably better than temperature scaling. Evaluated on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet image recognition datasets and a variety of deep neural network models, our empirical results show that Neural Clamping significantly outperforms state-of-the-art post-processing calibration methods.

As LLM-based judges become integral to industry applications, obtaining well-calibrated uncertainty estimates efficiently has become critical for production deployment. However, existing techniques, such as verbalized confidence and multi-generation methods, are often either poorly calibrated or computationally expensive. We introduce linear probes trained with a Brier score-based loss to provide calibrated uncertainty estimates from reasoning judges' hidden states, requiring no additional model training. We evaluate our approach on both objective tasks (reasoning, mathematics, factuality, coding) and subjective human preference judgments. Our results demonstrate that probes achieve superior calibration compared to existing methods with approx10x computational savings, generalize robustly to unseen evaluation domains, and deliver higher accuracy on high-confidence predictions. However, probes produce conservative estimates that underperform on easier datasets but may benefit safety-critical deployments prioritizing low false-positive rates. Overall, our work demonstrates that interpretability-based uncertainty estimation provides a practical and scalable plug-and-play solution for LLM judges in production.

Despite their impressive predictive performance in various computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overly confident predictions, which hinders their widespread use in safety-critical applications. While there have been recent attempts to calibrate DNNs, most of these efforts have primarily been focused on classification tasks, thus neglecting DNN-based object detectors. Although several recent works addressed calibration for object detection and proposed differentiable penalties, none of them are consistent estimators of established concepts in calibration. In this work, we tackle the challenge of defining and estimating calibration error specifically for this task. In particular, we adapt the definition of classification calibration error to handle the nuances associated with object detection, and predictions in structured output spaces more generally. Furthermore, we propose a consistent and differentiable estimator of the detection calibration error, utilizing kernel density estimation. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimator against competing train-time and post-hoc calibration methods, while maintaining similar detection performance.

We introduce Iterated Bellman Calibration, a simple, model-agnostic, post-hoc procedure for calibrating off-policy value predictions in infinite-horizon Markov decision processes. Bellman calibration requires that states with similar predicted long-term returns exhibit one-step returns consistent with the Bellman equation under the target policy. We adapt classical histogram and isotonic calibration to the dynamic, counterfactual setting by repeatedly regressing fitted Bellman targets onto a model's predictions, using a doubly robust pseudo-outcome to handle off-policy data. This yields a one-dimensional fitted value iteration scheme that can be applied to any value estimator. Our analysis provides finite-sample guarantees for both calibration and prediction under weak assumptions, and critically, without requiring Bellman completeness or realizability.

By design, average precision (AP) for object detection aims to treat all classes independently: AP is computed independently per category and averaged. On one hand, this is desirable as it treats all classes equally. On the other hand, it ignores cross-category confidence calibration, a key property in real-world use cases. Unfortunately, under important conditions (i.e., large vocabulary, high instance counts) the default implementation of AP is neither category independent, nor does it directly reward properly calibrated detectors. In fact, we show that on LVIS the default implementation produces a gameable metric, where a simple, un-intuitive re-ranking policy can improve AP by a large margin. To address these limitations, we introduce two complementary metrics. First, we present a simple fix to the default AP implementation, ensuring that it is independent across categories as originally intended. We benchmark recent LVIS detection advances and find that many reported gains do not translate to improvements under our new evaluation, suggesting recent improvements may arise from difficult to interpret changes to cross-category rankings. Given the importance of reliably benchmarking cross-category rankings, we consider a pooled version of AP (AP-Pool) that rewards properly calibrated detectors by directly comparing cross-category rankings. Finally, we revisit classical approaches for calibration and find that explicitly calibrating detectors improves state-of-the-art on AP-Pool by 1.7 points

Given the importance of getting calibrated predictions and reliable uncertainty estimations, various post-hoc calibration methods have been developed for neural networks on standard multi-class classification tasks. However, these methods are not well suited for calibrating graph neural networks (GNNs), which presents unique challenges such as accounting for the graph structure and the graph-induced correlations between the nodes. In this work, we conduct a systematic study on the calibration qualities of GNN node predictions. In particular, we identify five factors which influence the calibration of GNNs: general under-confident tendency, diversity of nodewise predictive distributions, distance to training nodes, relative confidence level, and neighborhood similarity. Furthermore, based on the insights from this study, we design a novel calibration method named Graph Attention Temperature Scaling (GATS), which is tailored for calibrating graph neural networks. GATS incorporates designs that address all the identified influential factors and produces nodewise temperature scaling using an attention-based architecture. GATS is accuracy-preserving, data-efficient, and expressive at the same time. Our experiments empirically verify the effectiveness of GATS, demonstrating that it can consistently achieve state-of-the-art calibration results on various graph datasets for different GNN backbones.

We consider the issue of calibration in large language models (LLM). Recent studies have found that common interventions such as instruction tuning often result in poorly calibrated LLMs. Although calibration is well-explored in traditional applications, calibrating LLMs is uniquely challenging. These challenges stem as much from the severe computational requirements of LLMs as from their versatility, which allows them to be applied to diverse tasks. Addressing these challenges, we propose THERMOMETER, a calibration approach tailored to LLMs. THERMOMETER learns an auxiliary model, given data from multiple tasks, for calibrating a LLM. It is computationally efficient, preserves the accuracy of the LLM, and produces better-calibrated responses for new tasks. Extensive empirical evaluations across various benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents have shown promise in tackling complex tasks by interacting dynamically with the environment. Existing work primarily focuses on behavior cloning from expert demonstrations or preference learning through exploratory trajectory sampling. However, these methods often struggle to address long-horizon tasks, where suboptimal actions accumulate step by step, causing agents to deviate from correct task trajectories. To address this, we highlight the importance of timely calibration and the need to automatically construct calibration trajectories for training agents. We propose Step-Level Trajectory Calibration (STeCa), a novel framework for LLM agent learning. Specifically, STeCa identifies suboptimal actions through a step-level reward comparison during exploration. It constructs calibrated trajectories using LLM-driven reflection, enabling agents to learn from improved decision-making processes. We finally leverage these calibrated trajectories with successful trajectories for reinforced training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STeCa significantly outperforms existing methods. Further analysis highlights that timely calibration enables agents to complete tasks with greater robustness. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/WangHanLinHenry/STeCa.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated great capabilities in solving a wide range of tasks in a resource-efficient manner through prompting, which does not require task-specific training, but suffers from performance fluctuation when there are multiple prompt candidates. Previous works have introduced gradient-free probability-based prompt selection methods that aim to choose the optimal prompt among the candidates for a given task but fail to provide a comprehensive and fair comparison between each other. In this paper, we propose a unified framework to interpret and evaluate the existing probability-based prompt selection methods by performing extensive experiments on 13 common NLP tasks. We find that all existing methods can be unified into some variant of the method that maximizes the mutual information between the input and the corresponding model output (denoted as MI). Using the finding, we develop several variants of MI and increases the effectiveness of the best prompt selection method from 87.79% to 94.98%, measured as the ratio of the performance of the selected prompt to that of the optimal oracle prompt. Furthermore, we propose a novel calibration method called Calibration by Marginalization (CBM) that is orthogonal to existing methods and helps increase the prompt selection effectiveness of the best method by 99.44%. The code and datasets used in our work will be released at https://github.com/soheeyang/unified-prompt-selection.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that recovers the data distribution from time-dependent data scores. In this work, we observe that the stochastic reverse process of data scores is a martingale, from which concentration bounds and the optional stopping theorem for data scores can be derived. Then, we discover a simple way for calibrating an arbitrary pretrained DPM, with which the score matching loss can be reduced and the lower bounds of model likelihood can consequently be increased. We provide general calibration guidelines under various model parametrizations. Our calibration method is performed only once and the resulting models can be used repeatedly for sampling. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets to empirically validate our proposal. Our code is at https://github.com/thudzj/Calibrated-DPMs.

Significant progress has been made in photo-realistic scene reconstruction over recent years. Various disparate efforts have enabled capabilities such as multi-appearance or large-scale modeling; however, there lacks a welldesigned dataset that can evaluate the holistic progress of scene reconstruction. We introduce a collection of imagery of the Johns Hopkins Homewood Campus, acquired at different seasons, times of day, in multiple elevations, and across a large scale. We perform a multi-stage calibration process, which efficiently recover camera parameters from phone and drone cameras. This dataset can enable researchers to rigorously explore challenges in unconstrained settings, including effects of inconsistent illumination, reconstruction from large scale and from significantly different perspectives, etc.

The vulnerability of machine learning models to membership inference attacks has received much attention in recent years. However, existing attacks mostly remain impractical due to having high false positive rates, where non-member samples are often erroneously predicted as members. This type of error makes the predicted membership signal unreliable, especially since most samples are non-members in real world applications. In this work, we argue that membership inference attacks can benefit drastically from difficulty calibration, where an attack's predicted membership score is adjusted to the difficulty of correctly classifying the target sample. We show that difficulty calibration can significantly reduce the false positive rate of a variety of existing attacks without a loss in accuracy.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

With the advancement of deep learning technology, neural networks have demonstrated their excellent ability to provide accurate predictions in many tasks. However, a lack of consideration for neural network calibration will not gain trust from humans, even for high-accuracy models. In this regard, the gap between the confidence of the model's predictions and the actual correctness likelihood must be bridged to derive a well-calibrated model. In this paper, we introduce the Neural Clamping Toolkit, the first open-source framework designed to help developers employ state-of-the-art model-agnostic calibrated models. Furthermore, we provide animations and interactive sections in the demonstration to familiarize researchers with calibration in neural networks. A Colab tutorial on utilizing our toolkit is also introduced.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

From a single image, visual cues can help deduce intrinsic and extrinsic camera parameters like the focal length and the gravity direction. This single-image calibration can benefit various downstream applications like image editing and 3D mapping. Current approaches to this problem are based on either classical geometry with lines and vanishing points or on deep neural networks trained end-to-end. The learned approaches are more robust but struggle to generalize to new environments and are less accurate than their classical counterparts. We hypothesize that they lack the constraints that 3D geometry provides. In this work, we introduce GeoCalib, a deep neural network that leverages universal rules of 3D geometry through an optimization process. GeoCalib is trained end-to-end to estimate camera parameters and learns to find useful visual cues from the data. Experiments on various benchmarks show that GeoCalib is more robust and more accurate than existing classical and learned approaches. Its internal optimization estimates uncertainties, which help flag failure cases and benefit downstream applications like visual localization. The code and trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/cvg/GeoCalib.

Previous literature has proved that Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) can store factual knowledge. However, we find that facts stored in the PLMs are not always correct. It motivates us to explore a fundamental question: How do we calibrate factual knowledge in PLMs without re-training from scratch? In this work, we propose a simple and lightweight method CaliNet to achieve this goal. To be specific, we first detect whether PLMs can learn the right facts via a contrastive score between right and fake facts. If not, we then use a lightweight method to add and adapt new parameters to specific factual texts. Experiments on the knowledge probing task show the calibration effectiveness and efficiency. In addition, through closed-book question answering, we find that the calibrated PLM possesses knowledge generalization ability after fine-tuning. Beyond the calibration performance, we further investigate and visualize the knowledge calibration mechanism.

LLM-as-judge evaluation has become the de facto standard for scaling model assessment, but the practice is statistically unsound: uncalibrated scores can invert preferences, naive confidence intervals on uncalibrated scores achieve near-0% coverage, and importance-weighted estimators collapse under limited overlap despite high effective sample size (ESS). We introduce Causal Judge Evaluation (CJE), a framework that fixes all three failures. On n=4,961 Chatbot Arena prompts (after filtering from 5k), CJE achieves 99% pairwise ranking accuracy at full sample size (94% averaged across configurations), matching oracle quality, at 14x lower cost (for ranking 5 policies) by calibrating a 16x cheaper judge on just 5% oracle labels (~250 labels). CJE combines three components: (i) AutoCal-R, reward calibration via mean-preserving isotonic regression; (ii) SIMCal-W, weight stabilization via stacking of S-monotone candidates; and (iii) Oracle-Uncertainty Aware (OUA) inference that propagates calibration uncertainty into confidence intervals. We formalize the Coverage-Limited Efficiency (CLE) diagnostic, which explains why IPS-style estimators fail even when ESS exceeds 90%: the logger rarely visits regions where target policies concentrate. Key findings: SNIPS inverts rankings even with reward calibration (38% pairwise, negative Kendall's tau) due to weight instability; calibrated IPS remains near-random (47%) despite weight stabilization, consistent with CLE; OUA improves coverage from near-0% to ~86% (Direct) and ~96% (stacked-DR), where naive intervals severely under-cover.

When answering questions, LLMs can convey not only an answer, but a level of confidence about the answer being correct. This includes explicit confidence markers (e.g. giving a numeric score) as well as implicit markers, like an authoritative tone or elaborating with additional knowledge. For LLMs to be trustworthy knowledge sources, the confidence they convey should match their actual expertise; however, most current models tend towards overconfidence. To calibrate both implicit and explicit confidence markers, we introduce a pragmatic, listener-aware finetuning method (LACIE) that models the listener, considering not only whether an answer is right, but whether it will be accepted by a listener. We cast calibration as preference optimization, creating data via a two-agent game, where a speaker model's outputs are judged by a simulated listener. We then finetune three LLMs (Mistral-7B, Llama3-8B, Llama3-70B) with LACIE, and show that the resulting models are better calibrated w.r.t. a simulated listener. Crucially, these trends transfer to human listeners, helping them correctly predict model correctness: we conduct a human evaluation where annotators accept or reject an LLM's answers, finding that training with LACIE results in 47% fewer incorrect answers being accepted while maintaining the same level of acceptance for correct answers. Furthermore, LACIE generalizes to another dataset, resulting in a large increase in truthfulness on TruthfulQA when trained on TriviaQA. Our analysis indicates that LACIE leads to a better confidence separation between correct and incorrect examples. Qualitatively, we find that a LACIE-trained model hedges more and implicitly signals certainty when it is correct by using an authoritative tone or including details. Finally, LACIE finetuning leads to an emergent increase in model abstention (e.g. saying "I don't know") for answers that are likely wrong.

Calibration-based methods have dominated RAW image denoising under extremely low-light environments. However, these methods suffer from several main deficiencies: 1) the calibration procedure is laborious and time-consuming, 2) denoisers for different cameras are difficult to transfer, and 3) the discrepancy between synthetic noise and real noise is enlarged by high digital gain. To overcome the above shortcomings, we propose a calibration-free pipeline for Lighting Every Drakness (LED), regardless of the digital gain or camera sensor. Instead of calibrating the noise parameters and training repeatedly, our method could adapt to a target camera only with few-shot paired data and fine-tuning. In addition, well-designed structural modification during both stages alleviates the domain gap between synthetic and real noise without any extra computational cost. With 2 pairs for each additional digital gain (in total 6 pairs) and 0.5% iterations, our method achieves superior performance over other calibration-based methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/Srameo/LED .

Although Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have markedly improved novel view synthesis, accurate uncertainty quantification in their image predictions remains an open problem. The prevailing methods for estimating uncertainty, including the state-of-the-art Density-aware NeRF Ensembles (DANE) [29], quantify uncertainty without calibration. This frequently leads to over- or under-confidence in image predictions, which can undermine their real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a method which, for the first time, achieves calibrated uncertainties for NeRFs. To accomplish this, we overcome a significant challenge in adapting existing calibration techniques to NeRFs: a need to hold out ground truth images from the target scene, reducing the number of images left to train the NeRF. This issue is particularly problematic in sparse-view settings, where we can operate with as few as three images. To address this, we introduce the concept of a meta-calibrator that performs uncertainty calibration for NeRFs with a single forward pass without the need for holding out any images from the target scene. Our meta-calibrator is a neural network that takes as input the NeRF images and uncalibrated uncertainty maps and outputs a scene-specific calibration curve that corrects the NeRF's uncalibrated uncertainties. We show that the meta-calibrator can generalize on unseen scenes and achieves well-calibrated and state-of-the-art uncertainty for NeRFs, significantly beating DANE and other approaches. This opens opportunities to improve applications that rely on accurate NeRF uncertainty estimates such as next-best view planning and potentially more trustworthy image reconstruction for medical diagnosis. The code is available at https://niki-amini-naieni.github.io/instantcalibration.github.io/.

Sports betting's recent federal legalisation in the USA coincides with the golden age of machine learning. If bettors can leverage data to reliably predict the probability of an outcome, they can recognise when the bookmaker's odds are in their favour. As sports betting is a multi-billion dollar industry in the USA alone, identifying such opportunities could be extremely lucrative. Many researchers have applied machine learning to the sports outcome prediction problem, generally using accuracy to evaluate the performance of predictive models. We hypothesise that for the sports betting problem, model calibration is more important than accuracy. To test this hypothesis, we train models on NBA data over several seasons and run betting experiments on a single season, using published odds. We show that using calibration, rather than accuracy, as the basis for model selection leads to greater returns, on average (return on investment of +34.69% versus -35.17%) and in the best case (+36.93% versus +5.56%). These findings suggest that for sports betting (or any probabilistic decision-making problem), calibration is a more important metric than accuracy. Sports bettors who wish to increase profits should therefore select their predictive model based on calibration, rather than accuracy.

Multimodal machine learning has achieved remarkable progress in a wide range of scenarios. However, the reliability of multimodal learning remains largely unexplored. In this paper, through extensive empirical studies, we identify current multimodal classification methods suffer from unreliable predictive confidence that tend to rely on partial modalities when estimating confidence. Specifically, we find that the confidence estimated by current models could even increase when some modalities are corrupted. To address the issue, we introduce an intuitive principle for multimodal learning, i.e., the confidence should not increase when one modality is removed. Accordingly, we propose a novel regularization technique, i.e., Calibrating Multimodal Learning (CML) regularization, to calibrate the predictive confidence of previous methods. This technique could be flexibly equipped by existing models and improve the performance in terms of confidence calibration, classification accuracy, and model robustness.

Network calibration aims to accurately estimate the level of confidences, which is particularly important for employing deep neural networks in real-world systems. Recent approaches leverage mixup to calibrate the network's predictions during training. However, they do not consider the problem that mixtures of labels in mixup may not accurately represent the actual distribution of augmented samples. In this paper, we present RankMixup, a novel mixup-based framework alleviating the problem of the mixture of labels for network calibration. To this end, we propose to use an ordinal ranking relationship between raw and mixup-augmented samples as an alternative supervisory signal to the label mixtures for network calibration. We hypothesize that the network should estimate a higher level of confidence for the raw samples than the augmented ones (Fig.1). To implement this idea, we introduce a mixup-based ranking loss (MRL) that encourages lower confidences for augmented samples compared to raw ones, maintaining the ranking relationship. We also propose to leverage the ranking relationship among multiple mixup-augmented samples to further improve the calibration capability. Augmented samples with larger mixing coefficients are expected to have higher confidences and vice versa (Fig.1). That is, the order of confidences should be aligned with that of mixing coefficients. To this end, we introduce a novel loss, M-NDCG, in order to reduce the number of misaligned pairs of the coefficients and confidences. Extensive experimental results on standard benchmarks for network calibration demonstrate the effectiveness of RankMixup.

Calibrating deep learning models to yield uncertainty-aware predictions is crucial as deep neural networks get increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications. While existing post-hoc calibration methods achieve impressive results on in-domain test datasets, they are limited by their inability to yield reliable uncertainty estimates in domain-shift and out-of-domain (OOD) scenarios. We aim to bridge this gap by proposing DAC, an accuracy-preserving as well as Density-Aware Calibration method based on k-nearest-neighbors (KNN). In contrast to existing post-hoc methods, we utilize hidden layers of classifiers as a source for uncertainty-related information and study their importance. We show that DAC is a generic method that can readily be combined with state-of-the-art post-hoc methods. DAC boosts the robustness of calibration performance in domain-shift and OOD, while maintaining excellent in-domain predictive uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that DAC leads to consistently better calibration across a large number of model architectures, datasets, and metrics. Additionally, we show that DAC improves calibration substantially on recent large-scale neural networks pre-trained on vast amounts of data.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

Volumetric (4D) performance capture is fundamental for AR/VR content generation. Whereas previous work in 4D performance capture has shown impressive results in studio settings, the technology is still far from being accessible to a typical consumer who, at best, might own a single RGBD sensor. Thus, in this work, we propose a method to synthesize free viewpoint renderings using a single RGBD camera. The key insight is to leverage previously seen "calibration" images of a given user to extrapolate what should be rendered in a novel viewpoint from the data available in the sensor. Given these past observations from multiple viewpoints, and the current RGBD image from a fixed view, we propose an end-to-end framework that fuses both these data sources to generate novel renderings of the performer. We demonstrate that the method can produce high fidelity images, and handle extreme changes in subject pose and camera viewpoints. We also show that the system generalizes to performers not seen in the training data. We run exhaustive experiments demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed semi-parametric model (i.e. calibration images available to the neural network) compared to other state of the art machine learned solutions. Further, we compare the method with more traditional pipelines that employ multi-view capture. We show that our framework is able to achieve compelling results, with substantially less infrastructure than previously required.

Accurate sensor calibration is crucial for autonomous systems, yet its uncertainty quantification remains underexplored. We present the first approach to integrate uncertainty awareness into online extrinsic calibration, combining Monte Carlo Dropout with Conformal Prediction to generate prediction intervals with a guaranteed level of coverage. Our method proposes a framework to enhance existing calibration models with uncertainty quantification, compatible with various network architectures. Validated on KITTI (RGB Camera-LiDAR) and DSEC (Event Camera-LiDAR) datasets, we demonstrate effectiveness across different visual sensor types, measuring performance with adapted metrics to evaluate the efficiency and reliability of the intervals. By providing calibration parameters with quantifiable confidence measures, we offer insights into the reliability of calibration estimates, which can greatly improve the robustness of sensor fusion in dynamic environments and usefully serve the Computer Vision community.

Multi-class classification methods that produce sets of probabilistic classifiers, such as ensemble learning methods, are able to model aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is then typically quantified via the Bayes error, and epistemic uncertainty via the size of the set. In this paper, we extend the notion of calibration, which is commonly used to evaluate the validity of the aleatoric uncertainty representation of a single probabilistic classifier, to assess the validity of an epistemic uncertainty representation obtained by sets of probabilistic classifiers. Broadly speaking, we call a set of probabilistic classifiers calibrated if one can find a calibrated convex combination of these classifiers. To evaluate this notion of calibration, we propose a novel nonparametric calibration test that generalizes an existing test for single probabilistic classifiers to the case of sets of probabilistic classifiers. Making use of this test, we empirically show that ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.

Radio interferometric imaging aims to estimate an unknown sky intensity image from degraded observations, acquired through an antenna array. In the theoretical case of a perfectly calibrated array, it has been shown that solving the corresponding imaging problem by iterative algorithms based on convex optimization and compressive sensing theory can be competitive with classical algorithms such as CLEAN. However, in practice, antenna-based gains are unknown and have to be calibrated. Future radio telescopes, such as the SKA, aim at improving imaging resolution and sensitivity by orders of magnitude. At this precision level, the direction-dependency of the gains must be accounted for, and radio interferometric imaging can be understood as a blind deconvolution problem. In this context, the underlying minimization problem is non-convex, and adapted techniques have to be designed. In this work, leveraging recent developments in non-convex optimization, we propose the first joint calibration and imaging method in radio interferometry, with proven convergence guarantees. Our approach, based on a block-coordinate forward-backward algorithm, jointly accounts for visibilities and suitable priors on both the image and the direction-dependent effects (DDEs). As demonstrated in recent works, sparsity remains the prior of choice for the image, while DDEs are modelled as smooth functions of the sky, i.e. spatially band-limited. Finally, we show through simulations the efficiency of our method, for the reconstruction of both images of point sources and complex extended sources. MATLAB code is available on GitHub.

The integrated inertial system, typically integrating an IMU and an exteroceptive sensor such as radar, LiDAR, and camera, has been widely accepted and applied in modern robotic applications for ego-motion estimation, motion control, or autonomous exploration. To improve system accuracy, robustness, and further usability, both multiple and various sensors are generally resiliently integrated, which benefits the system performance regarding failure tolerance, perception capability, and environment compatibility. For such systems, accurate and consistent spatiotemporal calibration is required to maintain a unique spatiotemporal framework for multi-sensor fusion. Considering most existing calibration methods (i) are generally oriented to specific integrated inertial systems, (ii) often only focus on spatial determination, (iii) usually require artificial targets, lacking convenience and usability, we propose iKalibr: a unified targetless spatiotemporal calibration framework for resilient integrated inertial systems, which overcomes the above issues, and enables both accurate and consistent calibration. Altogether four commonly employed sensors are supported in iKalibr currently, namely IMU, radar, LiDAR, and camera. The proposed method starts with a rigorous and efficient dynamic initialization, where all parameters in the estimator would be accurately recovered. Subsequently, several continuous-time batch optimizations are conducted to refine the initialized parameters toward better states. Sufficient real-world experiments were conducted to verify the feasibility and evaluate the calibration performance of iKalibr. The results demonstrate that iKalibr can achieve accurate resilient spatiotemporal calibration. We open-source our implementations at (https://github.com/Unsigned-Long/iKalibr) to benefit the research community.

Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) enhances the efficiency of Large Language Models (LLMs) by enabling faster operation and compatibility with more accessible hardware through reduced memory usage, at the cost of small performance drops. We explore the role of calibration sets in PTQ, specifically their effect on hidden activations in various notable open-source LLMs. Calibration sets are crucial for evaluating activation magnitudes and identifying outliers, which can distort the quantization range and negatively impact performance. Our analysis reveals a marked contrast in quantization effectiveness across models. The older OPT model, upon which much of the quantization literature is based, shows significant performance deterioration and high susceptibility to outliers with varying calibration sets. In contrast, newer models like Llama-2 7B, Llama-3 8B, Command-R 35B, and Mistral 7B demonstrate strong robustness, with Mistral 7B showing near-immunity to outliers and stable activations. These findings suggest a shift in PTQ strategies might be needed. As advancements in pre-training methods reduce the relevance of outliers, there is an emerging need to reassess the fundamentals of current quantization literature. The emphasis should pivot towards optimizing inference speed, rather than primarily focusing on outlier preservation, to align with the evolving characteristics of state-of-the-art LLMs.

Quantization has become a crucial step for the efficient deployment of deep neural networks, where floating point operations are converted to simpler fixed point operations. In its most naive form, it simply consists in a combination of scaling and rounding transformations, leading to either a limited compression rate or a significant accuracy drop. Recently, Gradient-based post-training quantization (GPTQ) methods appears to be constitute a suitable trade-off between such simple methods and more powerful, yet expensive Quantization-Aware Training (QAT) approaches, particularly when attempting to quantize LLMs, where scalability of the quantization process is of paramount importance. GPTQ essentially consists in learning the rounding operation using a small calibration set. In this work, we challenge common choices in GPTQ methods. In particular, we show that the process is, to a certain extent, robust to a number of variables (weight selection, feature augmentation, choice of calibration set). More importantly, we derive a number of best practices for designing more efficient and scalable GPTQ methods, regarding the problem formulation (loss, degrees of freedom, use of non-uniform quantization schemes) or optimization process (choice of variable and optimizer). Lastly, we propose a novel importance-based mixed-precision technique. Those guidelines lead to significant performance improvements on all the tested state-of-the-art GPTQ methods and networks (e.g. +6.819 points on ViT for 4-bit quantization), paving the way for the design of scalable, yet effective quantization methods.

Emerging 3D geometric foundation models, such as DUSt3R, offer a promising approach for in-the-wild 3D vision tasks. However, due to the high-dimensional nature of the problem space and scarcity of high-quality 3D data, these pre-trained models still struggle to generalize to many challenging circumstances, such as limited view overlap or low lighting. To address this, we propose LoRA3D, an efficient self-calibration pipeline to specialize the pre-trained models to target scenes using their own multi-view predictions. Taking sparse RGB images as input, we leverage robust optimization techniques to refine multi-view predictions and align them into a global coordinate frame. In particular, we incorporate prediction confidence into the geometric optimization process, automatically re-weighting the confidence to better reflect point estimation accuracy. We use the calibrated confidence to generate high-quality pseudo labels for the calibrating views and use low-rank adaptation (LoRA) to fine-tune the models on the pseudo-labeled data. Our method does not require any external priors or manual labels. It completes the self-calibration process on a single standard GPU within just 5 minutes. Each low-rank adapter requires only 18MB of storage. We evaluated our method on more than 160 scenes from the Replica, TUM and Waymo Open datasets, achieving up to 88% performance improvement on 3D reconstruction, multi-view pose estimation and novel-view rendering.

Prompting and in-context learning (ICL) have become efficient learning paradigms for large language models (LLMs). However, LLMs suffer from prompt brittleness and various bias factors in the prompt, including but not limited to the formatting, the choice verbalizers, and the ICL examples. To address this problem that results in unexpected performance degradation, calibration methods have been developed to mitigate the effects of these biases while recovering LLM performance. In this work, we first conduct a systematic analysis of the existing calibration methods, where we both provide a unified view and reveal the failure cases. Inspired by these analyses, we propose Batch Calibration (BC), a simple yet intuitive method that controls the contextual bias from the batched input, unifies various prior approaches, and effectively addresses the aforementioned issues. BC is zero-shot, inference-only, and incurs negligible additional costs. In the few-shot setup, we further extend BC to allow it to learn the contextual bias from labeled data. We validate the effectiveness of BC with PaLM 2-(S, M, L) and CLIP models and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance over previous calibration baselines across more than 10 natural language understanding and image classification tasks.

The "alignment tax" of post-training is typically framed as a drop in task accuracy. We show it also involves a severe loss of calibration, making models overconfident, less reliable, and model outputs less diverse. We show that this trade-off can be navigated effectively via a simple post-hoc intervention: interpolating between a model's weights before and after alignment. Crucially, this is not a strict trade-off. We find that the process consistently reveals Pareto-optimal interpolations - models that improve accuracy beyond both parents while substantially recovering the calibration lost during alignment. Our work demonstrates that simple model merging provides a computationally efficient method for mitigating the full scope of the alignment tax, yielding models that are more capable and more reliable.

Neural machine translation (NMT) systems typically employ maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding to select the highest-scoring translation from the distribution mass. However, recent evidence highlights the inadequacy of MAP decoding, often resulting in low-quality or even pathological hypotheses -- the decoding objective is not aligned with real-world translation quality. This paper proposes calibrating hypothesis likelihoods with translation quality from a distribution view by directly optimizing their Pearson correlation -- thereby enhancing the effectiveness of translation decoding. With our method, translation on large language models (LLMs) improves substantially after limited training (2K instances per direction). This improvement is orthogonal to those achieved through supervised fine-tuning, leading to substantial gains across a broad range of metrics and human evaluations -- even when applied to top-performing translation-specialized LLMs fine-tuned on high-quality translation data, such as Tower, or when compared to recent preference optimization methods, like CPO. Moreover, the calibrated translation likelihood can directly serve as a strong proxy for translation quality, closely approximating or even surpassing some state-of-the-art translation quality estimation models, like CometKiwi. Lastly, our in-depth analysis demonstrates that calibration enhances the effectiveness of MAP decoding, thereby enabling greater efficiency in real-world deployment. The resulting state-of-the-art translation model, which covers 10 languages, along with the accompanying code and human evaluation data, has been released to the community: https://github.com/moore3930/calibrating-llm-mt.

We address the problem of network calibration adjusting miscalibrated confidences of deep neural networks. Many approaches to network calibration adopt a regularization-based method that exploits a regularization term to smooth the miscalibrated confidences. Although these approaches have shown the effectiveness on calibrating the networks, there is still a lack of understanding on the underlying principles of regularization in terms of network calibration. We present in this paper an in-depth analysis of existing regularization-based methods, providing a better understanding on how they affect to network calibration. Specifically, we have observed that 1) the regularization-based methods can be interpreted as variants of label smoothing, and 2) they do not always behave desirably. Based on the analysis, we introduce a novel loss function, dubbed ACLS, that unifies the merits of existing regularization methods, while avoiding the limitations. We show extensive experimental results for image classification and semantic segmentation on standard benchmarks, including CIFAR10, Tiny-ImageNet, ImageNet, and PASCAL VOC, demonstrating the effectiveness of our loss function.

State-of-the-art (SOTA) LLMs have progressed from struggling on proof-based Olympiad problems to solving most of the IMO 2025 problems, with leading systems reportedly handling 5 of 6 problems. Given this progress, we assess how well these models can grade proofs: detecting errors, judging their severity, and assigning fair scores beyond binary correctness. We study proof-analysis capabilities using a corpus of 90 Gemini 2.5 Pro-generated solutions that we grade on a 1-4 scale with detailed error annotations, and on MathArena solution sets for IMO/USAMO 2025 scored on a 0-7 scale. Our analysis shows that models can reliably flag incorrect (including subtly incorrect) solutions but exhibit calibration gaps in how partial credit is assigned. To address this, we introduce agentic workflows that extract and analyze reference solutions and automatically derive problem-specific rubrics for a multi-step grading process. We instantiate and compare different design choices for the grading workflows, and evaluate their trade-offs. Across our annotated corpus and MathArena, our proposed workflows achieve higher agreement with human grades and more consistent handling of partial credit across metrics. We release all code, data, and prompts/logs to facilitate future research.

Explaining the output of a deep network remains a challenge. In the case of an image classifier, one type of explanation is to identify pixels that strongly influence the final decision. A starting point for this strategy is the gradient of the class score function with respect to the input image. This gradient can be interpreted as a sensitivity map, and there are several techniques that elaborate on this basic idea. This paper makes two contributions: it introduces SmoothGrad, a simple method that can help visually sharpen gradient-based sensitivity maps, and it discusses lessons in the visualization of these maps. We publish the code for our experiments and a website with our results.