Daily Papers

We introduce the Cisco Time Series Model, a univariate zero-shot forecaster. This time series foundation model is the result of a general architectural innovation to a time series model enabling it to accept multiresolution input, applied to a popular decoder-only time series model (TimesFM). The resulting multiresolution decoder-only model is trained on over 300B unique data points, with more than half coming from the observability domain. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that the resulting model achieves superior performance on observability datasets while retaining very similar performance on a standard general-purpose forecasting benchmark (GIFT-Eval), and suggest that the multiresolution structure enables the model to make more accurate predictions on long context input.

We propose a beam codebook design for integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) that reduces self-interference (SI) to alleviate analog distortion. Our optimization framework, which considers either tapered beamforming or phased arrays for both analog and hybrid schemes, modifies given reference codebooks such that a certain SI power level is achieved. In contrast to other low-SI codebooks, which often rely on hardly interpretable optimization parameters, we provide design guidelines to obtain sensing performance guarantees by deriving analytical bounds on saturation and analog-to-digital quantization in relation to the multipath SI level. By selecting standard reference codebooks in our simulations, we show how our method substantially improves the signal-to-noise ratio for sensing with little impact on 5G-NR communication.

The transition from x86 to ARM architecture is becoming increasingly common across various domains, primarily driven by ARM's energy efficiency and improved performance across traditional sectors. However, this ISA shift poses significant challenges, mainly due to the extensive legacy ecosystem of x86 software and lack of portability across proprietary ecosystems and software stacks. This paper introduces CRT, a lightweight LLM-based transpiler that automatically converts x86 assembly to ARM assembly. Our approach bridges the fundamental architectural gap between x86's CISC-based and ARM's RISC-based computing paradigms while preserving program semantics and optimizing performance. We evaluate CRT on diverse real-world applications, achieving 79.25% translation accuracy from x86 to ARMv5 on our comprehensive test suite, and an 88.68% accuracy from x86 to RISC-V. In practical deployments on Apple M2 hardware (ARMv8), our transpiled code achieves 1.73times speedup compared to Apple's Rosetta 2 virtualization engine, while delivering 2.41times memory efficiency and 1.47times better energy consumption. Through testing and analysis, we show that CRT successfully navigates the CISC/RISC divide and generates correctly executable RISC code despite machine ``language'' barriers. We release our code, models, training datasets, and benchmarks at: https://ahmedheakl.github.io/asm2asm/.

The hardware ecosystem is rapidly evolving, with increasing interest in translating low-level programs across different instruction set architectures (ISAs) in a quick, flexible, and correct way to enhance the portability and longevity of existing code. A particularly challenging class of this transpilation problem is translating between complex- (CISC) and reduced- (RISC) hardware architectures, due to fundamental differences in instruction complexity, memory models, and execution paradigms. In this work, we introduce GG (Guaranteed Guess), an ISA-centric transpilation pipeline that combines the translation power of pre-trained large language models (LLMs) with the rigor of established software testing constructs. Our method generates candidate translations using an LLM from one ISA to another, and embeds such translations within a software-testing framework to build quantifiable confidence in the translation. We evaluate our GG approach over two diverse datasets, enforce high code coverage (>98%) across unit tests, and achieve functional/semantic correctness of 99% on HumanEval programs and 49% on BringupBench programs, respectively. Further, we compare our approach to the state-of-the-art Rosetta 2 framework on Apple Silicon, showcasing 1.73x faster runtime performance, 1.47x better energy efficiency, and 2.41x better memory usage for our transpiled code, demonstrating the effectiveness of GG for real-world CISC-to-RISC translation tasks. We will open-source our codes, data, models, and benchmarks to establish a common foundation for ISA-level code translation research.

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a growing health problem worldwide and is a leading cause of visual impairment and blindness, especially among working people aged 20-65. Its incidence is increasing along with the number of diabetes cases, and it is more common in developed countries than in developing countries. Recent research in the field of diabetic retinopathy diagnosis is using advanced technologies, such as analysis of images obtained by ophthalmoscopy. Automatic methods for analyzing eye images based on neural networks, deep learning and image analysis algorithms can improve the efficiency of diagnosis. This paper describes an automatic DR diagnosis method that includes processing and analysis of ophthalmoscopic images of the eye. It uses morphological algorithms to identify the optic disc and lesions characteristic of DR, such as microaneurysms, hemorrhages and exudates. Automated DR diagnosis has the potential to improve the efficiency of early detection of this disease and contribute to reducing the number of cases of diabetes-related visual impairment. The final step was to create an application with a graphical user interface that allowed retinal images taken at cooperating ophthalmology offices to be uploaded to the server. These images were then analyzed using a developed algorithm to make a diagnosis.

With the recent success of artificial intelligence in neuroscience, a number of deep learning (DL) models were proposed for classification, anomaly detection, and pattern recognition tasks in electroencephalography (EEG). EEG is a multi-channel time-series that provides information about the individual brain activity for diagnostics, neuro-rehabilitation, and other applications (including emotions recognition). Two main issues challenge the existing DL-based modeling methods for EEG: the high variability between subjects and the low signal-to-noise ratio making it difficult to ensure a good quality in the EEG data. In this paper, we propose two variational autoencoder models, namely vEEGNet-ver3 and hvEEGNet, to target the problem of high-fidelity EEG reconstruction. We properly designed their architectures using the blocks of the well-known EEGNet as the encoder, and proposed a loss function based on dynamic time warping. We tested the models on the public Dataset 2a - BCI Competition IV, where EEG was collected from 9 subjects and 22 channels. hvEEGNet was found to reconstruct the EEG data with very high-fidelity, outperforming most previous solutions (including our vEEGNet-ver3 ). Furthermore, this was consistent across all subjects. Interestingly, hvEEGNet made it possible to discover that this popular dataset includes a number of corrupted EEG recordings that might have influenced previous literature results. We also investigated the training behaviour of our models and related it with the quality and the size of the input EEG dataset, aiming at opening a new research debate on this relationship. In the future, hvEEGNet could be used as anomaly (e.g., artefact) detector in large EEG datasets to support the domain experts, but also the latent representations it provides could be used in other classification problems and EEG data generation.

This paper presents a spell checker and correction tool specifically designed for Wolof, an under-represented spoken language in Africa. The proposed spell checker leverages a combination of a trie data structure, dynamic programming, and the weighted Levenshtein distance to generate suggestions for misspelled words. We created novel linguistic resources for Wolof, such as a lexicon and a corpus of misspelled words, using a semi-automatic approach that combines manual and automatic annotation methods. Despite the limited data available for the Wolof language, the spell checker's performance showed a predictive accuracy of 98.31% and a suggestion accuracy of 93.33%. Our primary focus remains the revitalization and preservation of Wolof as an Indigenous and spoken language in Africa, providing our efforts to develop novel linguistic resources. This work represents a valuable contribution to the growth of computational tools and resources for the Wolof language and provides a strong foundation for future studies in the automatic spell checking and correction field.

The integration of artificial intelligence in sports analytics has transformed soccer video understanding, enabling real-time, automated insights into complex game dynamics. Traditional approaches rely on isolated data streams, limiting their effectiveness in capturing the full context of a match. To address this, we introduce SoccerChat, a multimodal conversational AI framework that integrates visual and textual data for enhanced soccer video comprehension. Leveraging the extensive SoccerNet dataset, enriched with jersey color annotations and automatic speech recognition (ASR) transcripts, SoccerChat is fine-tuned on a structured video instruction dataset to facilitate accurate game understanding, event classification, and referee decision making. We benchmark SoccerChat on action classification and referee decision-making tasks, demonstrating its performance in general soccer event comprehension while maintaining competitive accuracy in referee decision making. Our findings highlight the importance of multimodal integration in advancing soccer analytics, paving the way for more interactive and explainable AI-driven sports analysis. https://github.com/simula/SoccerChat

Robust and accurate localization for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is an essential capability to achieve autonomous, long-range flights. Current methods either rely heavily on GNSS, face limitations in visual-based localization due to appearance variances and stylistic dissimilarities between camera and reference imagery, or operate under the assumption of a known initial pose. In this paper, we developed a GNSS-denied localization approach for UAVs that harnesses both Visual-Inertial Odometry (VIO) and Visual Place Recognition (VPR) using a foundation model. This paper presents a novel vision-based pipeline that works exclusively with a nadir-facing camera, an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), and pre-existing satellite imagery for robust, accurate localization in varied environments and conditions. Our system demonstrated average localization accuracy within a 20-meter range, with a minimum error below 1 meter, under real-world conditions marked by drastic changes in environmental appearance and with no assumption of the vehicle's initial pose. The method is proven to be effective and robust, addressing the crucial need for reliable UAV localization in GNSS-denied environments, while also being computationally efficient enough to be deployed on resource-constrained platforms.

Large deep neural networks are powerful, but exhibit undesirable behaviors such as memorization and sensitivity to adversarial examples. In this work, we propose mixup, a simple learning principle to alleviate these issues. In essence, mixup trains a neural network on convex combinations of pairs of examples and their labels. By doing so, mixup regularizes the neural network to favor simple linear behavior in-between training examples. Our experiments on the ImageNet-2012, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, Google commands and UCI datasets show that mixup improves the generalization of state-of-the-art neural network architectures. We also find that mixup reduces the memorization of corrupt labels, increases the robustness to adversarial examples, and stabilizes the training of generative adversarial networks.

We introduce Kvasir-VQA, an extended dataset derived from the HyperKvasir and Kvasir-Instrument datasets, augmented with question-and-answer annotations to facilitate advanced machine learning tasks in Gastrointestinal (GI) diagnostics. This dataset comprises 6,500 annotated images spanning various GI tract conditions and surgical instruments, and it supports multiple question types including yes/no, choice, location, and numerical count. The dataset is intended for applications such as image captioning, Visual Question Answering (VQA), text-based generation of synthetic medical images, object detection, and classification. Our experiments demonstrate the dataset's effectiveness in training models for three selected tasks, showcasing significant applications in medical image analysis and diagnostics. We also present evaluation metrics for each task, highlighting the usability and versatility of our dataset. The dataset and supporting artifacts are available at https://datasets.simula.no/kvasir-vqa.

Extracting meaningful insights from large and complex datasets poses significant challenges, particularly in ensuring the accuracy and relevance of retrieved information. Traditional data retrieval methods such as sequential search and index-based retrieval often fail when handling intricate and interconnected data structures, resulting in incomplete or misleading outputs. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Structured-GraphRAG, a versatile framework designed to enhance information retrieval across structured datasets in natural language queries. Structured-GraphRAG utilizes multiple knowledge graphs, which represent data in a structured format and capture complex relationships between entities, enabling a more nuanced and comprehensive retrieval of information. This graph-based approach reduces the risk of errors in language model outputs by grounding responses in a structured format, thereby enhancing the reliability of results. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Structured-GraphRAG by comparing its performance with that of a recently published method using traditional retrieval-augmented generation. Our findings show that Structured-GraphRAG significantly improves query processing efficiency and reduces response times. While our case study focuses on soccer data, the framework's design is broadly applicable, offering a powerful tool for data analysis and enhancing language model applications across various structured domains.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in reasoning, yet sometimes produce responses that are suboptimal for users in tasks such as writing, information seeking, or providing practical guidance. Conventional alignment practices typically assume that maximizing model reward also maximizes user welfare, but this assumption frequently fails in practice: models may over-clarify or generate overly verbose reasoning when users prefer concise answers. Such behaviors resemble the prisoner's dilemma, where individually rational choices lead to socially suboptimal outcomes. The fundamental challenge is the lack of a principled decision making mechanism that mutually benefits both the LLM and the user. We propose Game-Theoretic Alignment (GTAlign), an alignment framework that integrates game-theoretic decision making into both reasoning and training. During reasoning, the model explicitly treats user-LLM interaction as a strategic game: it constructs payoff matrices within its reasoning chain to estimate welfare for both itself and the user, and then selects actions that are mutually beneficial. During training, we introduce a mutual welfare reward that reinforces cooperative responses, aligning model behavior with socially efficient outcomes. In addition, we introduce an inference technique that leverages game-theoretic reasoning to dynamically adapt LLM's response when pricing policies of LLM service change. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GTAlign substantially improves reasoning efficiency, answer quality, and mutual welfare compared to baselines across diverse tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/ulab-uiuc/GTAlign .

The rapid evolution of digital sports media necessitates sophisticated information retrieval systems that can efficiently parse extensive multimodal datasets. This paper demonstrates SoccerRAG, an innovative framework designed to harness the power of Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) and Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract soccer-related information through natural language queries. By leveraging a multimodal dataset, SoccerRAG supports dynamic querying and automatic data validation, enhancing user interaction and accessibility to sports archives. We present a novel interactive user interface (UI) based on the Chainlit framework which wraps around the core functionality, and enable users to interact with the SoccerRAG framework in a chatbot-like visual manner.

The rapid evolution of digital sports media necessitates sophisticated information retrieval systems that can efficiently parse extensive multimodal datasets. This paper introduces SoccerRAG, an innovative framework designed to harness the power of Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) and Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract soccer-related information through natural language queries. By leveraging a multimodal dataset, SoccerRAG supports dynamic querying and automatic data validation, enhancing user interaction and accessibility to sports archives. Our evaluations indicate that SoccerRAG effectively handles complex queries, offering significant improvements over traditional retrieval systems in terms of accuracy and user engagement. The results underscore the potential of using RAG and LLMs in sports analytics, paving the way for future advancements in the accessibility and real-time processing of sports data.

Currently, there is no usable machine translation system for Nko, a language spoken by tens of millions of people across multiple West African countries, which holds significant cultural and educational value. To address this issue, we present a set of tools, resources, and baseline results aimed towards the development of usable machine translation systems for Nko and other languages that do not currently have sufficiently large parallel text corpora available. (1) Friaparallelel: A novel collaborative parallel text curation software that incorporates quality control through copyedit-based workflows. (2) Expansion of the FLoRes-200 and NLLB-Seed corpora with 2,009 and 6,193 high-quality Nko translations in parallel with 204 and 40 other languages. (3) nicolingua-0005: A collection of trilingual and bilingual corpora with 130,850 parallel segments and monolingual corpora containing over 3 million Nko words. (4) Baseline bilingual and multilingual neural machine translation results with the best model scoring 30.83 English-Nko chrF++ on FLoRes-devtest.

Variance reduction (VR) techniques have contributed significantly to accelerating learning with massive datasets in the smooth and strongly convex setting (Schmidt et al., 2017; Johnson & Zhang, 2013; Roux et al., 2012). However, such techniques have not yet met the same success in the realm of large-scale deep learning due to various factors such as the use of data augmentation or regularization methods like dropout (Defazio & Bottou, 2019). This challenge has recently motivated the design of novel variance reduction techniques tailored explicitly for deep learning (Arnold et al., 2019; Ma & Yarats, 2018). This work is an additional step in this direction. In particular, we exploit the ubiquitous clustering structure of rich datasets used in deep learning to design a family of scalable variance reduced optimization procedures by combining existing optimizers (e.g., SGD+Momentum, Quasi Hyperbolic Momentum, Implicit Gradient Transport) with a multi-momentum strategy (Yuan et al., 2019). Our proposal leads to faster convergence than vanilla methods on standard benchmark datasets (e.g., CIFAR and ImageNet). It is robust to label noise and amenable to distributed optimization. We provide a parallel implementation in JAX.

Context. Extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) observations have revealed small-scale transient brightenings that may share common physical mechanisms with larger-scale solar flares. A notable feature of solar and stellar flares is the presence of quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs), which are considered a common and potentially intrinsic characteristic. Aims. We investigate the properties of QPPs detected in EUV brightenings, which are considered small-scale flares, and compare their statistical properties with those observed in solar and stellar flares. Methods. We extracted integrated light curves of 22,623 EUV brightenings in two quiet Sun regions observed by the Solar Orbiter/Extreme Ultraviolet Imager and identified QPPs in their light curves using Fourier analysis. Results. Approximately 2.7 % of the EUV brightenings exhibited stationary QPPs. The QPP occurrence rate increased with the surface area, lifetime, and peak brightness of the EUV brightenings. The detected QPP periods ranged from approximately 15 to 260 seconds, which is comparable to the periods observed in solar and stellar flares. Consistent with observations of QPPs in solar and stellar flares, no correlation was found between the QPP period and peak brightness. However, unlike the trend observed in solar flares, no correlation was found between the QPP period and lifetime/length scale. Conclusions. The presence of QPPs in EUV brightenings supports the interpretation that these events may be small-scale manifestations of flares, and the absence of period scaling with loop length further suggests that standing waves may not be the primary driver of QPPs in these events.

Recent progress in natural language processing has been driven by advances in both model architecture and model pretraining. Transformer architectures have facilitated building higher-capacity models and pretraining has made it possible to effectively utilize this capacity for a wide variety of tasks. Transformers is an open-source library with the goal of opening up these advances to the wider machine learning community. The library consists of carefully engineered state-of-the art Transformer architectures under a unified API. Backing this library is a curated collection of pretrained models made by and available for the community. Transformers is designed to be extensible by researchers, simple for practitioners, and fast and robust in industrial deployments. The library is available at https://github.com/huggingface/transformers.

The application of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) technology in soccer offers numerous opportunities for sports analytics. Specifically, extracting audio commentaries with ASR provides valuable insights into the events of the game, and opens the door to several downstream applications such as automatic highlight generation. This paper presents SoccerNet-Echoes, an augmentation of the SoccerNet dataset with automatically generated transcriptions of audio commentaries from soccer game broadcasts, enhancing video content with rich layers of textual information derived from the game audio using ASR. These textual commentaries, generated using the Whisper model and translated with Google Translate, extend the usefulness of the SoccerNet dataset in diverse applications such as enhanced action spotting, automatic caption generation, and game summarization. By incorporating textual data alongside visual and auditory content, SoccerNet-Echoes aims to serve as a comprehensive resource for the development of algorithms specialized in capturing the dynamics of soccer games. We detail the methods involved in the curation of this dataset and the integration of ASR. We also highlight the implications of a multimodal approach in sports analytics, and how the enriched dataset can support diverse applications, thus broadening the scope of research and development in the field of sports analytics.

In the era of digitalization, social media has become an integral part of our lives, serving as a significant hub for individuals and businesses to share information, communicate, and engage. This is also the case for professional sports, where leagues, clubs and players are using social media to reach out to their fans. In this respect, a huge amount of time is spent curating multimedia content for various social media platforms and their target users. With the emergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI), AI-based tools for automating content generation and enhancing user experiences on social media have become widely popular. However, to effectively utilize such tools, it is imperative to comprehend the demographics and preferences of users on different platforms, understand how content providers post information in these channels, and how different types of multimedia are consumed by audiences. This report presents an analysis of social media platforms, in terms of demographics, supported multimedia modalities, and distinct features and specifications for different modalities, followed by a comparative case study of select European soccer leagues and teams, in terms of their social media practices. Through this analysis, we demonstrate that social media, while being very important for and widely used by supporters from all ages, also requires a fine-tuned effort on the part of soccer professionals, in order to elevate fan experiences and foster engagement.

Quantifying sponsor visibility in sports broadcasts is a critical marketing task traditionally hindered by manual, subjective, and unscalable analysis methods. While automated systems offer an alternative, their reliance on axis-aligned Horizontal Bounding Box (HBB) leads to inaccurate exposuremetrics when logos appear rotated or skewed due to dynamic camera angles and perspective distortions. This paper introduces ExposureEngine, an end-to-end system designed for accurate, rotation-aware sponsor visibility analytics in sports broadcasts, demonstrated in a soccer case study. Our approach predicts Oriented Bounding Box (OBB) to provide a geometrically precise fit to each logo regardless of the orientation on-screen. To train and evaluate our detector, we developed a new dataset comprising 1,103 frames from Swedish elite soccer, featuring 670 unique sponsor logos annotated with OBBs. Our model achieves a mean Average Precision ([email protected]) of 0.859, with a precision of 0.96 and recall of 0.87, demonstrating robust performance in localizing logos under diverse broadcast conditions. The system integrates these detections into an analytical pipeline that calculates precise visibility metrics, such as exposure duration and on-screen coverage. Furthermore, we incorporate a language-driven agentic layer, enabling users to generate reports, summaries, and media content through natural language queries. The complete system, including the dataset and the analytics dashboard, provides a comprehensive solution for auditable and interpretable sponsor measurement in sports media. An overview of the ExposureEngine is available online: https://youtu.be/tRw6OBISuW4 .

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) based controllers for legged robots have demonstrated impressive robustness for walking in different environments for several robot platforms. To enable the application of RL policies for humanoid robots in real-world settings, it is crucial to build a system that can achieve robust walking in any direction, on 2D and 3D terrains, and be controllable by a user-command. In this paper, we tackle this problem by learning a policy to follow a given step sequence. The policy is trained with the help of a set of procedurally generated step sequences (also called footstep plans). We show that simply feeding the upcoming 2 steps to the policy is sufficient to achieve omnidirectional walking, turning in place, standing, and climbing stairs. Our method employs curriculum learning on the complexity of terrains, and circumvents the need for reference motions or pre-trained weights. We demonstrate the application of our proposed method to learn RL policies for 2 new robot platforms - HRP5P and JVRC-1 - in the MuJoCo simulation environment. The code for training and evaluation is available online.

The scale, variety, and quantity of publicly-available NLP datasets has grown rapidly as researchers propose new tasks, larger models, and novel benchmarks. Datasets is a community library for contemporary NLP designed to support this ecosystem. Datasets aims to standardize end-user interfaces, versioning, and documentation, while providing a lightweight front-end that behaves similarly for small datasets as for internet-scale corpora. The design of the library incorporates a distributed, community-driven approach to adding datasets and documenting usage. After a year of development, the library now includes more than 650 unique datasets, has more than 250 contributors, and has helped support a variety of novel cross-dataset research projects and shared tasks. The library is available at https://github.com/huggingface/datasets.

We open-source SMOL (Set of Maximal Overall Leverage), a suite of training data to unlock translation for low-resource languages (LRLs). SMOL has been translated into 115 under-resourced languages, including many for which there exist no previous public resources, for a total of 6.1M translated tokens. SMOL comprises two sub-datasets, each carefully chosen for maximum impact given its size: SMOL-Sent, a set of sentences chosen for broad unique token coverage, and SMOL-Doc, a document-level source focusing on a broad topic coverage. They join the already released GATITOS for a trifecta of paragraph, sentence, and token-level content. We demonstrate that using SMOL to prompt or fine-tune Large Language Models yields robust ChrF improvements. In addition to translation, we provide factuality ratings and rationales for all documents in SMOL-Doc, yielding the first factuality datasets for most of these languages.

The last decade has seen a marked shift in how the internal structure of hadrons is understood. Modern experimental facilities, new theoretical techniques for the continuum bound-state problem and progress with lattice-regularised QCD have provided strong indications that soft quark+quark (diquark) correlations play a crucial role in hadron physics. For example, theory indicates that the appearance of such correlations is a necessary consequence of dynamical chiral symmetry breaking, viz. a corollary of emergent hadronic mass that is responsible for almost all visible mass in the universe; experiment has uncovered signals for such correlations in the flavour-separation of the proton's electromagnetic form factors; and phenomenology suggests that diquark correlations might be critical to the formation of exotic tetra- and penta-quark hadrons. A broad spectrum of such information is evaluated herein, with a view to consolidating the facts and therefrom moving toward a coherent, unified picture of hadron structure and the role that diquark correlations might play.

In this report we describe the development of Command A, a powerful large language model purpose-built to excel at real-world enterprise use cases. Command A is an agent-optimised and multilingual-capable model, with support for 23 languages of global business, and a novel hybrid architecture balancing efficiency with top of the range performance. It offers best-in-class Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) capabilities with grounding and tool use to automate sophisticated business processes. These abilities are achieved through a decentralised training approach, including self-refinement algorithms and model merging techniques. We also include results for Command R7B which shares capability and architectural similarities to Command A. Weights for both models have been released for research purposes. This technical report details our original training pipeline and presents an extensive evaluation of our models across a suite of enterprise-relevant tasks and public benchmarks, demonstrating excellent performance and efficiency.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.