John wants to win the annual Mayfield raffle next year because he needs the Mayfield raffle' s prize. If he enters more than one raffle next year, the likelihood of his winning one of them would be greater than if he entered only a single raffle. Hence, to have this greater likelihood of winning the Mayfield prize, John should enter several other raffles next year.
The argument exhibits the flaw in reasoning of assuming that an event, if it is highly improbable, cannot possibly occur.