Pascal, a modern French thinker, once argued that either there was a Christian God or there was no Christian God. If you believe that God exists and live in a Christian way, then if God does exist, you will have endless blessings: if God does not exist, you will have very little to lose. But suppose you don't believe that God exists and don't live in a Christian way. If God doesn't exist, you have nothing to lose: if God does exist, you will be punished endlessly. So don't hesitate, choose to believe in God and live in a Christian way.
The option 'If God does not exist, we choose to believe in God, which will lead to our wrong understanding of the world and muddle through our lives' best illustrates the loophole in the logic of this argument.