According to probability theory, tossing a fair coin has almost equal probability of getting heads and tails. I bet with people that if the coin toss comes heads, I win; if it comes tails, I lose. I tossed a coin 6 times and it all came up tails, and I've lost 6 times in a row. So my next few tosses are definitely heads up and will definitely win back.
It doesn't make sense, because each toss is an independent event, unrelated to the previous results is an appropriate evaluation of I's reasoning.