Driver: My friends say I will one day have an accident because I drive my sports car recklessly. But I have done some research, and apparently minivans and larger sedans have very low accident rates compared to sports cars. So trading my sports car in for a minivan would lower my risk of having an accident.
The reasoning in the driver's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that this argument misinterprets evidence that a result is likely as evidence that the result is certain.