John wants to win the annual Mayfield raffle next year because he needs the Mayfield raffle' s prize. If he enters more than one raffle next year, the likelihood of his winning one of them would be greater than if he entered only a single raffle. Hence, to have this greater likelihood of winning the Mayfield prize, John should enter several other raffles next year.
The flaw in reasoning exhibited by the argument is confusing the likelihood that at least one event in a set of events will occur with the likelihood that a designated event in that set will occur.