<s>
Tropical	B-Application
cyclone	I-Application
forecasting	I-Application
is	O
the	O
science	O
of	O
forecasting	O
where	O
a	O
tropical	O
cyclone	O
's	O
center	O
,	O
and	O
its	O
effects	O
,	O
are	O
expected	O
to	O
be	O
at	O
some	O
point	O
in	O
the	O
future	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
There	O
are	O
several	O
elements	O
to	O
tropical	B-Application
cyclone	I-Application
forecasting	I-Application
:	O
track	O
forecasting	O
,	O
intensity	O
forecasting	O
,	O
rainfall	O
forecasting	O
,	O
storm	O
surge	O
,	O
tornado	O
,	O
and	O
seasonal	O
forecasting	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
1930s	O
saw	O
the	O
usage	O
of	O
radiosondes	O
in	O
tropical	B-Application
cyclone	I-Application
forecasting	I-Application
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
next	O
decade	O
saw	O
the	O
advent	O
of	O
aircraft-based	O
reconnaissance	O
by	O
the	O
military	O
,	O
starting	O
with	O
the	O
first	O
dedicated	O
flight	O
into	O
a	O
hurricane	B-Application
in	O
1943	O
,	O
and	O
the	O
establishment	O
of	O
the	O
Hurricane	B-Application
Hunters	O
in	O
1944	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
the	O
1950s	O
,	O
coastal	O
weather	B-Application
radars	I-Application
began	O
to	O
be	O
used	O
in	O
the	O
United	O
States	O
,	O
and	O
research	O
reconnaissance	O
flights	O
by	O
the	O
precursor	O
of	O
the	O
Hurricane	B-Application
Research	O
Division	O
began	O
in	O
1954	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
launch	O
of	O
the	O
first	O
weather	O
satellite	O
,	O
TIROS-I	O
,	O
in	O
1960	O
,	O
introduced	O
new	O
forecasting	O
techniques	O
that	O
remain	O
important	O
to	O
tropical	B-Application
cyclone	I-Application
forecasting	I-Application
to	O
the	O
present	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
the	O
late	O
1970s	O
,	O
William	O
Gray	O
noticed	O
a	O
trend	O
of	O
low	O
hurricane	B-Application
activity	O
in	O
the	O
North	O
Atlantic	O
basin	O
during	O
El	O
Niño	O
years	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
He	O
found	O
numerous	O
factors	O
across	O
the	O
globe	O
influence	O
tropical	O
cyclone	O
activity	O
,	O
such	O
as	O
connecting	O
wet	O
periods	O
over	O
the	O
African	O
Sahel	O
to	O
an	O
increase	O
in	O
major	O
hurricane	B-Application
landfalls	O
along	O
the	O
United	O
States	O
East	O
Coast	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Utilizing	O
his	O
findings	O
,	O
Gray	O
developed	O
an	O
objective	O
,	O
statistical	O
forecast	O
for	O
seasonal	O
hurricane	B-Application
activity	O
;	O
he	O
predicted	O
only	O
the	O
number	O
of	O
tropical	O
storms	O
,	O
hurricanes	B-Application
,	O
and	O
major	O
hurricanes	B-Application
,	O
foregoing	O
specifics	O
on	O
tracks	O
and	O
potential	O
landfalls	O
due	O
to	O
the	O
aforementioned	O
inconsistencies	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
He	O
subsequently	O
issued	O
forecasts	O
ahead	O
of	O
the	O
start	O
of	O
the	O
Atlantic	O
hurricane	B-Application
season	O
in	O
May	O
and	O
before	O
the	O
peak	O
of	O
the	O
season	O
in	O
August	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
1-2-3	O
rule	O
(	O
mariner	B-Application
's	I-Application
1-2-3	I-Application
rule	I-Application
or	O
danger	O
area	O
)	O
is	O
a	O
guideline	O
commonly	O
taught	O
to	O
mariners	O
for	O
severe	O
storm	O
(	O
specifically	O
hurricane	B-Application
and	O
tropical	O
storm	O
)	O
tracking	O
and	O
prediction	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
Cyclone	O
Global	O
Navigation	O
Satellite	O
System	O
,	O
launched	O
by	O
NASA	O
in	O
2016	O
,	O
is	O
expected	O
to	O
provide	O
much	O
more	O
data	O
compared	O
to	O
sporadic	O
measurements	O
by	O
weather	O
buoys	O
and	O
hurricane-penetrating	O
aircraft	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
A	O
strong	O
hurricane/typhoon/cyclone	O
can	O
weaken	O
if	O
an	O
outer	O
eye	O
wall	O
forms	O
(	O
typically	O
around	O
from	O
the	O
centre	O
of	O
the	O
storm	O
)	O
,	O
choking	O
off	O
the	O
convection	O
within	O
the	O
inner	O
eye	O
wall	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Dr.	O
Kerry	O
Emanuel	O
created	O
a	O
mathematical	O
model	O
around	O
1988	O
,	O
called	O
the	O
maximum	O
potential	O
intensity	O
or	O
MPI	O
,	O
to	O
compute	O
the	O
upper	O
limit	O
of	O
tropical	O
cyclone	O
intensity	O
based	O
on	O
sea	O
surface	O
temperature	O
and	O
atmospheric	O
profiles	O
from	O
the	O
latest	B-Application
global	I-Application
model	I-Application
runs	I-Application
.	O
</s>
<s>
Slow	O
motion	O
,	O
as	O
was	O
seen	O
during	O
Hurricane	B-Application
Danny	O
and	O
Hurricane	B-Application
Wilma	O
,	O
can	O
lead	O
to	O
high	O
amounts	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
presence	O
of	O
topography	O
near	O
the	O
coast	O
,	O
as	O
is	O
the	O
case	O
across	O
much	O
of	O
Mexico	O
,	O
Haiti	O
,	O
the	O
Dominican	O
Republic	O
,	O
much	O
of	O
Central	O
America	O
,	O
Madagascar	B-Application
,	O
Réunion	O
,	O
China	O
,	O
and	O
Japan	O
acts	O
to	O
magnify	O
amounts	O
due	O
to	O
upslope	O
flow	O
into	O
the	O
mountains	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Strong	O
upper	O
level	O
forcing	O
from	O
a	O
trough	O
moving	O
through	O
the	O
Westerlies	O
,	O
as	O
was	O
the	O
case	O
during	O
Hurricane	B-Application
Floyd	O
,	O
can	O
lead	O
to	O
excessive	O
amounts	O
even	O
from	O
systems	O
moving	O
at	O
an	O
average	O
forward	O
motion	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
A	O
combination	O
of	O
two	O
of	O
these	O
factors	O
could	O
be	O
especially	O
crippling	O
,	O
as	O
was	O
seen	O
during	O
Hurricane	B-Application
Mitch	O
in	O
Central	O
America	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
However	O
,	O
as	O
a	O
result	O
of	O
global	O
warming	O
,	O
the	O
heat	O
that	O
has	O
built	O
up	O
on	O
the	O
ocean	O
's	O
surface	O
has	O
allowed	O
storms	O
and	O
hurricanes	B-Application
to	O
capture	O
more	O
water	O
vapour	O
and	O
,	O
given	O
the	O
increased	O
temperatures	O
in	O
the	O
atmosphere	O
also	O
,	O
retain	O
the	O
moisture	O
for	O
a	O
longer	O
capacity	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
This	O
results	O
in	O
incredible	O
amounts	O
of	O
rainfall	O
upon	O
striking	O
land	O
which	O
can	O
often	O
be	O
the	O
most	O
damaging	O
aspect	O
of	O
a	O
hurricane	B-Application
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
Automated	O
Tropical	B-Application
Cyclone	I-Application
Forecasting	I-Application
System	O
(	O
ATCF	O
)	O
software	O
was	O
developed	O
by	O
the	O
Naval	O
Research	O
Laboratory	O
for	O
the	O
Joint	O
Typhoon	O
Warning	O
Center	O
(	O
JTWC	O
)	O
beginning	O
in	O
1986	O
,	O
and	O
used	O
since	O
1988	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
During	O
1990	O
the	O
system	O
was	O
adapted	O
by	O
the	O
National	O
Hurricane	B-Application
Center	O
(	O
NHC	O
)	O
for	O
use	O
at	O
the	O
NHC	O
,	O
National	O
Centers	O
for	O
Environmental	O
Prediction	O
and	O
the	O
Central	O
Pacific	O
Hurricane	B-Application
Center	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
ATCF	O
was	O
originally	O
developed	O
for	O
use	O
within	O
DOS	B-Device
,	O
before	O
later	O
being	O
adapted	O
to	O
Unix	O
and	O
Linux	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
main	O
storm	O
surge	O
forecast	O
model	O
in	O
the	O
Atlantic	O
basin	O
is	O
SLOSH	O
,	O
which	O
stands	O
for	O
Sea	O
,	O
Lake	O
,	O
Overland	O
,	O
Surge	O
from	O
Hurricanes	B-Application
.	O
</s>
<s>
If	O
the	O
forecast	O
track	O
itself	O
is	O
also	O
uncertain	O
,	O
a	O
maximum	O
of	O
maximums	O
(	O
MoM	O
)	O
map	O
can	O
be	O
generated	O
which	O
will	O
show	O
the	O
worst	O
possible	O
scenario	O
for	O
a	O
hurricane	B-Application
of	O
a	O
specific	O
strength	O
.	O
</s>
