<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
,	O
sometimes	O
rendered	O
as	O
538	B-Application
,	O
is	O
an	O
American	O
website	O
that	O
focuses	O
on	O
opinion	O
poll	O
analysis	O
,	O
politics	O
,	O
economics	O
,	O
and	O
sports	O
blogging	O
in	O
the	O
United	O
States	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
website	O
,	O
which	O
takes	O
its	O
name	O
from	O
the	O
number	O
of	O
electors	O
in	O
the	O
United	O
States	O
electoral	O
college	O
,	O
was	O
founded	O
on	O
March	O
7	O
,	O
2008	O
,	O
as	O
a	O
polling	B-Application
aggregation	I-Application
website	I-Application
with	O
a	O
blog	O
created	O
by	O
analyst	O
Nate	O
Silver	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
August	O
2010	O
,	O
the	O
blog	O
became	O
a	O
licensed	O
feature	O
of	O
The	O
New	O
York	O
Times	O
online	O
and	O
renamed	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
:	O
Nate	O
Silver	O
's	O
Political	O
Calculus	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
July	O
2013	O
,	O
ESPN	O
acquired	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
,	O
hiring	O
Silver	O
as	O
editor-in-chief	O
and	O
a	O
contributor	O
for	O
ESPN.com	O
;	O
the	O
new	O
publication	O
launched	O
on	O
March	O
17	O
,	O
2014	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Since	O
then	O
,	O
the	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
blog	O
has	O
covered	O
a	O
broad	O
spectrum	O
of	O
subjects	O
including	O
politics	O
,	O
sports	O
,	O
science	O
,	O
economics	O
,	O
and	O
popular	O
culture	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
site	O
and	O
its	O
founder	O
are	O
best	O
known	O
for	O
election	O
forecasts	O
,	O
including	O
the	O
2012	O
presidential	O
election	O
in	O
which	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
correctly	O
predicted	O
the	O
vote	O
winner	O
of	O
all	O
50	O
states	O
and	O
the	O
District	O
of	O
Columbia	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
has	O
won	O
numerous	O
awards	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
While	O
under	O
the	O
ownership	O
of	O
ESPN	O
in	O
2016	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
won	O
the	O
Data	O
Journalism	O
Website	O
of	O
the	O
Year	O
award	O
from	O
the	O
Global	O
Editors	O
Network	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
When	O
Silver	O
started	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
in	O
early	O
March	O
2008	O
,	O
he	O
published	O
under	O
the	O
name	O
Poblano	O
,	O
the	O
same	O
name	O
that	O
he	O
had	O
used	O
since	O
November	O
2007	O
when	O
he	O
began	O
publishing	O
a	O
diary	O
on	O
the	O
political	O
blog	O
Daily	O
Kos	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
name	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
derives	O
from	O
the	O
538	B-Application
electors	O
in	O
the	O
United	O
States	O
Electoral	O
College	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
gained	O
further	O
national	O
attention	O
for	O
beating	O
out	O
most	O
pollsters	O
 '	O
projections	O
in	O
the	O
North	O
Carolina	O
and	O
Indiana	O
Democratic	O
party	O
primaries	O
on	O
May	O
6	O
,	O
2008	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
As	O
Mark	O
Blumenthal	O
wrote	O
in	O
National	O
Journal	O
,	O
"	O
Over	O
the	O
last	O
week	O
,	O
an	O
anonymous	O
blogger	O
who	O
writes	O
under	O
the	O
pseudonym	O
Poblano	O
did	O
something	O
bold	O
on	O
his	O
blog	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight.com	B-Application
.	O
</s>
<s>
On	O
May	O
30	O
,	O
2008	O
,	O
Silver	O
revealed	O
his	O
true	O
identity	O
for	O
the	O
first	O
time	O
to	O
his	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
readers	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
2008	O
,	O
Rasmussen	O
Reports	O
had	O
an	O
apparently	O
short-term	O
partnership	O
with	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
in	O
order	O
to	O
include	O
this	O
unique	O
methodology	O
for	O
generating	O
poll	O
averages	O
in	O
their	O
"	O
Balance	O
of	O
Power	O
Calculator	O
"	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
At	O
the	O
same	O
time	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEights	B-Application
daily	O
"	O
Today	O
's	O
Polls	O
"	O
column	O
began	O
to	O
be	O
mirrored	O
on	O
"	O
The	O
Plank	O
"	O
,	O
a	O
blog	O
published	O
by	O
The	O
New	O
Republic	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
By	O
early	O
October	O
2008	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
approached	O
2.5	O
million	O
visitors	O
per	O
week	O
,	O
while	O
averaging	O
approximately	O
400,000	O
per	O
weekday	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
During	O
October	O
2008	O
the	O
site	O
received	O
3.63	O
million	O
unique	B-Protocol
visitors	I-Protocol
,	O
20.57	O
million	O
site	O
visits	O
,	O
and	O
32.18	O
million	O
page	O
views	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
transition	O
took	O
place	O
on	O
August	O
25	O
,	O
2010	O
,	O
with	O
the	O
publication	O
of	O
Silver	O
's	O
first	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
blog	O
article	O
online	O
in	O
The	O
New	O
York	O
Times	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
July	O
2013	O
,	O
it	O
was	O
revealed	O
that	O
Silver	O
and	O
his	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
blog	O
would	O
depart	O
The	O
New	O
York	O
Times	O
and	O
join	O
ESPN	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
its	O
announcement	O
of	O
its	O
acquisition	O
of	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
,	O
ESPN	O
reported	O
that	O
"	O
Silver	O
will	O
serve	O
as	O
the	O
editor-in-chief	O
of	O
the	O
site	O
and	O
will	O
build	O
a	O
team	O
of	O
journalists	O
,	O
editors	O
,	O
analysts	O
and	O
contributors	O
in	O
the	O
coming	O
months	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
site	O
will	O
return	O
to	O
its	O
original	O
URL	O
,	O
www.FiveThirtyEight.com	O
.	O
"	O
</s>
<s>
According	O
to	O
Silver	O
,	O
the	O
focus	O
of	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
in	O
its	O
ESPN	O
phase	O
would	O
broaden	O
:	O
"	O
People	O
also	O
think	O
it	O
's	O
going	O
to	O
be	O
a	O
sports	O
site	O
with	O
a	O
little	O
politics	O
thrown	O
in	O
,	O
or	O
it	O
's	O
going	O
to	O
be	O
a	O
politics	O
site	O
with	O
sports	O
thrown	O
in	O
....	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
launched	O
its	O
ESPN	O
webpage	O
on	O
March	O
17	O
,	O
2014	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
lead	O
story	O
by	O
Silver	O
explained	O
that	O
"	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
is	O
a	O
data	O
journalism	O
organization	O
....	O
We	O
've	O
expanded	O
our	O
staff	O
from	O
two	O
full-time	O
journalists	O
to	O
20	O
and	O
counting	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
April	O
2018	O
,	O
it	O
was	O
announced	O
that	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
would	O
be	O
transferred	O
to	O
ABC	O
News	O
from	O
ESPN	O
,	O
Inc.	O
,	O
majority	O
owned	O
by	O
The	O
Walt	O
Disney	O
Company	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
With	O
the	O
reorganization	O
creating	O
the	O
Walt	O
Disney	O
Direct-to-Consumer	O
and	O
International	O
segment	O
in	O
March	O
2018	O
,	O
ABC	O
News	O
Digital	O
and	O
Live	O
Streaming	O
(	O
websites	O
,	O
ABC	O
News	O
Live	O
and	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
)	O
was	O
transferred	O
to	O
the	O
new	O
segment	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
weighs	O
pollsters	O
 '	O
historical	O
track	O
records	O
through	O
a	O
complex	O
methodology	O
and	O
assigns	O
them	O
values	O
to	O
indicate	O
"	O
Pollster-Introduced	O
Error	O
"	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Accordingly	O
,	O
he	O
adapted	O
an	O
approach	O
that	O
he	O
had	O
previously	O
used	O
in	O
his	O
baseball	O
forecasting	O
:	O
using	O
nearest	B-Algorithm
neighbor	I-Algorithm
analysis	I-Algorithm
he	O
first	O
identified	O
"	O
most	O
similar	O
states	O
"	O
and	O
then	O
factored	O
into	O
his	O
electoral	O
projections	O
for	O
a	O
given	O
state	O
the	O
polling	O
information	O
from	O
"	O
similar	O
states	O
"	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
For	O
his	O
general	O
election	O
projections	O
for	O
each	O
state	O
,	O
in	O
addition	O
to	O
relying	O
on	O
the	O
available	O
polls	O
in	O
a	O
given	O
state	O
and	O
"	O
similar	O
states	O
"	O
,	O
Silver	O
estimated	O
a	O
"	O
538	B-Application
regression	O
"	O
using	O
historical	O
voting	O
information	O
along	O
with	O
demographic	O
characteristics	O
of	O
the	O
states	O
to	O
create	O
an	O
estimate	O
that	O
he	O
treated	O
as	O
a	O
separate	O
poll	O
(	O
equivalent	O
to	O
the	O
actually	O
available	O
polls	O
from	O
that	O
state	O
)	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
This	O
approach	O
helped	O
to	O
stabilize	O
his	O
projections	O
,	O
because	O
if	O
there	O
were	O
few	O
if	O
any	O
polls	O
in	O
a	O
given	O
state	O
,	O
the	O
state	O
forecast	O
was	O
largely	O
determined	O
by	O
the	O
538	B-Application
regression	O
estimate	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
After	O
that	O
time	O
,	O
however	O
,	O
he	O
contributed	O
only	O
a	O
handful	O
of	O
articles	O
to	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
devoted	O
more	O
than	O
a	O
dozen	O
articles	O
to	O
the	O
Iranian	O
presidential	O
election	O
in	O
June	O
2009	O
,	O
assessing	O
of	O
the	O
quality	O
of	O
the	O
vote	O
counting	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
covered	O
the	O
November	O
3	O
,	O
2009	O
,	O
elections	O
in	O
the	O
United	O
States	O
in	O
detail	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
writers	O
Schaller	O
,	O
Gelman	O
,	O
and	O
Silver	O
also	O
gave	O
extensive	O
coverage	O
to	O
the	O
January	O
19	O
,	O
2010	O
Massachusetts	O
special	O
election	O
to	O
the	O
U.S.	O
Senate	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
"	O
538	B-Application
model	O
"	O
once	O
again	O
aggregated	O
the	O
disparate	O
polls	O
to	O
correctly	O
predict	O
that	O
the	O
Republican	O
Scott	O
Brown	O
would	O
win	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
spring	O
of	O
2010	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
turned	O
a	O
focus	O
on	O
the	O
United	O
Kingdom	O
general	O
election	O
scheduled	O
for	O
May	O
6	O
,	O
with	O
a	O
series	O
of	O
more	O
than	O
forty	O
articles	O
on	O
the	O
subject	O
that	O
culminated	O
in	O
projections	O
of	O
the	O
number	O
of	O
seats	O
that	O
the	O
three	O
major	O
parties	O
were	O
expected	O
to	O
win	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
UK	O
election	O
was	O
the	O
first	O
time	O
the	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
team	O
did	O
an	O
election	O
night	O
'	O
liveblog	O
 '	O
of	O
a	O
non-U.S.	O
election	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
On	O
June	O
6	O
,	O
2010	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
posted	O
pollster	O
rankings	O
that	O
updated	O
and	O
elaborated	O
Silver	O
's	O
efforts	O
from	O
the	O
2008	O
election	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Silver	O
responded	O
on	O
538	B-Application
:	O
"	O
Where	O
's	O
the	O
transparency	O
?	O
</s>
<s>
As	O
for	O
why	O
the	O
complete	O
538	B-Application
polling	O
database	O
had	O
not	O
been	O
released	O
publicly	O
,	O
Silver	O
responded	O
:	O
"	O
The	O
principal	O
reason	O
is	O
because	O
I	O
do	O
n't	O
know	O
that	O
I	O
'm	O
legally	O
entitled	O
to	O
do	O
so	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Silver	O
also	O
commented	O
on	O
the	O
fact	O
that	O
the	O
538	B-Application
ratings	O
had	O
contributed	O
to	O
Markos	O
Moulitsas	O
's	O
decision	O
to	O
end	O
Daily	O
Kos	O
use	O
of	O
Research	O
2000	O
as	O
its	O
pollster	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
On	O
June	O
3	O
,	O
2010	O
,	O
The	O
New	O
York	O
Times	O
and	O
Silver	O
announced	O
that	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
had	O
formed	O
a	O
partnership	O
under	O
which	O
the	O
blog	O
would	O
be	O
hosted	O
by	O
the	O
Times	O
for	O
a	O
period	O
of	O
three	O
years	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
legal	O
terms	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
granted	O
a	O
"	O
license	O
"	O
to	O
the	O
Times	O
to	O
publish	O
the	O
blog	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
would	O
thus	O
be	O
subject	O
to	O
and	O
benefit	O
from	O
editing	O
and	O
technical	O
production	O
by	O
the	O
Times	O
,	O
while	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
would	O
be	O
responsible	O
for	O
creating	O
the	O
content	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
first	O
column	O
of	O
the	O
renamed	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
:	O
Nate	O
Silver	O
's	O
Political	O
Calculus	O
appeared	O
in	O
the	O
Times	O
on	O
August	O
25	O
,	O
2010	O
,	O
with	O
the	O
introduction	O
of	O
U.S.	O
Senate	O
election	O
forecasts	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
All	O
columns	O
from	O
the	O
original	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
were	O
also	O
archived	O
for	O
public	O
access	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Shortly	O
after	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
relocated	O
to	O
The	O
New	O
York	O
Times	O
,	O
Silver	O
introduced	O
his	O
prediction	O
models	O
for	O
the	O
2010	O
elections	O
to	O
the	O
U.S.	O
Senate	O
,	O
the	O
U.S.	O
House	O
of	O
Representatives	O
,	O
and	O
state	O
Governorships	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
538	B-Application
model	O
had	O
forecast	O
a	O
net	O
pickup	O
of	O
8	O
seats	O
by	O
the	O
Republicans	O
in	O
the	O
Senate	O
and	O
55	O
seats	O
in	O
the	O
House	O
,	O
close	O
to	O
the	O
actual	O
outcome	O
of	O
a	O
pickup	O
of	O
6	O
seats	O
in	O
the	O
Senate	O
and	O
63	O
seats	O
in	O
the	O
House	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
However	O
,	O
of	O
the	O
seven	O
listed	O
writers	O
,	O
only	O
three	O
of	O
them	O
had	O
published	O
on	O
538/New	O
York	O
Times	O
by	O
late	O
December	O
2010	O
:	O
Silver	O
,	O
Renard	O
Sexton	O
and	O
Hale	O
Stewart	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
On	O
September	O
12	O
,	O
2011	O
,	O
Silver	O
introduced	O
another	O
writer	O
:	O
"	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
extends	O
a	O
hearty	O
welcome	O
to	O
John	O
Sides	O
,	O
a	O
political	O
scientist	O
at	O
George	O
Washington	O
University	O
,	O
who	O
will	O
be	O
writing	O
a	O
series	O
of	O
posts	O
for	O
this	O
site	O
over	O
the	O
next	O
month	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
While	O
politics	O
and	O
elections	O
remained	O
the	O
main	O
focus	O
of	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
,	O
the	O
blog	O
also	O
sometimes	O
addressed	O
sports	O
,	O
including	O
the	O
March	O
Madness	O
and	O
the	O
2012	O
NCAA	O
Men	O
's	O
Basketball	O
tournament	O
selection	O
process	O
,	O
the	O
B.C.S.	O
</s>
<s>
rankings	O
in	O
NCAA	O
college	O
football	O
,	O
the	O
NBA	O
,	O
and	O
Major	B-Application
League	I-Application
Baseball	I-Application
matters	O
ranging	O
from	O
the	O
2011	O
attendance	O
at	O
the	O
New	O
York	O
Mets	O
 '	O
Citi	O
Field	O
to	O
the	O
historic	O
2011	O
collapse	O
of	O
the	O
Boston	O
Red	O
Sox	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
addition	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
sometimes	O
turned	O
its	O
attention	O
to	O
other	O
topics	O
,	O
such	O
as	O
the	O
economics	O
of	O
blogging	O
,	O
the	O
financial	O
ratings	O
by	O
Standard	O
&	O
Poors	O
,	O
economists	O
 '	O
tendency	O
to	O
underpredict	O
unemployment	O
levels	O
,	O
and	O
the	O
economic	O
impact	O
and	O
media	O
coverage	O
of	O
Hurricane	O
Irene	O
(	O
2011	O
)	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
published	O
a	O
graph	O
showing	O
different	O
growth	O
curves	O
of	O
the	O
news	O
stories	O
covering	O
Tea	O
Party	O
and	O
Occupy	O
Wall	O
Street	O
protests	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
rolled	O
out	O
its	O
2012	O
general	O
election	O
forecasting	O
model	O
on	O
June	O
7	O
,	O
2012	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
538	B-Application
model	O
correctly	O
predicted	O
the	O
winner	O
of	O
all	O
50	O
states	O
and	O
the	O
District	O
of	O
Columbia	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
launched	O
its	O
ESPN-affiliated	O
stage	O
on	O
March	O
17	O
,	O
2014	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
addition	O
to	O
feature	O
articles	O
it	O
produced	O
podcasts	B-Operating_System
on	O
a	O
range	O
of	O
subjects	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Monthly	O
traffic	O
to	O
the	O
site	O
grew	O
steadily	O
from	O
about	O
2.8	O
million	O
unique	B-Protocol
visitors	I-Protocol
in	O
April	O
2014	O
to	O
10.7	O
million	O
unique	B-Protocol
visitors	I-Protocol
in	O
January	O
2016	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
On	O
September	O
3	O
,	O
2014	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
introduced	O
its	O
forecasts	O
for	O
each	O
of	O
the	O
36	O
U.S.	O
Senate	O
elections	O
being	O
contested	O
that	O
year	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
sought	O
to	O
apply	O
its	O
mathematical	O
models	O
to	O
the	O
Oscars	O
,	O
and	O
produced	O
internal	O
predictions	O
regarding	O
the	O
subject	O
,	O
predicting	O
four	O
out	O
of	O
six	O
categories	O
correctly	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
applied	O
two	O
separate	O
models	O
to	O
forecast	O
the	O
2016	O
presidential	O
primary	O
elections	O
–	O
polls-only	O
and	O
polls-plus	O
models	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
For	O
each	O
contest	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
produced	O
probability	O
distributions	O
and	O
average	O
expected	O
vote	O
shares	O
according	O
to	O
both	O
models	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
As	O
early	O
as	O
June	O
2015	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
argued	O
that	O
Donald	O
Trump	O
"	O
is	O
n't	O
a	O
real	O
candidate	O
"	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
When	O
Donald	O
Trump	O
became	O
the	O
presumptive	O
Republican	O
nominee	O
in	O
May	O
2016	O
,	O
New	O
York	O
Times	O
media	O
columnist	O
Jim	O
Rutenberg	O
wrote	O
that	O
"	O
predictions	O
can	O
have	O
consequences	O
"	O
and	O
criticized	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
for	O
underestimating	O
Trump	O
's	O
chances	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Unlike	O
virtually	O
every	O
other	O
forecast	O
we	O
publish	O
at	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
–	O
including	O
the	O
primary	O
and	O
caucus	O
projections	O
I	O
just	O
mentioned	O
–	O
our	O
early	O
estimates	O
of	O
Trump	O
's	O
chances	O
were	O
n't	O
based	O
on	O
a	O
statistical	O
model	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
On	O
the	O
Democratic	O
side	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
argued	O
that	O
Senator	O
Bernie	O
Sanders	O
could	O
"	O
lose	O
everywhere	O
else	O
after	O
Iowa	O
and	O
New	O
Hampshire	O
"	O
and	O
that	O
the	O
"	O
Democratic	O
establishment	O
would	O
rush	O
in	O
to	O
squash	O
"	O
him	O
if	O
he	O
does	O
not	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Fairness	O
and	O
Accuracy	O
in	O
Reporting	O
,	O
a	O
progressive	O
nonprofit	O
media	O
watch	O
group	O
,	O
wrote	O
in	O
May	O
2016	O
that	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
"	O
sacrificed	O
its	O
integrity	O
to	O
go	O
after	O
Sanders	O
"	O
and	O
that	O
they	O
have	O
"	O
at	O
times	O
gone	O
beyond	O
the	O
realm	O
of	O
punditry	O
into	O
the	O
realm	O
of	O
hackery	O
–	O
that	O
is	O
,	O
not	O
just	O
treating	O
their	O
own	O
opinions	O
as	O
though	O
they	O
were	O
objective	O
data	O
,	O
but	O
spinning	O
the	O
data	O
so	O
that	O
it	O
conforms	O
to	O
their	O
opinions.	O
"	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEights	B-Application
predictions	O
for	O
each	O
state	O
primary	O
,	O
both	O
for	O
the	O
Republican	O
and	O
the	O
Democratic	O
party	O
nominations	O
,	O
were	O
based	O
on	O
statistical	O
analysis	O
,	O
not	O
on	O
the	O
analyst	O
's	O
opinions	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
core	O
data	O
employed	O
were	O
polls	O
,	O
which	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
aggregated	O
for	O
each	O
state	O
(	O
while	O
also	O
considering	O
national	O
polls	O
)	O
using	O
essentially	O
the	O
same	O
method	O
it	O
had	O
employed	O
since	O
2008	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
a	O
comparison	O
of	O
prediction	O
success	O
published	O
by	O
Bloomberg	O
News	O
after	O
the	O
primary	O
season	O
was	O
completed	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
prediction	O
success	O
tied	O
for	O
the	O
highest	O
percentage	O
of	O
correct	O
primary	O
poll	O
winners	O
,	O
at	O
92%	O
;	O
but	O
it	O
lagged	O
behind	O
PredictWise	O
in	O
predicting	O
a	O
larger	O
set	O
of	O
primaries	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Notably	O
,	O
even	O
with	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
track	O
record	O
of	O
correctly	O
predicting	O
elections	O
that	O
pollsters	O
get	O
wrong	O
,	O
it	O
still	O
missed	O
Bernie	O
Sanders	O
's	O
upset	O
victory	O
in	O
the	O
Michigan	O
primary	O
,	O
for	O
instance	O
,	O
regarded	O
as	O
"	O
one	O
of	O
the	O
biggest	O
upsets	O
in	O
modern	O
political	O
history	O
"	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
final	O
prediction	O
by	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
on	O
the	O
morning	O
of	O
election	O
day	O
(	O
November	O
8	O
,	O
2016	O
)	O
had	O
Hillary	O
Clinton	O
with	O
a	O
71%	O
chance	O
to	O
win	O
the	O
2016	O
United	O
States	O
presidential	O
election	O
,	O
while	O
other	O
major	O
forecasters	O
had	O
predicted	O
Clinton	O
to	O
win	O
with	O
at	O
least	O
an	O
85%	O
to	O
99%	O
probability	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEights	B-Application
model	O
pointed	O
to	O
the	O
possibility	O
of	O
an	O
Electoral	O
College-popular	O
vote	O
split	O
widening	O
in	O
final	O
weeks	O
based	O
on	O
both	O
Clinton	O
's	O
small	O
lead	O
in	O
general	O
polls	O
,	O
but	O
also	O
on	O
Trump	O
's	O
improvement	O
in	O
swing	O
states	O
like	O
Florida	O
or	O
Pennsylvania	O
,	O
mixed	O
with	O
Clinton	O
's	O
poor	O
performing	O
in	O
several	O
of	O
those	O
swing	O
states	O
in	O
comparison	O
with	O
Obama	O
's	O
performance	O
in	O
2012	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
projected	O
a	O
much	O
higher	O
probability	O
of	O
Donald	O
Trump	O
winning	O
the	O
presidency	O
than	O
other	O
pollsters	O
,	O
a	O
projection	O
which	O
was	O
criticized	O
by	O
Ryan	O
Grim	O
of	O
the	O
Huffington	O
Post	O
as	O
"	O
unskewing	O
"	O
too	O
much	O
in	O
favor	O
of	O
Trump	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
While	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
expressed	O
that	O
"	O
nonetheless	O
,	O
Clinton	O
is	O
probably	O
going	O
to	O
win	O
,	O
and	O
she	O
could	O
win	O
by	O
a	O
big	O
margin	O
"	O
,	O
the	O
forecaster	O
also	O
made	O
points	O
about	O
the	O
uncertainty	O
of	O
poll	O
trackers	O
in	O
some	O
cases	O
,	O
the	O
considerable	O
number	O
of	O
undecided	O
voters	O
,	O
and	O
the	O
unpredictable	O
outcome	O
in	O
traditional	O
swing	O
states	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
early	O
August	O
2020	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
announced	O
that	O
for	O
their	O
2020	O
general	O
election	O
forecast	O
they	O
had	O
designed	O
a	O
new	O
graphical	O
structure	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
This	O
included	O
going	O
with	O
modular	O
structure	O
,	O
a	O
"	O
ball	O
swarm	O
"	O
design	O
for	O
the	O
chart	O
depicting	O
each	O
candidate	O
's	O
chances	O
,	O
and	O
the	O
addition	O
of	O
a	O
"	O
forecast	O
mascot	B-Application
"	O
named	O
Fivey	O
Fox	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
An	O
episode	O
of	O
"	O
Chart	O
Chat	O
"	O
discussing	O
the	O
design	O
described	O
the	O
direction	O
saying	O
"	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
has	O
leaned	O
heavily	O
towards	O
a	O
cutesy	O
and	O
engaging	O
approach	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
Fivey	O
Fox	O
mascot	B-Application
pops	O
up	O
next	O
to	O
most	O
charts	O
with	O
call-outs	O
to	O
more	O
further	O
information.	O
"	O
</s>
<s>
Hullman	O
also	O
said	O
of	O
the	O
design	O
that	O
the	O
introduction	O
of	O
the	O
mascot	B-Application
,	O
in	O
conjunction	O
with	O
the	O
new	O
simplified	O
look	O
of	O
the	O
page	O
,	O
was	O
"	O
perhaps	O
the	O
strongest	O
indicator	O
that	O
Silver	O
intends	O
to	O
emphasize	O
uncertainty	O
"	O
in	O
his	O
coverage	O
of	O
the	O
2020	O
election	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Jasmine	O
Mithani	O
,	O
visual	O
journalist	O
with	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
,	O
said	O
in	O
an	O
interview	O
when	O
asked	O
about	O
the	O
complaints	O
of	O
new	O
mascot	B-Application
said	O
"	O
I	O
think	O
the	O
biggest	O
complaint	O
about	O
Fivey	O
Fox	O
is	O
that	O
some	O
people	O
find	O
it	O
infantilizing	O
,	O
but	O
that	O
was	O
n't	O
our	O
intention	O
"	O
and	O
that	O
the	O
motivation	O
for	O
including	O
the	O
character	O
was	O
to	O
help	O
make	O
the	O
forecast	O
more	O
of	O
"	O
a	O
teaching	O
tool	O
"	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
November	O
2020	O
,	O
Rolling	O
Stone	O
reported	O
that	O
Fivey	O
Fox	O
had	O
reached	O
over	O
7,000	O
followers	O
on	O
his	O
dedicated	O
Twitter	B-Application
account	I-Application
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
September	O
2008	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
became	O
the	O
first	O
blog	O
ever	O
selected	O
as	O
a	O
Notable	O
Narrative	O
by	O
the	O
Nieman	O
Foundation	O
for	O
Journalism	O
at	O
Harvard	O
University	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
New	O
York	O
Times	O
described	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
in	O
November	O
2008	O
as	O
"	O
one	O
of	O
the	O
breakout	O
online	O
stars	O
of	O
the	O
year	O
"	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Huffington	O
Post	O
columnist	O
Jason	O
Linkins	O
named	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
as	O
No	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
is	O
the	O
2008	O
Weblog	O
Award	O
Winner	O
for	O
"	O
Best	O
Political	O
Coverage	O
"	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
earned	O
a	O
2009	O
"	O
Bloggie	O
"	O
as	O
the	O
"	O
Best	O
Weblog	O
about	O
Politics	O
"	O
in	O
the	O
9th	O
Annual	O
Weblog	O
Awards	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
April	O
2009	O
,	O
Silver	O
was	O
named	O
"	O
Blogger	O
of	O
the	O
Year	O
"	O
in	O
the	O
6th	O
Annual	O
Opinion	O
Awards	O
of	O
The	O
Week	O
,	O
for	O
his	O
work	O
on	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
September	O
2009	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
predictive	O
model	O
was	O
featured	O
as	O
the	O
cover	O
story	O
in	O
STATS	O
:	O
The	O
Magazine	O
for	O
Students	O
of	O
Statistics	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
November	O
2009	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
was	O
named	O
one	O
of	O
"	O
Our	O
Favorite	O
Blogs	O
of	O
2009	O
"	O
(	O
"	O
Fifty	O
blogs	O
we	O
just	O
ca	O
n't	O
get	O
enough	O
of	O
"	O
)	O
by	O
PC	O
Magazine	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
December	O
2009	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
was	O
recognized	O
by	O
The	O
New	O
York	O
Times	O
Magazine	O
in	O
its	O
"	O
Ninth	O
Annual	O
Year	O
in	O
Ideas	O
"	O
for	O
conducting	O
"	O
Forensic	O
Polling	O
Analysis	O
"	O
detective	O
work	O
on	O
the	O
possible	O
falsification	O
of	O
polling	O
data	O
by	O
a	O
major	O
polling	O
firm	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
In	O
June	O
2011	O
,	O
Time	O
"	O
The	O
Best	O
Blogs	O
of	O
2011	O
"	O
named	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
one	O
of	O
its	O
Essential	O
Blogs	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
May	O
2012	O
:	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
won	O
a	O
Webby	O
Award	O
for	O
"	O
Best	O
Political	O
Blog	O
"	O
from	O
the	O
International	O
Academy	O
of	O
Digital	O
Arts	O
and	O
Sciences	O
in	O
the	O
16th	O
annual	O
Webby	O
Awards	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
April	O
2013	O
:	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
won	O
a	O
Webby	O
Award	O
for	O
"	O
Best	O
Political	O
Blog	O
"	O
from	O
the	O
International	O
Academy	O
of	O
Digital	O
Arts	O
and	O
Sciences	O
in	O
the	O
17th	O
annual	O
Webby	O
Awards	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
June	O
2016	O
:	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
was	O
named	O
the	O
"	O
Data	O
Journalism	O
Website	O
of	O
the	O
Year	O
"	O
for	O
2016	O
by	O
the	O
Global	O
Editors	O
Network	O
,	O
a	O
Paris-based	O
organization	O
that	O
promotes	O
innovation	O
in	O
newsrooms	O
around	O
the	O
world	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
won	O
an	O
additional	O
award	O
for	O
"	O
News	O
Data	O
App	O
of	O
the	O
Year	O
(	O
large	O
newsroom	O
)	O
"	O
for	O
"	O
Swing	O
the	O
Election	O
"	O
,	O
an	O
interactive	O
project	O
by	O
Aaron	O
Bycoffe	O
and	O
David	O
Wasserman	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
September	O
2017	O
:	O
The	O
National	O
Academies	O
of	O
Sciences	O
,	O
Engineering	O
,	O
and	O
Medicine	O
awarded	O
a	O
2017	O
Communication	O
Award	O
in	O
the	O
"	O
Online	O
"	O
category	O
to	O
"	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
's	O
Maggie	O
Koerth-Baker	O
,	O
Ben	O
Casselman	O
,	O
Anna	O
Maria	O
Barry-Jester	O
,	O
and	O
Carl	O
Bialik	O
for	O
'	O
Gun	O
Deaths	O
in	O
America	O
 '	O
.	O
</s>
<s>
Fivey	O
Fox	O
is	O
the	O
mascot	B-Application
of	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
.	O
</s>
<s>
The	O
name	O
"	O
Fivey	O
"	O
is	O
a	O
reference	O
to	O
the	O
website	O
's	O
name	O
,	O
FiveThirtyEight	B-Application
.	O
</s>
