Originally Posted by Spider-Fan
GI Joe 2 is a bad example because Tatum was in it (though he was killed off). Let's see how BO for GI Joe 3 shakes out. Now, Bourne is a fair comparison:
Bourne Ultimatum - 227 dom, 442 ww
Bourne Legacy - 113 dom, 276 ww
Bourne lost over 150 million dollars in replacing Damon. That's a fairly steep drop. Yes, it still did fairly well, but I don't think Disney wants to lose money going from Cap 2 to Cap 3. The goal is to keep making the BO money. I think it'd be a dumb move to do this with Cap 3.
It's the reverse. Steve Rogers is in Fallen Son, so Bourne would then be the bad example and GI Joe the fair comparison. Regardless, they both underscore my point that changing protagonists works if you continue the same story and they like the new guy as much or more, which Bourne didn't do in either case. Success or failure is not an arbitrary thing.