It's a Monday morning in the beginning of October and a man enters the Caltrain tracks from a street crossing in Burlingame. He takes a few hundred steps down the rail line, steps on the tracks, closes his eyes and waits for a train to take his life.
That's the most common scenario for those who kill themselves using Caltrains, and it's a problem that has confounded Caltrain for decades. The mystery of why people use Caltrains to commit suicide became a bit clearer Friday with the release of a first-of-its-kind study on the history of suicides on the rail line, and when and where they are likeliest to occur.
A professor and two students at San Jose State examined all the deaths on the tracks from August 1992 to December 2009 and found, for the most part, a confusing picture.
Many of the patterns hat emerged in the 76-page report appear random or unexplainable. For instance, there were 25 total suicides on the 6th, 7th and 25th days of the month, and an average of 3.5 during all the other days. There were only two suicides in September and 29 in October and November.
Overall, deaths on the tracks have increased slightly over the years -- from an average of 5.8 per year in the first full five years of study to nine per year in the past five -- but the researchers said that could be at least partially explained by bumps in population and service.
There were 200 Caltrain deaths during the period studied. About two-thirds were classified by coroners as suicides, most others as accidents or "unintended," and four were homicides.
The most striking findings have to do with location. Although the rail line stretches 75 miles from San Francisco to Gilroy, an amazing 83 percent of suicides occurred in a 25-mile stretch between Burlingame and Sunnyvale. The researchers, citing interviews with Caltrain officials, chalked this up to the dense population and familiarity with the rail line.
"The rail system is much more integrated with the communities there," said lead investigator Jan Botha, a civil engineering professor. "In years past, the communities clustered around rail stations because that's the way people commute."
What's more, two-thirds of all unintended deaths happened in a 25-mile stretch between South San Francisco and Palo Alto.
More specifically, most of the deaths occurred within 1,600 feet of a station or street crossing, although very few occurred at a station or crossing. The researchers suggested a pattern: The suicidal person would enter the tracks via one of the two typical public access points, a station or street crossing, then walk a short distance to avoid interference from any passers-by. They also found men are 3½ times more likely than women to use the Caltrain tracks as a means to commit suicide, which they said falls in line with similar studies of railroad deaths around the world.
As for timing, most of the deaths occurred during weekdays, especially Mondays and Fridays, and were most common during commute times. This could be at least partially explained by convenience, since there are more trains running during that time, but it could also have to do with the psychological burden known as "new beginnings" that come with the start of a week, the researchers said.
Caltrain's public affairs chief Mark Simon, whose office has stepped up outreach in response to the "cluster" of teenage deaths in Palo Alto last year, said the findings did not identify any gaping holes in its system.
"Is there more we can do? Absolutely, even if it's more of the same," Simon said. "It's a reminder that we should do what we're doing. We should try to do more of it."
Still, he said he had mixed emotions because officials were also partly hoping the data would point to some trend they had missed, thereby allowing them to make improvements they had not previously thought of. Botha and his students did not make any recommendations for fixes; rather they suggested Caltrain continue to keep on top of the situation and monitor patterns.
Mike Rosenberg covers San Mateo, Burlingame, Belmont and transportation. Contact him at 650-348-4324.
Caltrain suicide trends
Data from a study analyzed by San Jose State researchers reveal common scenarios for suicides between 1992 and 2009.
Most common location: Between
Burlingame and Sunnyvale
Most common months: March, May and October
Most common days: Monday and Friday
Most common time: During commute hours
Most common gender: Male
Source: San Jose State
deaths on the tracks
5.8 per year
Average number of deaths in first five years of study
9 per year
Average number of deaths in past five years of study