Parts of the UK could face water shortages, rapidly rising house prices and threats to wildlife and landscapes without major changes to how land is managed, a report warned today.
The chief scientific adviser, professor John Beddington, said sticking with "business as usual" management of land was not an option in the face of pressures such as climate change and population increases over the next 50 years.
The Foresight report on the future of land use said addressing these major challenges would need a strategic and integrated approach, rather than the fragmented policies of the past.
Land is also likely to come under pressure from an increasingly wealthy population to provide more living space and recreation, and the need to produce food and green energy – from wind farms to fuels made from crops – to meet targets on renewable energy.
Pressure on land is expected to be particularly acute in the south-east, where population is expected to grow most but where water is scarcest and most of the best farmland is found.
In the coming years, changes to the climate – including warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers – will affect water supplies, increase flood risk and could damage wildlife and habitats such as ancient woodland.
At the same time, the need to meet EU targets to boost renewable energy and fuel and reduce greenhouse gas emissions through managing soils and forests will also require innovative ways of looking after the land.
Contrary to popular belief, just 10% of land in England is developed – with half of that made up of gardens – while 12% is forest and woodland, and three-quarters is farmed.
The report found that, until now, measures to look after the land had managed to contain urban sprawl, ensured there was enough for food production, provided green spaces and preserved beautiful landscapes.
But in the future, a failure to manage land in a joined-up way could result in shortages of resources and "public goods" such as water, wildlife and urban green space, it warned.
Beddington said: "Over the next 50 years, we cannot manage land in the way we've done. We've got too many competing issues, so much change going on, and we need to get much smarter about how we manage land. Business as usual is not an option."
Options include incentive schemes for landowners to provide services such as flood storage, water supplies, wildlife protection and access for people to enjoy the great outdoors.
"Without being smart about how land is used, we risk missing targets, such as halting biodiversity loss," Beddington said. "The effects of climate change and new pressures on land could escalate, seriously eroding quality of life."
Professor Mark Tewdwr-Jones, who was involved in the report, said a new approach was needed, including establishing clear objectives for what the land should be for and how to manage changes to its use.