The Constitutional Court's ruling signal that it took the conjunctural and strategic importance of the case into consideration in its decision-taking process.
Giving a "serious warning" to the party means the court would continue to monitor it.
It can be said that this ruling cannot be considered as a victory or defeat for anybody. However the most important thing would be what kind of steps the ruling AKP would take after the decision.
There is a crucial period for the AKP to use this process as an opportunity to eliminate the radical names in the party. AKP had moved to a more moderate and calm position from its aggressive reactions after the closure case was filed. And this change can be seen as a positive sign.
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE
-ELECTIONS: In one scenario, the AKP could call early general elections or decide to combine possible early elections with local elections, scheduled for March 2009, to improve its image and re-gain the confidence of the public.
-REVISIONS: Prime Minsiter Tayyip Erdogan could call for a reshuffle of the cabinet or party administrative bodies. Sources close to Erdogan say he considers a reshuffle.
-COMPROMISE: The AKP could develop formulas or rhetoric to seek compromise in order to reduce the tension.
-THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS: The AKP could take steps to strike a deal with opposition parties for a constitutional amendments package which would toughen conditions for party closure.