Human Events-Gravis Marketing Texas Poll
Human Events-Gravis Marketing, conducted a random survey of 729 likely republican primary voters in Texas regarding Republican Steve Stockman and Republican John Cornyn between 2/10/14 and 2/12/14. The poll carries a margin of error of 3.6%. The telephone poll was conducted using automated phone calls to landlines and live operators contacting cellphone only households.
The Telephone poll centered on voters’ approval of Stockman and Cornyn and surveyed voters on candidate preference if the election were held today. John Cornyn, the Senate Minority Whip who has held his seat since 2002 has been cast by GOP challenger Congressman Steve Stockman as a beltway insider and will likely try to frame his challenge to the seat as a referendum on Washington politics.
Douglas Kaplan of Gravis Marketing states, “Congressman Stockman is much closer than expected. Cornyn is under 50% with a significant amount still undecided, which is dangerous territory for an incumbent. The poll was conducted before Cornyn’s recent cloture vote on raising the debt limit, which could hurt him among conservative primary voters.”
Among all registered voters when asked “Do you approve or disapprove of Republican Steve Stockman?”, 55% indicated they were unsure while 28% approved and 18% disapproved. Further, when asked “Do you approve or disapprove of John Cornyn?”, 49% indicated they approved, 26% disapproved and 24% were unsure.
Lastly, when asked, “If the election for U.S. Senate Primary were held today, would you vote for Republican Steve Stockman or Republican John Cornyn?”, Cornyn holds a 15-point lead (43% to 28%) over Stockman with 29% of voters expressing uncertainty over their choice. The uncertain voters at this stage in the contest could indicate that Stockman’s entry into race on December 9, 2013 has inserted uncertainty into the minds of Cornyn supporters or those who may have abstained from voting.
Examining these data on party identification and ideology metrics, voters surveyed about their approval of Stockman showed a modest majority of uncertainty among Independents (54.9%) and Republicans (54.2%), while only 32.7% of identified Republicans indicated they approved of this candidate. For Cornyn, voters appeared to be more salient in their preferences with uncertainty at 23.9% among Independents and 21.9% among Republicans; 41.4% of Independents expressed disapproval, while only 20.2% of Republicans disapproved.
Support for Cornyn rests primarily in Republicans at 57.9%, while 34.7% of Independents expressed approval.
The most significant data here rests among those surveyed who identified themselves as Very Conservative. Among these voters, Cornyn holds a 12.3 percentage point advantage over Stockman (46.2% to 33.9%). Interestingly, among this group of voters, the uncertainty gap was significant with 21.9% expressing uncertainty about Cornyn’s candidacy and 50.6% indicating the same for Stockman.
Do you approve or disapprove of Republican Steve Stockman?
Do you approve or disapprove of John Cornyn?
If the election for U.S. Senate Primary were held today, would you vote for Republican Steve Stockman or Republican John Cornyn?
The following questions are for demographic purposes.
What is your political party affiliation?
Are you Hispanic?
What race do you identify yourself as?
Politically speaking, how would you describe you your political views?
Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
What is the highest level of education you have completed?
How old are you?
What is your Gender?
Note: the telephone polls were conducted using automated telephone for landlines (692 responses) and live cell phone calls for cell phones (37 responses). The results are weighed according to anticipated voting geographic and demographics characteristics.