In today’s paper, we published a story about a mathematical model four Rice University seniors have developed showing how the city of Houston’s animal shelter can achieve “no kill” status (defined as 90 percent of the animals leaving the shelter alive).
The model, which focuses only on dogs, shows which methods would be most effective in seeking “no kill” status: first, reduce the number of dogs received (via education and spay-neuter programs); second, expand the kennel; third, transfer more dogs to others (such as rescue groups); fourth, increase adoptions.
Just because these are the most effective levers does not mean they are the most cost-effective or the most realistic, as the students acknowledge. Halving intake or tripling the size of the shelter, they note, would make BARC no kill, but neither is likely.
I would highly recommend you try out the model yourself. Some quick instructions: I’d recommend first clicking the “Houston” button, which will set the graph to BARC’s current reality (the shelter has a live release rate of 54 percent). You can then drag the bars on the left to increase various “multipliers.” For those allergic to math, if the multiplier for adoptions is moved to 2.0, that means you’ve simulated what would happen to the live release rate if BARC were to double the number of dogs adopted. (Also note that when Austin went from a 49 percent live release rate in 2007 to a 92 percent rate last year, they doubled transfers and adoptions and cut intake by a tenth; if BARC were to follow that model, it also would reach “no kill”).
Though no-kill experts say increasing adoptions and transfers is the proven path to success and that it is difficult to greatly drive down intake, animal control experts agree Houston needs more spay-neuter capacity. Houston spends less than half as much per capita on animal control as Austin, noted Amy Mills, of Austin-based Emancipet.
“The demand is overwhelming. It’s just a matter of funding, who’s going to pay for it,” said Laura Welch, of Houston-based Spay-Neuter Assistance Program. “Are the people able to pay for it, is the government going to pay for it, or is it getting more donations and foundations to pay for it?”
Welch and Mills said their organizations provide low-cost procedures at their clinics, and also provide free procedures using mobile labs they take to areas that struggle with strays (such as the Near Northside in Houston). Welch’s SNAP fixes 30,000 animals each year, a third of those for free to owners on government assistance.
Here is a poster explaining the students’ presentation, include a map showing where BARC picks up the most animals: