Stephen Stirling, who blogs for NJ.com and The Star-Ledger as The Weather Guy took some time this afternoon to answer a few of the big questions we've been hearing. Stephen filed this report at 2 p.m.
Q: Do the computer models still matter? Is there any chance now that this misses us?
A: At this point, no. There is little chance that Sandy does not make landfall in New Jersey this afternoon or early evening. While the exact path of Sandy’s center can still change some, a difference of 50 or even 100 miles isn’t going to change what New Jersey experiences dramatically. Every resident of the Garden State should prepare to be affected by hurricane conditions for several hours.
Q: When will we see the worst coastal flooding, tonight at high tide or tomorrow?
A: Coastal flooding likely will peak tonight as the storm approaches the coast. Areas to the north of where Sandy makes landfall are under the largest threat. In these areas, the water level could rise several feet above the highest levels ever recorded. That said, coastal flooding is likely to continue during Tuesday morning’s high tide, though it is not currently expected to be as severe.
Q: Why are people saying this is behaving worse than a Category-1 storm?
A: There are numerous factors coming together that make Sandy unique, and frankly, nearly unbelievable.
First, Sandy is strengthening. Because of cooler waters, tropical systems that approach New Jersey typically weaken as they near the state. Sandy is a hybrid of a tropical system and a nor’easter. Nor’easters feed off of a different kind of energy, the interplay between warm and cold air masses, to strengthen. Because Sandy is taking on the characteristics of a nor’easter, it can strengthen rapidly as it approaches.
Secondly, Sandy is gigantic. The storm is still well off the New Jersey coast and tropical storm force winds are being experienced as far north as New Hampshire. When the storm makes landfall, parts of New Jersey could see wind gusts over 100 miles per hour, something that has seldom occurred in the Garden State’s history.
New Jersey has never had a hurricane make a direct landfall from the east, either -- tropical systems typically are charging northeast as they approach the state. Tropical systems rotate in a counter-clockwise manner, so on the north side of the storm winds are pushing water from the ocean toward New Jersey. Because the storm is forecast to make an east-to-west landfall, a tremendous amount of water could be pushed ashore, pushing tides to heights never seen in modern history.
Q: What types of things are meteorologists saying that they don't want to have attributed to them?
A: Most are at a loss for words. They fear for the loss of life. They fear property damage could be catastrophic. They fear that the power infrastructure could be decimated. I’ve never talked to professional forecasters with more fear in their voice.
Q: For people not on the coast, when will they see the worst?
A: Over the next few hours. Sandy has sped up and could make landfall between 4 and 5 p.m. The worst conditions will be felt from 3 p.m. through the night.
Q: When will it end?
A: Conditions should gradually improve Tuesday, rain and heavy winds will likely still be occurring during the morning hours.
Q: Is there any good news?
A: There is. River flooding may not be an issue for northern New Jersey as it was during Irene. This is not a rainstorm for the northern half of the state. Coastal flooding and wind are the biggest threats.