How DID he do that? All of Britain guessing how Derren Brown stunned the world by predicting the lottery results
The top theories:
- Split-screen trickery?
- A false wall hiding an assistant?
- 'E-ink' balls?
- Filming every possible combination?
- Or is Derren just magic...
Derren Brown is a man who has appeared to play Russian Roulette on live television, using a revolver filled with genuine ammunition. But even by his standards, his latest stunt was a real jaw-dropper.
On Wednesday at 10.35pm, having boasted for days that he would predict the six main ball numbers in the midweek National Lottery draw, Brown went on-air, live across all Channel 4's terrestrial and satellite channels.
At exactly the same time, BBC1 broadcast the draw, also live. On the stage of the studio from which Brown was broadcasting stood a television, to show the BBC draw.
A few feet away, to the left as the viewer saw it, stood a clear plastic stand. On top of the stand were six white, lottery-sized balls.
Brown claimed the winning numbers, as predicted by him, had already been written on the balls.
They would, he said, be revealed after the draw had been made. The six main numbers drawn by the lottery machine were, in numerical order, 2, 11, 23, 28, 35, 39. And the numbers written on the balls in Brown's studio were, yes, 2, 11, 23, 28, 35, 39.
Brown had not bought a ticket for the Lottery. That's a pity, because if he really did predict the right numbers he would have been the only person to do so. There were no claimants for the £2.4million jackpot.
What followed was a media frenzy. Newspapers, TV and radio programmes and websites have competed to come up with theories to explain the magic and illusion behind Brown's stunt.
Other magicians have remained silent, true to their profession's code of secrecy.
Jack Delvin, president of the Magic Circle said: 'Our first rule is we don't discuss secrets of tricks. For the duration of the effect happening, we try to suspend disbelief. So it is no good talking about how it is done.'
The Mail, however, is under no such constraints So let's start by looking closely at Brown's broadcast.
It lasted just six-and-a-half minutes, and the first thing one notices is that for almost five minutes, Brown never stops talking.
He jabbers, non-stop at high speed, the words tumbling out, breathlessly, as if to convey the excitement of the moment.
His hands never stop moving. So the viewers' minds and eyes are constantly being distracted.
And distraction is a fundamental principle of magic. Brown starts by hyping up the task he is attempting.
He assures the viewers he's not doing anything illegal, and explains that for legal reasons he can show only a couple of minutes of the BBC broadcast.
Then he stands behind the six balls and explains that the numbers have already been written upon them in numerical order.
One might think that the best way to predict the numbers would be to announce them, in advance, seconds before they are actually drawn. That way, Brown would make his numbers public and the world would watch, breathless, to see if they were then drawn.
But, he says, Camelot, the Lottery company, has told him: 'The BBC has a legal right to announce the Lottery numbers first. Because of that, I can't show you the numbers until just after they've been announced.'
How convenient. And how suggestive, also, that the whole basis of Brown's trick is that he has somehow found a way to get the numbers onto the balls in the short space of time between that announcement and his final 'reveal'.
And so it goes on as Brown talks and talks. Just before the numbers are drawn, he produces a large piece of card - white on one side, black on the reverse - on which he will write the numbers that are drawn, using a pen produced from a trouser pocket.
Finally, after four minutes and four seconds, the first ball rolls out of the machine. And Derren Brown stops talking. With his back half-turned to the camera as he watches the BBC broadcast, he raises his left hand to his mouth, as if in rapt concentration.
And he keeps it there for 45 seconds, during which the draw is made. During that time it looks to a suspicious eye as though he is breathing or mumbling into his hand. Is a microphone in there? Does he have some sort of breath-activated control?
Only after all the balls have been selected does Brown write the numbers down on his card. That done, he walks across to stand behind the six prediction balls, grabs the stand, turns it around and there - hey presto! - are the correct numbers in the same order that he has written on the card.
How did he do it? Well, the five most credible theories go as follows:
1. A split-screen technique would make it seem as though we were looking at one live shot, when in fact, the image of the left half of the screen on which the balls stood had been pre-recorded and patched onto the live action on the right, where Brown was standing.
This would allow the numbers to be applied to the balls without the viewer seeing. The pre-recorded image would be removed as Brown went to stand behind the balls - with the correct numbers written on them - and the whole screen would then go live.
2.The numbers were projected onto the balls using a projector hidden somewhere in the auditorium.
3. The studio was not as simple and bare as it seemed. False walls were used to conceal assistants who printed numbers on the balls as the numbers appeared.
4. Sleight of hand: Derren had hidden a set of balls up his sleeve and somehow managed to get the numbers onto them, and swap them for the balls on the stand without anyone noticing. This might, perhaps, have something to do with why he had his hand to his face during the draw.
5. There was an electronic link between the card on which Brown wrote the numbers and the balls standing several feet away. So as he hand-wrote the numbers on the card, they were somehow printed (see Theory 1) on the balls.
Brown himself has provided a clue in a trailer for a programme tonight, where he will explain his feat, at the end of which he holds up a model snowflake.
I suspect Brown is telling us the stunt was a 'snow-job', a term defined as 'an effort to deceive, overwhelm, or persuade with insincere talk and flattery'.
I've interviewed Brown and I know he is fascinated by psychological techniques, including so-called Neuro-Linguistic Programming, which uses particular words to imprint thoughts on the human mind.
He told me: 'The reason I do magic is to shake people's belief systems up a bit. It's all about trying to create a psychological journey, because that's what magic is.'
I suspect the apparently blathering words that tumbled out of his mouth for the first minutes of the programme were carefully chosen to imprint ideas onto our minds.
And I think I can sum up everything he's going to say tonight into three words: 'You've been had.'
Of course it wasn't a lucky guess... it's magic!
By PAUL DANIELS
Derren Brown may not call himself a magician, he may insist he doesn't do tricks, and that his ability to predict the winning Lottery numbers is down to nothing but a combination of mind-blowing calculation and genuine psychic skill.
But, make no mistake, he is one of us. Perhaps you watched him on Wednesday night, accepting everything you saw as truth.
Perhaps you'll watch again tonight expecting to hear his formula for picking the right numbers every time.
But I have been in this business for 60 years, and I don't see things the way you do.
What I saw was a trick, pulled off with aplomb, and it took me just a moment to think of two
-and-a-half decent ways to get it done.
But just as I would never dream of telling an audience my secrets, I would never tell Derren's either.
I can't know for sure which of the myriad methods he might have used, so there is no point speculating.
But what I can say with certainty is that, what he did on Wednesday night, magicians have been doing for ever - for as long as psychics, mind-readers and 'mentalists' like Derren have been claiming to have special powers.
Mentalism - the form of magic that has become his stock-in-trade - is just one part of the magician's art.
I have book upon book on ways to 'predict the future', and I have used them to magical effect in the past, predicting everything from newspaper headlines to bingo numbers.
Using certain methods (which I have no intention of divulging) it's possible to predict pretty much anything you like.
Two weeks after the National Lottery was first aired on the BBC, I went to the programme planning department and said: 'Let's do a Lottery prediction.'
The answer was 'no', and the reason was understandable: The BBC, which had only just won the licence to present it, couldn't risk the public thinking that the results had been fixed or tampered with.
A trick performed well should convince an audience that we can really do what we claim. But anyone with half a brain knows that the number of psychics and performers with Derren's apparent talent for foresight who have actually won the Lottery or picked the Grand National winner tells you all you need to know about their real capabilities.
I could teach you as much as anyone knows about 'predicting the future'. I know all the tricks and you could learn them in about three days flat.
But I guarantee at the end of it you would be no closer to hitting the jackpot.
It's an aside, but did you know that if you buy a Lottery ticket on Monday morning for the following Saturday's draw, you have more chance of dying that week than collecting the top prize?
I guarantee you that even Derren Brown faces those same odds. The job of a magician is to make dreams a reality.
We are actors playing the role of a man who can do anything. The best tricks in the world begin with the thought: What do I wish I was able to do?
We wish we could pluck money out of thin air and make beautiful girls appear with a click of fingers.
We wish we could fly, disappear and, perhaps above all, predict the Lottery results. Magic makes all those things appear possible.
But appearances, of course, are deceptive. Derren is a master of deception. He pretended to be nervous when, in fact, the result of the draw had no bearing on whether his trick would work.
I love to be deceived - we all do - which is why magicians should never reveal their methods.
We are just entertainers, and without mystery, our art is nothing. I hope he doesn't reveal his method tonight, but I can't believe that he will.
Derren, like all magicians, deals in lies and half-truths. Although it is possible to execute 'future-prediction' tricks without the aid of technology, there's no doubt in my mind that, to present it in the way he did, he used some technological trickery on this occasion - and to admit that would spoil the fun.
So, I hope when he is asked how it was done, he answers with just two words: 'Absolutely brilliantly.'
How did he do it? The theories in more detail...
Theory 1: Camera trickery
Are the cameras playing tricks with us?
We know this wasn't pre-recorded (although check out Theory 4) as we saw the live BBC feed, and we have been assured the lottery footage wasn't delayed.
The BBC were nervous about his act - previously blocking him from doing a similar show on their own channels - and would be unlikely to have a hand in the illusion.
But could Derren have used 'split-screen tricks' to trick us? With the right-hand of the screen showing a live shot of Derren, whereas the left-hand-side is a pre-recorded snapshot of an empty podium.
This would allow a helper, invisible to the viewer, to scribble the numbers on the balls down as they are drawn.
The camera was, judging by the shaking image, hand-held, which seems to rule this out, but there is one 'cutaway' one minute into the broadcast, which some viewers have speculated allowed some camera tricks to take place.
Likelihood: Slight, Derren has eschewed technological wizardry in past acts, and such a simple trick would likely be beneath his ways, or seen as cheating. Also, introducing a split-screen on a bouncing visual is beyond the means of anything that doesn't come with a Holllywood budget.
However... Some commentators believe Derren is wearing a different shirt at the start of the illusion than at the end... Can you see a difference?
Also... Some viewers claim to see a break in the video when Derren reads out 35 as he writes the numbers down... Is this when the live footage comes back in? Is Derren's 'woooah' sound a few seconds earlier an indication that the switch has been made?
Theory 2: False walls
We've perhaps ruled out split-screen trickery, but could there be a 'false wall' in sight? For instance there could be a backdrop hanging from the television, or the podium, painted to match the far walls, behind which a helper could sit and scribble the numbers on the balls.
If the helper was under the podium, they could write the numbers on the balls without being seen by the viewers.
If they were behind the television, they could pass the balls to Derren when he leans in to switch off the television.
A further theory is that the whole back-wall is a painting, placed just a foot or two behind the podium.
Likelihood: Quite possible. The works of 3D artists such as Kurt Wenner, who has been featured before in the Mail, show that it is possible to produce perception-bending realistic backdrops. Someone out of sight could easily replace the white balls, or slip replacements to Derren Brown.
If so, it is most likely they hid behind the podium and scribbled the numbers on the balls directly, as there seems no opportunity - in our freeze-frame world - of Derren replacing the six balls without being spotted.
Also... Some viewers say they can spot 'something white' up Derren's sleeve. Can you see it?
Theory 3: The electric ink ball
One theory, favoured by the Mail Online's science editor, is that the white lottery balls have an e-ink screen to instantly translate the right numbers on to the balls.
As the lottery was called, the numbers could be translated wirelessly to the balls, which have a screen embedded in them, similar to how some mp3 players appear to have invisible screens until text is displayed.
Other variations on this theory include a distant inkjet 'firing' the numbers on to the balls from a distance, but this is likely to be too complex with a high-risk of failure to be taken seriously.
However this theory comes back in to play if there is a false wall just a foot or two behind the podium, as ink could then be shot directly onto the balls.
Likelihood: Possible, but not likely. Again, Derren does not like to use hi-tech gadgetry to pull off a trick, so this is likely to be a 'no-no'.
Also, Derren promises 'we can try this at home' in the future, so this makes us lean more towards sleight-of-hand trickery.
Theory 4: Filming every possible combination
Derren would have worked himself into the ground for this one.
What if he 'invested a year of his life' by filming every single combination of numbers?
However this theory can be kicked right into touch - with nearly 14million possible combinations, Derren would have needed to start filming before he was born - and we'd quickly notice if Derren turned into a teenager while reading the results.
And there would also be a noticeable video 'cut' between Derren's live recording and a cut to a pre-recorded segment.
Theory 5: Derren has found a system
Every year someone claims to come up with a 'unbeatable' way of predicting the lottery. From statistical analysis of which numbers are 'bound' to come up soon, to using the sun, moon and stars (and your birth date) to find the right combination, you can buy a dozen such 'fool-proof' systems over the internet for a fiver.
But you might be better off just buying five tickets.
Likelihood: If it's true, Camelot is doomed.
Other clues in the video
A feature of Derren's shows is, when he reveals his methods, to replay footage from earlier in the show where, with hindsight, it is easy to spot the joins.
So were there any tells in Derren's video?
First off, it is likely that some of Derren's 'facts' at the start of the show were more to heighten the illusion.
He told us that legally, the BBC has the first right to show the lottery numbers.
Fair enough, but why should that stop him showing us what was only - at this point - a prediction? It would have been a lot more incredible to see the six numbers on-screen before the live draw.
More likely - despite his protestations - is that there was no prediction before the draw, and the numbers appeared on the balls only after they had been called.
What is worth noting is Derren's frantic, on-edge persona, which is a way to add drama to an act that, in likelihood, has been planned to such a degree that the outcome is inevitable. Not only does it add drama, but it allows for some misdirection.
As such, the audience skirts over his blabbering on, but it is likely some of his words will be replayed tomorrow night with more significance.
For instance, why did he stress the word 'initial'? Why did he tell us there was a 'close-up there so you can see no tampering going on' - when there was no such close-up? What did he mean by 'tampering '? What were some of the phrases he spoke at break-neck speed?
At the start of the video, Derren tells us there are two cameramen, but we only see through one camera - except for one brief moment after one minute. Is this to allow some video wizardry to take place?
Some watchers believe they can spot something up Derren's sleeve while he writes down the numbers, they also wonder if he is passed six numbered balls as he goes to turn off the television at the end of the trick - possibly because of a well-painted backdrop masking someone standing behind the television.
What we can say for sure is that Derren is a master of misdirection.
All those words he spoke about studying the numbers for a year? All those times he stressed 'I'm hoping for six numbers, I'll be happy to get five numbers right, I'll apologise in advance if I get them all wrong'...?
All just part of the act.
It would be dangerous to put our name to one theory or the other, especially with the reveal only a day away.
But one thing we can be sure of is that Derren is not magic, supernatural or mystical - or if he is, he's still keeping it to himself.
At some point during the ten seconds between the results being announced and Derren turning the podium around, the numbers appear on the balls. The big question is how, and it is one we will keep wondering until tomorrow night on Channel 4 at 9pm.
Until then, the footage is below, so watch and let us know your own theories in the comments!
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