Ben, you're model has a few basic flaws and unjustified assumptions. I'll start on them now. Though you have admitted yourself that your belief in this god is NOT based on the need for an uncaused cause, but rather signs that the universe is created (possibly in combination with the previous), so perhaps we should talk about that in a bit as well.
1) The assumption causation works outside the Universe. From what we understand of the universe, causation is a property of time
and time is a mutable
property of the universe itself. Thus we can conclude that if it exists at all, causation "outside" of the universe works quite differently. Furthermore, it is impossible to have something "before" the universe, because "before" is, gain, a property of time, which we don't have without the universe.
2) That causation implies creation. You still haven't provided any rational explanation for elevating the cause (anything that made the universe) to a creator (something that intentionally made the universe).
3) You still haven't explained why a first cause that created our universe is any more likely than one much further down the chain. And if there are, say, a million events between the birth of our universe and that first cause, why we should care about it.
4) Why does the first cause need to be a thing at all? Why not an event? In response to your comment about my equation being "X then X", replace it with "The beginning of the Universe then The Rest of the Universe", a clear "X, then Y". Because that's what I was bringing up there.
We are looking at a film in progress. Do we conclude the film had no beginning? That it always "was"? Or that is infinite in both directions? Are there clues and pointers as to what it's attributes are?
And this brings up basically all my problems with your arguments. Who was the "creator" of the film, who caused it?
The guy who filmed it? The director? They guy who turns on the projector? The audience, by seeing it and recreating it in their own minds, are they all creating the film?
Did these people "come before" the first frame of the film - did they cause the first frame, and the first frame caused the rest? No, obviously not - such causation only exists within the film.
Now, instead of a film, let's talk about the universe I generated the other day, the sort of thing that generally informs my own belief. It was only a pocket universe, but I don't think it was too bad. Who "created" it? Me, who set its parameters and set the cogs in motion? The engineer who built the machine I used to piece it together and built the algorithms that let someone as stupid as me do so? The machine itself?
Or do we go all the way back to the beginning of our own universe? To the people in this universe, who is their "creator" here? Is it really the same as their first cause? Is it even one individual being?