Rarely have the limits of modern meteorology been more obvious than they are in NOAA's winter weather outlook. It says there's an equal chance that Southern California will have an above normal, below normal, or just plain normal winter. The outlook says the same for about two-thirds of the country, including all of New England and the Midwest.
The guess work is being blamed on the lack of an El Nino or a La Nina.
Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, says in a statement, "It’s a challenge to produce a long-term winter forecast without the climate pattern of an El Niño or a La Niña in place out in the Pacific because those climate patterns often strongly influence winter temperature and precipitation here in the United States. Without this strong seasonal influence, winter weather is often affected by short-term climate patterns, such as the Arctic Oscillation, that are not predictable beyond a week or two. So it’s important to pay attention to your local daily weather forecast throughout the winter.”
Those challenges didn't entirely stifle NOAA, which says:
The Precipitation Outlook favors:
Below-average precipitation in the Southwest, Southeast and the Alaskan panhandle.
Above-average precipitation in the Northern Rockies, particularly over Montana and northern Wyoming and in Hawaii.
The Temperature Outlook favors:
Below-average temperatures in the Northern Plains and the Alaskan Panhandle.
Above-average temperatures in the Southwest, the South-Central U.S., parts of the Southeast, New England and western Alaska.