Abrupt and potentially deadly climate change can be delayed
about 40 years without the need for enormously costly cuts in
carbon dioxide emissions, according to a new study by a team
including scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Cutting back on non-CO2 contributors to climate change will push
back the threshold for reaching a dangerous level of global
warming, stated the study, published Monday in the Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences. Its authors include Mario Molina
and Veerabhadran Ramanathan of the institution, part of UC San
Strategies such as reducing the levels of black carbon soot,
ozone and hydrofluorocarbons, and increased trapping of carbon in
vegetation provide the "fastest climate response" to counteract
global warming, according to the paper.
"They can complement strategies for adapting to the effect of
climate change by delaying warming for several decades, reducing
adaptation costs, and mitigating risks to ecosystems and economic
prosperity," the paper stated.
In other words, focusing on carbon dioxide ---- the most widely
publicized component of the greenhouse effect ---- is not the most
efficient way to gain quick relief from global warming, the paper
Taking strong action against non-CO2 greenhouse contributors is
a "down payment on climate," co-author Durwood Zaelke said in a
statement. It would also be timely, with climate negotiations
beginning in Copenhagen in December, said Zaelke, co-director of
the Program for Governance for Sustainable Development at UC Santa
However, the authors say the strategy only delays, but doesn't
remove, the need to come to grips with carbon dioxide
Increased levels of carbon dioxide trap more heat on Earth,
causing its temperature to rise. Carbon dioxide is transparent to
visible light, but absorbs infrared light, trapping heat similar to
the way a greenhouse works.
Burning fossil fuels such as coal and oil adds carbon dioxide to
the air, which most climate scientists say is causing temperatures
to rise rapidly. And if warming continues, they warn, it will reach
a tipping point that makes further warming inevitable.
Unfavorable consequences of global warming are predicted to
include more frequent droughts, famines and increased levels of
species extinctions. So governments acting on this information are
imposing increasingly strict standards on carbon dioxide
However, rolling back carbon dioxide levels far enough to
forestall warming would require an economic restructuring that,
according to various estimates, could easily consume hundreds of
billions of dollars.
An August report from Sandia National Laboratories estimated a
$390 billion cost for a program to produce 90 billion gallons per
year of cellulosic ethanol by 2030. This ethanol, produced from
non-food parts of plants, becomes cost-competitive with gasoline at
crude oil prices of $90 per barrel and above.
Burning ethanol and other biofuels such as algae-based fuels
puts carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, as do fossil fuels.
However, their production takes carbon dioxide from the
The study, "Reducing abrupt climate change using the Montreal
Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2
emissions," can be found online at http://www.pnas.org.
The Sandia report, "Feasibility, economics, and environmental
impact of producing 90 billion gallons of ethanol per year by
2030," can be found at sandia.gov.
Call staff writer Bradley J. Fikes at 760-739-6641. Read his
blogs at bizblogs.nctimes.com.