CASE Program – Day Two
13 August, 0930-1130
Opening Plenary: Framing the Discussion on Complex Systems
The opening session, moderated by Dr. Wilson Felder, will set the tone for the remainder of the event. The session will provide the opportunity to hear from key thought leaders in the complexity business as well as from successful complex aerospace systems practitioners. A key challenge for the aerospace community is to develop the theoretical underpinnings for systems engineering and this session will allow for discussion and development of those foundational themes. Dr. Felder drafted a paper for further frame the discussion on complexity.
Best-Selling Author and
of Risk Engineering at
New York University’s
Technical Project Director, Red Bull Stratos
The session structure is as follows:
- 0900 hrs – Wilson Felder (Stevens Institute of Techology) will provide an opening address and set the ground rules for CASE 2013.
- 0940 hrs – Outbriefs on the Monday workshop and primer sessions:
- Thomas Irvine (NASA) – Report from the Executive Workshop
- Jimmie McEver (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory) – Brainstorming Primer report.
- 1010 hrs – Plenary Speakers:
- Nassim Taleb: Non Gaussian probabilities
- Art Thompson: Red Bull Challenge
Here’s what we can expect to hear:
- It seems that there is something about the interaction among component systems that leads to the emergent behavior that characterizes complexity in aerospace systems. CASE 2013 explores this theme.
- As we continue to meet Mike Griffin’s challenge to develop theoretical underpinnings for systems engineering, we will need to do a more disciplined job with respect to scholarly publication and the experimental confirmation of results.
- The Mars Science Laboratory Entry-Descent-and-Landing system is an excellent example of a complex aerospace system that was successfully delivered. The lessons learned from this program have applicability across the broad spectrum of complex aerospace systems.
- There are a few key principles that we can agree on; we need to continue to engage in dialogue and discussion around definitions and theoretical bases for complex system analysis and design. AIAA should take a leading role in developing standards for system engineering along with our partner professional societies.
- Certain kinds of systems obey probability laws that are non-Gaussian, with emergent behavior that is “essentially unpredictable.” For those kinds of system – and complex aerospace systems fall in that category – the usual sorts of program management tools, particularly risk management tools, do not work, and a different approach is required.
- Study of complexity in a wide variety of environments has shown that systems based on “big data” do not behave in expected ways; we need “big theory” to match the demands of these systems.
- In spite of these obstacles, it is still possible to complete exciting and dramatic projects in aerospace, such as the Red Bull Stratos challenge.
13 August, 1330 -1530 hrs
Track 1, Session 1: Model Based Engineering Use in System Development - Case Studies
Session Chair and Moderator: Louisa Guise, Raytheon
The session will begin with a series of invited presentations to set the stage for the discussion on MBE:
- Gregory Roth (USAF Wright-Patterson AFB): CREATE and Air Force Initiative in Model Based Engineering
- Gary Kamsickas and Christopher Forgie (The Boeing Company): A Risk Management Analysis Process: Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Aviation Industry.
- Eelco Scholte (UTC Aerospace Systems): Formal Methods and V&V of Complex Systems
The reminder of the session will be devoted to a panel discussion on Model Based Engineering. The panelists are:
- Gregory Roth (USAF Wright-Patterson AFB)
- Gary Kamsickas (Boeing)
- Christopher Forgie (Boeing)
- Eelco Scholte (UTC Aerospace Systems)
- David Nichols (JPL)
- Bob Erickson (Raytheon)
Track 2, Session 1: Development of Testable Requirements at the SoS/Capability Level
Session Chair and Moderator: Bryan Herdlick, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
Session Co-Chair and Moderator: Eileen Bjorkman, Airforce Flight Test Center, Edwards AFB
A 2010 workshop held by the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) at the direction of the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) identified a number of challenges to the successful T&E of System-of-Systems (SoS) designs, and by extension, complex systems. Among those challenges, the absence of testable requirements at the SoS (i.e., capability) level figured prominently. The challenge of complex system testing has resurfaced regularly in subsequent conferences and journal articles, but with few precedent-setting solutions, and little treatment of "the human system" as a complex constituent in the larger SoS.
This session will introduce an abbreviated list of documented challenges as a foundation for discussion, briefly review some recent contributions to the "body of knowledge", and then engage the panel and audience in a discussion of the prospective solution space.
The objective of this session is to advance thought and practice in the development and testing of complex, system-of-systems based designs. The session may also serve to establish a collaborative foundation for further innovation and solution maturation.
The following panelists will provide their insight and discuss relevant issues with the audience participants:
- Katherine Morse (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory)
- Eileen Bjorkman (Air Force Flight Test Center, Edwards Air Force Base)
- Suzanne Beers (MITRE)
- Frank Serna (Draper Laboratory)
- David Gill (The Boeing Company)
- Stephen Scukanec (Northrop Grumman)
- George Wauer (OSD)
Track 3, Session 1: Program Management / Program Planning
Session Chair and Moderator: Reece Lumsden, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
This session will focus on Integrated Master Plans (IMP) and the associated Integrated Master Schedules (IMS) and will encompass:
- Defining events, providing a product dictionary, listing major program milestones and deliverables, and providing narratives for the key processes used in executing a program
- Including and defining linkages – both internal and external handoffs (receivables / deliverables)
- Identifying and managing risks and associated burn down plans
- Developing and inserting technologies (how and when) into the program (part of risk management)
- Enlisting planners that understand the relevant technologies
- Following the IMP and proactively using the IMS to manage the program.
Specifics to consider include:
- What can we do to ensure a good IMP and IMS is in place, (especially if the program is already underway)?
- How do we capture all the handoffs within a complex aerospace system?
- What can we do to ensure rigorous risk management is being followed?
- What specific things can Managers, Executives, and Leaders do to ensure the IMS is being used as a proactive tool, vs a reactive tool?
Some of the more strategic issues to discuss may include:
- Risk Management
- Technology insertion and its timing/appropriateness
- Program execution
- How IMS/IMP differs for a ‘complex’ program (as opposed to a normal program)
The panelists for this session are:
- Leo Ahearn (Beoing Phantom Works)
- James Johnson (NASA Headquarters)
- Patricia Hartman (Lockheed Martin)
- Gerry Jeffs (APL Logistics)
13 August, 1600–1800 hrs
Track 1, Session 2: Lessons Learned in Complex Systems Development – Chief Engineer Perspectives
Session Chair and Moderator: Laura McGill
, RaytheonPanelists will share lessons learned on a variety of systems and then entertain questions and discussion with the attendees.
- Dave Kusnierkiewicz (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory) – Space Programs
- Mike Sinnett (The Boeing Company) – 787 Dreamliner
- Paul Olechnovich (Raytheon) – Standard Missile
Track 2, Session 2: Cost Optimization and Risk Mitigation through Strategic Early Verification
Session Chair and Moderator: Jim Blohowiak
, The Boeing Company
Session Co-Chair: Alison Lauderbach
, The Boeing Company
The performance, cost, and schedule constraints on bringing complex products to market make it essential to assure the integrity and capability of the design throughout the product development life cycle. This session will focus on moving design verification early in the product test value stream, with the intent of mitigating risk as well as reducing overall test costs. Speakers will address different tactics used to accomplish this goal, such as test readiness criteria, requirements scrutiny, innovative verification planning, and cross-functional representation.
Types of questions to be addressed during the session include:
- How is your team challenging traditional verification and validation methods?
- What collaboration techniques can you use among stakeholders to ensure integration?
- What enablers can your team use to leverage verification and validation methods early in the test value stream?
- Where are you investing to make Integrated Research and Testing roles stronger to help ensure earlier discovery and risk mitigation?
A moderated panel will discuss the merits and concerns associated with moving verification earlier in the system development cycle.
- Steve Holt (Boeing Commercial Airplanes)
- Mostafa Rassaian (Boeing Research and Technology)
- Jeff Rose (L-3 Communications)
- Steve Helland (NASA)
Track 3, Session 2: Supplier Management & Logistics
Session Chair: Jeff Melville
, The Boeing Company
Session Moderator: Lt. General George Muellner
Economic globalization has transformed manufacturing, product distribution, materials management, and our workforce in order to establish a viable, competitive supply chain posture. Hallmarked by a strong wave of outsourcing to lesser developed countries that sustain a low cost, skilled workforce, many industries are now facing rising economic and operating risks previously unrealized that may seriously jeopardize advantages gained by a widely distributed supply chain system. A panel moderated by Lt. General Muellner will discuss these topics. The panelists are:
- Gerry Jeffs (APL Logistics)
- Craig Giffi (Deloitte LLP)
- Beth Anderson (Boeing Commercial Airplanes)
- Mary Simmerman (Lockheed Martin)
This panel will identify and address these supply chain risks with an objective to propose new solutions and means to mitigate these vulnerabilities in the wake of a continuing global recession. Some of these risks include:
- Supply chain disruption
- Intellectual property protection
- Quality control
- Shift in balance of power to suppliers; creation of competitors
- Skill dilution/loss of know-how and ability to innovate
- Ability to develop and retain an indigenous skilled workforce
- An increasing pressure to reduce cost.