the continuing war against climateofascism
Above: An artist's rendering.
Future Western droughts could last an average of 12 years, spanning half of the region and severely reducing Colorado River flows that supply millions of people, according to climate projections from a Boulder scientist.
Eighteen of the world's most powerful computer climate models were used in the study, presented Tuesday by Martin Hoerling, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Hoerling said he was startled by his own findings. But he cautioned that his results are preliminary and have not been published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
"The numbers are pretty striking," he said Tuesday at a drought conference sponsored by the Geological Society of America. "Climate change is moving us in the direction of a perpetual state that is of the Dust Bowl type."
The models forecast a temperature increase of 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2060 in the interior West, largely because of the buildup of heat-trapping gases emitted by fossil-fuel combustion.
But little or no precipitation increase is foreseen in the West. The result: Increased evaporation and drier soils, leading to more severe and frequent droughts, Hoerling said.
How severe? Some droughts could be 25 percent worse than the 1930s Dust Bowl, Hoerling said.
How frequent? On average, half of the interior West will suffer from severe drought each year, he said.
As noted, the results have yet to make the gauntlet. Still, it's worth noting that among the dwindling reasons there is still a "debate" for some in this country over climate change is that future conditions in particular regions aren't always clear cut, the Rockies and the West in general being one of said regions.
One thing is certain, however, and that is the planet will be different, less predictable, and thus exceptionally problematic to say the least. Or as this one-time sinner says on a similar subject, "high-minded debates about theoretical future" actions gets us nowheres...