It looks like both sides of the Red River will be encased in heat as we wrap up July and move into the first week of August.
We often mention “the model” or the “computer guidance” in our weather broadcasts because these weather forecasting programs a offer a helping hand in prediction. The further out in time we venture weather-wise then the more dependent we become on the model output, of course coupled with our experience and the actual weather science too.
When two of the primary models we use agree in detail on a forecast a week away, then this says a lot about the potential they will be right. What’s just as important is the day-to-day continuity of the models, which have both been rock solid. The bottom line is a high confidence forecast for very hot conditions July 28 through the first week of August.
A large high aloft is the primary culprit, but it will have some help down at ground level from southwesterly winds and drying soils.
It's a classic pattern for 100+ heat as a large high pressure system aloft remains overhead.
I anticipate 100+ weather during the period with daily maximum readings varying a few degrees as they tend to do. At this point, I’m not expecting record heat but it may be close some days - the range will be 100 to 107 degrees.
The core of the high is expected to shift westward during the first few days of August and high temperatures may ease a bit. However, temperatures around 100 are still likely until the upper high either moves further away or we get into a more southeasterly flow off of the Gulf- and that could be mid August.
So we're looking at the potential of 10 to 14 consecutive days of 100+ weather.
Fire danger is rapidly getting to critical levels and you are urged to avoid any outdoor burning or other open sources of ignition such as welding outdoors….and s always properly dispose of smoking materials. Please also bear in mind outdoor burning is now illegal in some portions of Texoma.