Tools used in the Drought Outlook included the official CPC long-lead
precipitation outlook for August-October Palmer Drought Index Probability Projections for October
various medium and short-range forecasts and models such as the 6-10
day and 8-14 day forecasts, and the soil moisture tools based on the GFS model and the Constucted Analogues for
The drought forecast for the interior West continues to call for persisting drought since there is little chance that
the hydrologic drought can improve before next winter's snow season. However, warm-season showers can ease the
wildfire threat and boost crop and pasture prospects during the summer to early autumn period. This month's Outlook
shows limited improvement in a swath generally extending east of the Continental Divide across much of the West due to
the forecasts for normal to above-normal rainfall in medium and long-range forecasts. The greatest probabilities for
significant rainfall amounts in both the medium and long range appear to be concentrated over the eastern portions of
the drought area, extending southward from the Dakotas into Kansas, and this area is depicted as improving on the
Outlook. Nevertheless, drought eradication for this area is highly unlikely by October given the duration and
intensity of the ongoing drought. The relatively small drought area in northern Washington is forecast to
persist, although some improvement may be seen by late October due to the onset of the seasonal autumn rains.
In the Southwest, the monsoon began during the second week of July within a week of its usual starting date, and
a fairly normal season appears to be on tap, but with a tendency for below-normal rainfall to the north in the Great
Basin. Accordingly, limited improvement is expected from southern and eastern Arizona into New Mexico and northward
No areas of drought development are depicted this month. There are a few areas of dryness in the South and East, but
these are outnumbered by the areas with abundant to excessive soil moisture from the central states eastward. There
are no indications that sustained dry conditions will develop over any of the areas that are currently dry.
Similarly, there are no indications that the unusual warm and dry pattern will resume over eastern Alaska. Recent
forecasts call for normal rainfall over Alaska's eastern interior during the 6-10 day and 8-14 day period.