Remember sitting in the dark during the rolling blackouts of the California electricity crisis of a decade ago? Better stock up on candles. It could happen again.
The Nuclear Waste Act of 2012 is a new initiative now being circulated for signatures to put it on the November 2012 ballot. It effectively would ban using nuclear power generation in California, meaning it would quickly close down the San Onofre and Diablo Canyon nuclear generating stations. Initiative backers must gather 504,760 valid signatures by April 16.
The main part of the initiative stipulates, in the attorney general's summary, that before there can be further electricity production at these plants, the California Energy Commission is required to find that the federal government "has approved technology for permanent disposal of high-level nuclear waste."
But in 2009 the federal government canceled the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Repository in Nevada. That meant waste had to be on site at the nuclear plants until some other permanent solution is found, if it ever is. Absent "permanent disposal," the plants would have to shut down. Doing so would further shut down California's already fragile economy. An analysis by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office found that, if the initiative passes, "[T]he risk of rolling blackouts would be increased significantly" in Southern California. "Such disruptions to the electricity grid would have negative impacts on the California economy, including loss of economic output, reduced productivity, loss of jobs and reduced purchases of goods and services, leading to reduced household and business income."
With the economy shocked, state tax revenue would decline, making the state's endemic structural budget deficit, currently about $20 billion a year, even worse. And taxpayers could be liable for reimbursing "more than $4 billion" to compensate the utility companies "for some or all of their investment losses resulting from [power plant] closure."
Electric power generation in California would be reduced about 14 percent, Tom Tanton told us; formerly principal policy adviser with the California Energy Commission, he currently is executive director of the American Tradition Institute. "That would drive up prices 15 percent to 20 percent."
Worse, the initiative would become effective just as two other state environmental laws, already passed, would be kicking in: Assembly Bill 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006; and the requirement, signed by Gov. Jerry Brown this year, that 33 percent of electricity generation in California must come from renewable sources, such as solar and wind power, by 2020.
Combined, Mr. Tanton figured that the three laws would increase electricity costs by 50 percent. He pointed out that, already, electricity costs in California are 50 percent above the national average. Of course, the initiative is being advanced in the wake of the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan, resulting in the meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear power station. But the main problem there, Mr. Tanton said, was that the nuclear reactors were flooded by the tsunami, meaning "there was no power to run the plant's cooling system" using emergency generators. California's plants are of a different design that makes such a problem much less likely. American regulation of the plants also is stricter than in Japan, he said. "Generally speaking, the California plants are much safer."
We also should realize that, although some risk exists in any complex system, there's also a major risk to life should the state suffer rolling blackouts. To cite just one example, on unusually hot days the lack of air conditioning would lead to deaths among the elderly and the infirm.
Before it goes any further, registered voters need to pull the plug on this ballot measure.
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