Hadley Centre Decadal Climate Prediction SystemAugust 9, 2007 at 6:44 pm | Posted in Climate change, Climate model, Hadley Centre | 2 Comments
Science 10 August 2007:
Vol. 317. no. 5839, pp. 746 – 747
CLIMATE CHANGE: Humans and Nature Duel Over the Next Decade’s Climate
Richard A. Kerr
Rising greenhouse gases are changing global climate, but during the next few decades natural climate variations will have a say as well, so researchers, including a team reporting on page 796 of this week’s issue of Science, are scrambling to factor them in.
Read the Full Text
(but I cannot, as it’s behind a paywall …)
However, I think ^that^ Science article might be might be the one referred to by BBC News, USA Today, Nature and Guardian (amongst others). They all write about a new 10-year climate model from the Hadley Centre referred to as the Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys), and based on a well established climate model already used by Hadley Centre scientists, for example:
Ten-year climate model unveiled
BBC News, UK
Scientists say they have developed a model to predict how ocean currents, as well as human activities, will affect temperatures over the next decade.
By including short-term natural events, such as El Nino, a UK team says it is able to offer 10-year projections.
Models have previously focused on how the globe will warm over a century.
Writing in Science, Met Office researchers project that at least half of the years between 2009 and 2014 are likely to exceed existing records.
Doug Smith, a climate scientist at the Hadley Centre, explained how the new model differed from existing ones.
“On a 10-year timescale, both natural internal variability and the global warming signal (human induced climate change) are important; whereas looking out to 2100, only the global warming signal will dominate.”
Climate model predicts hot decade USA Today
Model approach to climate prediction Nature.com (subscription)
Global warming: Met Office predicts plateau then record temperatures Guardian Unlimited