In their August update to the 2013 seasonal hurricane forecast, Colorado State University scientists Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray are still calling for an active season — but not quite so active.
The reason, they wrote in their update, is anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic.
The forecasters still expect 18 named storms — about 50 percent more than normal — but predict the development of one less hurricane and one less major hurricane, and generally fewer stronger storms overall. The latter is reflected in their downsizing of accumulated cyclone energy.
Back in June nearly every seasonal forecaster predicted an above-normal season. So far they’ve not been wrong, as the season had produced four named storms, which typically does not occur until the third week of August.
However the season has yet to produce a hurricane.
That’s not abnormal either, as hurricane season doesn’t really begin to ramp up until, well, about now. So let’s see what happens.