As the civil war in Syria intensifies and forecasts of an Israeli strike on Iran mount (yet again), it would be an understatement to say that the Obama administration’s Middle East team is perpetually working overtime. And yet, sandwiched between Syria and Iran brims another potential flashpoint that the United States cannot afford to ignore: Iraq. Conflict in Syria or Iran could “bleed over into Iraq,” warns former National Security Council staffer Douglas Ollivant in a new Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum. Political instability in the Middle East is just one of the drivers that could spark ethno-sectarian violence and a breakdown in constitutional order in Iraq.
There is little the Obama administration can do to affect events on the ground in Iraq, nor is there much enthusiasm in Baghdad for greater U.S. involvement in its internal affairs. American influence in Iraq has hit a nadir since U.S. troops left the country after December 2011. And this year, the U.S. embassy in Baghdad downsized as a result of Iraqi “disinterest.”
Ollivant, however, argues that American hands are not completely tied. First, he contends that the United States should back quiet efforts undertaken by the United Nations to mitigate internal disputes between actors like Baghdad and the Kurdish government in Irbil. At the same time, promoting stronger regional ties with Turkey and the Arab League could also reduce internal ethnic tensions. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the United States should respect the Iraqi electoral process and support a new government if Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki—widely perceived as the “U.S. guy” in Iraq—is unseated.
The United States has invested 4,486 lives and upwards of $800 billion in Iraq, and its assistance eventually helped put the country on a more stable, albeit tenuous, trajectory. As Ollivant notes, violence is at its lowest point since the U.S. invasion in 2003, oil production is on the upswing, and the government is rebuilding critical infrastructure. It is far too soon, however, to consider that investment secure, and the United States should undertake such common-sense steps to promote a more stable Iraq.
Read the full Contingency Planning Memorandum, “Renewed Violence in Iraq.”