Accuracy of Cotton Price Reporting
Ethridge, Don E.
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The Daily Price Estimation System, whose accuracy in measuring market prices and quality premiums and discounts in the Texas-Oklahoma markets is known and documented, was used as the benchmark against which to determine if USDA’s cotton price reporting accuracy has increased over time. The analysis found that during the study period (2000-2005) and the two market reporting regions studied, the Spot Quotations were accurate within an acceptable margin of error for 7 of the 28 cases analyzed (14 quality attributes in each of the two regions), not accurate but improving for 6 cases, inaccurate or deteriorating for 14 cases, and indeterminate for one case. Thus, Spot Quotations were “good or getting better” 46% of the time and “inadequate or deteriorating” 50% of the time.