Tuesday, 11 December 2012
Welsh language decline
Lies, damned lies and statistics is often used to describe the use of numbers to boister weak arguments. But not the census, the figures are based on all our returns. So we get a snapshot of Wales based on the forms filled on census day.
And what does it show? Well to misquote a Dylan song, Wales is achanging. The Wales of Welsh speaking chapel goers is on the way out and is being replaced by an English speaking no religion country.
Why the change you may ask? Well its because more people live in this land called Wales. There’s more of us. 3.1 million and increase of 153,000, this 5% increase is the highest increase since 1951.
Not that we’re enjoying ourselves, well maybe we are, but we’re not breeding more. No, not a bit. Most of the growth, 90 per cent to be exact, was from people coming into the country from other parts of the UK and abroad.
So there are more coming in from outside and in the main they’re English speakers. It’s always dangerous with statistics to explain cause and effect, but the numbers of incomers undoubtedly will not have helped the cause of the Welsh language.
After a slight increase in 2001 the number of people who speak Welsh has fallen in the past 10 years from 20.8% to 19%. In 2001 there were 582,000 now there are 562,000. A hundred year ago in 1911, there were almost a million speaking the language.
The language has even become a minority language in what were once heartland counties for the Welsh, Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion.
Many thought that the growth in Welsh medium education and the migration from Welsh speaking Wales would see an increase in language use in Cardiff and some of the valleys in south east wales. Not so.
Although there was an increase in actual numbers in Cardiff (4,231) Caerffili (1014) and Monmouth (1,092) and even the Vale of Glamorgan (195) because of the increase in the population the proportions speaking Welsh remain the same.
The only county in the whole of Wales to show a modest growth is arguable the most English and wasn’t even part of Wales for years, Monmouth. They saw an 0.6% increase, not much granted, but increase nevertheless.
The Welsh language has seen a decline but nothing on the scale of those in Wales that describe themselves as Christians. There has been a drop of 14% since 2001. Only 1.76 million(58%) describe themselves as such. Almost a third of the population say that they have ‘no religion.' Higher in Wales than any part of England.
The churches face a bleak future indeed and they need to get their act together if they are going to stop the rot.
The statistics should be a wake up call for those concerned about the language. They should be asking serious questions about the prioriites. Have they been to concerned about token issues and not concerned about measures that will really make a difference.
Why are kids that go to Welsh language schools so reluctant to speak the language with their peers? Why is the language not seen as hip and pupils don’t see it as cool to speak it socially? Have activists been to concerned about status and too little concerned about daily use of the language? How many people really look at the minutes of the Assembly or Councils in any language? Would the money spent on these, not be put to better use?
Our broadcasters should take a long hard look and ask why they don’t seem to appeal to our young people.
The census is a wakeup call to both civil and religious Wales. More of the same just won’t do.
More on the other statistics in tomorrows blog.