For the final part in our question and answer series with the IFS on a range of questions about their views on government policy it is the turn of VAT. The impact of increasing VAT is an issue on which I’ve changed my mind. I used to think that increasing VAT was a bad idea because it would be a regressive tax change. But when the issue shot up the political agenda earlier this year, it was the IFS’s reasoning that made me doubt that. Here is the current version of that reasoning (which of course is subject to the same questions over data accuracy as raised earlier in the series):
Do you believe increasing VAT is progressive or regressive (and why)?
We believe that increasing the standard VAT rate in the current system is mildly progressive when examined on a lifetime basis. The intuition for this is that, over a lifetime, poorer households spend a higher proportion of their (lifetime) income on goods that are zero or reduced rated in the current VAT system, such as food, children’s clothes and domestic fuel and power, and hence a lower proportion of their lifetime income on items that are subject to the standard VAT rate.
The common perception that VAT is regressive largely comes from noting that households with low current income often spend a lot – and therefore see a big cash rise in their living costs – relative to their income. But as explained in the previous answers, this is a weakness of looking at a snapshot of income: as the ONS notes, “referring to income distribution to identify the incidence of indirect taxes on households with low income can be misleading”. In general, over a lifetime people’s expenditure must match their income (the main difference being inheritances), so if someone is spending (and therefore losing) a lot relative to their income at the moment – either borrowing or drawing on past savings – they must be spending (and therefore losing) little relative to their incomes at other times. Looking over the lifetime as a whole, what matters is whether the lifetime-rich or the lifetime-poor see a larger share of their lifetime resources taken in VAT, and on that basis VAT is progressive because necessities (consumed disproportionately by the lifetime-poor) are typically subject to zero or reduced rates of VAT.
For the previous questions and answers in this series see our Institute for Fiscal Studies page. Many thanks to Mike Brewer and the IFS for supplying detailed answers to all the questions.