There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and this evening across portions of eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. There will be a few showers and thunderstorms this morning but these are not expected to be severe. It will then become partly cloudy across the area for much of this afternoon allowing temperatures over much of eastern South Dakota to rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Late this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of eastern South Dakota. These thunderstorms will move east during the evening into southwestern Minnesota. The primary threat from these storms will be large hail. A few storms could have hail the size of baseballs during the late afternoon and early evening. There is also a risk of tornadoes in the evening - especially along and east of interstate 29. The storms may form into a line toward sunset with the risk of very large hail decreasing but the risk of damaging winds increasing. The threat for severe weather is expected to end by midnight.
The best chance for thunderstorm development, and severe thunderstorms, at this time looks to be along and north of Highway 14 - across northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. The chance for thunderstorms decreases farther to the south with a very low chance for thunderstorms near the Missouri River and into west central Iowa.
If storms are able to develop later this afternoon and evening, they will likely become severe anywhere across the area. As noted above very large hail is the primary threat but there could also be tornadoes, especially as storms move into southwest Minnesota. If you are planning activities later this afternoon and evening, be aware of the latest weather conditions via NOAA Weather Radio or local media. If warnings are issued, be prepared to take shelter to protect yourself and those around you.
The latest Hazardous Weather Outlook from the National Weather Service in Sioux Falls is here.
The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center can be found by clicking on the image below.