Effects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza
Limitations and effects of modeling effects of border control on pandemic influenza, Australia
|Reproduction number (R0) and infectivity function for pandemic influenza are unknown.
||Larger R0 and a shorter average time between infections would reduce effectiveness of restrictions.
|Further importations not considered.
||Frequent importations would greatly reduce benefits of internal restrictions for cities with international airports or ports.
|Other control measures (pharmaceutical and social distancing) are not considered.
||Reductions in transmission would increase effectiveness of restrictions.
|Heterogeneous mixing and travel patterns are not considered.
||Heterogeneity could increase or reduce delays in epidemic spread. For example, high transmission among infrequent travelers (e.g., the elderly, children) would make restrictions more effective.
|Travel rates and restrictions are based on air-travel volumes alone.
||Restrictions would prevent no more than 80% of travel if non–air travel remains unrestricted, which would considerably reduce effect of restrictions.
|Seasonal variation in travel and transmissibility are not considered.
||Could lead to less or more effective restrictions if arrival of pandemic is in winter/summer.