This article notes that Herman Cain is doing quite well in the polls… yet lagging behind in prediction markets. Aggregated polls place Cain near the front of the race, usually a little behind Romney, but prediction markets watching the race show considerably more reservations about his chances. The graph below shows the results from the PredictWise market – certainly a marked difference from the polls.
Why are the two so different? Well, the article pins the blame on two major factors: Uncertainty about Cain’s economic plans – which have received early criticism – and the usual prime factor in politics, money. Specifically, fundraising efforts have yielded significantly more money for Perry and Romney than Cain. Early polling popularity clearly doesn’t convince the prediction markets nearly as strongly as losing the money primary. While polls take a snapshot of how the situation looks presently, the prediction markets are eyeballing the end result of all the time between now and the election, and they don’t seem to like what they see for Cain’s nomination chances.