Congressional seats: ready to go Red with slight change in Hispanic voting
The Georgetown [University]Public Policy Review carefully analyzed each Congressional district for the potential of gains by Republicans if the percentage of Hispanic voting Republicans went up. It concluded that there are many more competitive races in heavily Hispanic areas for Democrats to lose than to gain. A shift of Hispanics from Dem to Rep would produce a lot more Rep wins than a shift of the same percentage from Rep to Dem would create more Dem wins.
“There are two different lenses through which to consider the Republican perspective. First, most incumbent Republicans will not have a strong incentive to vote for an immigration bill containing a path to citizenship if a significant Hispanic population appears to be lacking in their districts. In fact, many conservatives may be far more concerned about primary challengers than Hispanic backlash.
On the other hand, the Republican Party as a whole has a tremendous opportunity to turn districts in their favor. If they can redefine themselves to the Hispanic population, starting with comprehensive immigration reform, they will be doing more than pouring water on the DCCC’s gunpowder—they will be stealing it for themselves.”