The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has placed moderate and high risk areas for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over much of the Midwest and the Great Lakes for Sunday, and extending eastward across New York and New England Sunday night.
The Storm Prediction Center states that besides thunderstorms with damaging winds, conditions are also favorable for a tornado outbreak (shown in the map on the right) with multiple significant tornadoes and widespread damaging winds.
While the probability percentages may seem small, they are significant. For example, a forecast for a 10% chance of a tornado really means that there is a 1 in 10 chance that a tornado will be within 25 miles of any given place in the shaded area.
If normally, the chances of a tornado near a given area are say one in a hundred, then a 10% forecast suggests that the odds of a significant tornado increase by ten-fold. Today, the chances are forecast to be as high as 30% over many mid-western states.
The thunderstorms are expected to organize into a lines (squall lines) and track eastward to the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts Sunday night and Monday morning.
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