Risk Dilemmas: Forced Choices and Survival
This book identifies the pitfalls of applying precautionary strategies to high-stakes risks that have already become entrenched. Precaution must be applied on a precautionary basis, considering alternative paths to progress that maintain natural risk levels. This requires a radical rethinking of the way we define and achieve progress.
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Finding Alternatives to Risk
All or Nothing
Precaution in Context
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achieve ALARP alternatives assessment applied approach to risk avoiding risk backcasting balance becomes benefits burden of proof catastrophe problem catastrophic risk choice complex context cost/benefit analysis danger dealing with high-stakes decision criteria decision matrix decision theory decision tree decision-making degree disaster disutility doom economic effects entail event trees example existence expected value exposure face fact fatalism fatalist Figure fuzzy fuzzy sets goals high-stakes decision high-stakes domain high-stakes risk human hysteresis identify ility impact individual knowledge imperfection least level of risk mechanistic minimax monetary natural risk notion once optimism outcomes possibility post-fact precaution precautionary approach precautionary dilemmas prioritization probabilistic risk assess probability progress radical reasonable reduce result risk assessment risk avoidance risk dilemmas risk levels risk management risk thresholds risk-free risky safety sense simply social society solutions stakes risk statistical domain suggest survival tion tionary tradeoffs type II error ultimately ultra-fuzzy valuation wider