Water and Population:
Water may be the resource that defines the limits of sustainable development. It has no
substitute, and the balance between humanity's demands and the quantity available is
Only about 2.5 per cent of all water on the planet is fresh water\u2014essential for most
human purposes\u2014and only about 0.5 per cent is accessible groundwater or surface water.
Rainfall quantities vary greatly around the world. Portions of Northern Africa and
Western Asia receive very small amounts of rain.
Income is related to the availability of water between and within nations. The more
developed regions have on average substantially higher rainfall than those less and least
developed. Additionally, richer countries can better afford the investments needed to
develop reservoirs, dams and other technologies to capture fresh water run-off and
The World population is the total number of humans on Earth at a given time. In the year
1950 the world population was approximately 2.52 billion. In February 2008, the world's
population is believed to have reached over 6.70 billion In line with population
projections, this figure continues to grow at rates that were unprecedented before the 20th
century, although the rate of increase has almost halved since its peak, which was reached
in 1963, of 2.2 percent per year. The world's population, on its current growth trajectory,
is expected to reach nearly 9 billion by the year 2050.
Global population has tripled over the past 70 years and water use has grown six-fold as
the result of industrial development and increased use of irrigation. More recently, per
capita use of water has leveled off, so total water consumption is growing at about the
same pace as population. Satisfying the water needs of 77 million additional people each
year has been estimated as requiring an amount roughly equal to the flow of the Rhine.
But the amount of available fresh water has not changed.
Worldwide, 54 per cent of the annual available fresh water is being used. If consumption
per person remains steady, by 2025 we could be using 70 per cent of the total because of
population growth alone. If per capita consumption everywhere reached the level of more
developed countries we could be using 90 per cent of the available water by 2025.
Such extrapolations assume no change in the efficiency of water use. It has been
estimated, however, that relatively low-cost technologies could double agricultural
productivity per unit of available water. In the past 50 years, industrialized countries have
significantly increased efficiencies in industrial and agricultural water use. Many of the
same technologies\u2014for example, drip irrigation instead of flood irrigation\u2014are
increasingly available in developing countries, but cost and cultural issues (like
educational outreach to facilitate behaviour change) must be addressed.
PAKISTAN is already in a state of water crisis\u2014 particularly in southern Punjab, Sindh and its capital Karachi. It is high time that the people are made fully aware of the grave implications of the water disaster, likely to occur in a decade or two.
Such a disaster would threaten not only the environmental existence of the country but the very security of lives of those who live in these areas. The crying need of the hour is to galvanize people on the issue.
These conclusions are based on the findings of a long- term research programme to
improve the empirical basis of water availability in 118 countries of the world, by the
International Water Management Institute (IWMI). The first abstract was published in
The forecast then made, proved to be correct and these days scarcity of water is almost a
national crisis. At present the worst sufferers are southern Punjab, Sindh and its capital
Karachi. The NWFP will also face serious water problem, in case, India succeeds in
building a dam on Kabul River upstream. There has been almost 50 per cent reduction in
agricultural production in Sindh. Its water bodies are drying up.
Sea intrusion is accelerating; the sea has intruded almost 40 kilometer in Badin district.
The mangroves in the whole Indus delta are fast vanishing. The water supply problem in
Karachi is so acute that many areas go dry even for a week and after great hue and cry,
the people get water in trickles. For Karachites, water has become a rare and expensive
commodity. For instance a middle class family with a households of five persons spends
every month Rs. 3,000 to 4000 on tankers, in addition Rs9000 are paid to the Water
Board per annum.
The IWMI researchers concluded in 1998 that Pakistan was a water scarce country in the
same category as Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East and North African countries and that the
scarcity of water would accentuate in the near future. They had defined \u2018water scarcity\u2019
either in term of the existing and potential supply of water or in terms of the present and
future demands or needs of water or both. In pioneering studies on water scarcity, the
IWMI researchers took a supply side approach by ranking countries according to per-
capita amount of annual water resources (AWR).
The study took into account the present and future demands or need for water by
simulating the demand for water in relation to the supply of water over the period 1990 to
2025. In the water balance analysis for Pakistan the estimates of water supply and
demand were made. Pakistan\u2019s population, even conservatively estimated is expected to
be around 280 million in 2025 the AWR, remaining constant, water availability on a per
capita basis will be substantially reduced. The estimates were adjusted to take explicit
account of return flow and water recycling whose importance is often neglected in studies
of water scarcity.
The study warned that the water scarcity would be a major constrain on food production,
human health and environmental quality many of the countries in this category, including
Pakistan, will have to divert water from irrigation to supply their domestic and industrial
needs and will need to import more food. However the study concluded that around 50
per cent of the increase in demand for water by the year 2025 can be met by increasing
the effectiveness of irrigation. While some of the remaining water development needs can
be met by small dams and conjunctive use of aquifers. In some cases medium and large
dams may also be needed. The productivity of irrigation water can be increased in four
ways: (i) increasing the productivity per unit of transpiration; (ii) reducing flows of
usable water to sinks and converting this into productive use; (iii) controlling salinity and
pollution and (iv) reallocating water from lower valued to higher valued crop.
In his whirlwind tour of the country and particularly in Sindh in connection with
referendum, President Musharraf has, time and again, touched upon the issue of water
crisis. In his Sukkur speech he emphasized that he would not allow Sindh to become
barren and waste land. The process of desertification in Sindh would be prevented. It is in
this context, an action plan is suggested on a national basis as well s for Sindh and
Karachi for implementation as soon as possible.
The Pakistani government is currently combating numerous political, economic, and
social problems\u2014conflicts with India over Kashmir, refugees from Afghanistan, high
population growth, and severe poverty problems. While not necessarily front-page news,
water scarcity is growing in Pakistan. Though heavily dependent on one river system, the
Indus River, Pakistan has not always suffered from water scarcity. During the country\u2019s
infancy, water availability was quite high at 5,600 cubic meters per person. This
abundance of five decades ago plummeted to just 1,000 cubic meters water availability
per person today. The water crisis in Pakistan is of particular concern, according to Naser
Faruqi, because water plays an integral role in the country\u2019s economy\u2014ninety percent of
the agricultural output, representing one-quarter of the GDP, is reliant upon irrigation
water while almost half of Pakistan\u2019s energy is hydroelectric. Additionally, Pakistan\u2019s
water crisis has several serious health, social, and political implications.
Health implications: The serious water shortages in Pakistan have had a great impact on
the health of the general population. Today 12 percent of Pakistanis have no access to
improved water sources while 39 percent are without sanitation facilities. Dr. Faruqi
noted that these shortcomings force people to consume polluted drinking water, which
will increase the incidence of waterborne diseases. More pressing, perhaps, is the lack of
water for irrigation purposes. Grain production is expected to fall short 11 million tons by
2010 and nearly 16 million tons by 2020. If the economy continues to falter, importing
food to make up for agricultural shortfalls will not be an option\u2014famine-like conditions
may very well become a harsh reality.
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