Last week we analyzed young voters in the swing states and found that even if there wasn't a big increase in turnout from the under 30 crowd this year, there would still be a big shift toward the Democrats because of changing preferences within that demographic.
I am much more confident that there will be a large increase in black turnout than I am that there will be a large increase in youth turnout, but the same truism applies to black voters: there will be a major movement toward the Democrats with them whether there's a large increase in turnout or not.
Take North Carolina as the biggest example. The 2004 exit poll showed John Kerry winning black voters in the state 85-15. A private poll we conducted statewide over the last few days showed Barack Obama winning them 95-5. That may not sound like a huge difference, but look at it this way. Kerry won them by 70. Obama's winning them by 90. Let's conservatively put black turnout at 20%. A 20% improvement with 20% of the population is worth an extra four points for Obama statewide. That's a huge deal.
It's a similar story in a couple other states that look like they'll be incredibly close. In our most recent Florida poll blacks who said they voted in 2004 went 87-13 for Kerry. Now they're 91-8 for Obama. That nine point increase with 13% of the likely voting population is worth a little more than a point statewide. Could make the difference in an incredibly tight race.
The same holds true in Indiana. Kerry won 83-17 with the African Americans we surveyed who voted last time. Obama leads 89-11. A 12 point shift with roughly 10% of the population is worth a little more than a point as well. Could swing it.
Blacks have certainly always been supportive of the Democratic Party, but not to the extent that they are this year. That's why analysis suggesting that Obama won't get that big a boost from black voters because Democrats always get a big boost from black voters is off the mark. Even small shifts could make a big difference in some of the closest states.