The Predictive Content of Earnings Forecasts and Dividends
This paper compares the properties of dividend announcements and management earnings forecasts as predictors of earnings and firm value. First, the two predictors are compared on the basis of their ability to predict earnings. Then the information they convey about firm value is assessed by comparison of the performance of investment strategies based on values of the two predictors. Finally, the effects of dividend announcements on stock prices are considered.
Source: Journal of Finance
Penman, Stephen. "The Predictive Content of Earnings Forecasts and Dividends." Journal of Finance 38, no. 4 (September 1983): 1181-1199.