Our constructive, nation- building media are promoting Reits as “safe” investments, so maybe it’s time to read or reread “Initially, I wanted to title this post “The Disastrous Singapore REITs Model” but decided otherwise”, written late last year?
It analyses what went wrong in the S-Reit sector in the period up to massive rights issues in 2009.
In a report issued last Thurday, CIMB identified K-Reit Asia, Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT), Ascott Residence Trust (ART) and Suntec Reit as those likely to engage in equity fundraising in the near future. “The first signs of more cash calls to come have surface.”
The Reit industry is stronger than it was three years ago, CIMB said. Across the sector, the proportion of short-term debt to total debt stood at 8% in September, much lower than the 38% in June 2008. With reduced pressure from short term liabilities, Reits are less likely to make cash calls, even if the industry’s average gearing did climb to 36% (from 34% in 2008). But some Reits -(especially those in the office sector) could be vulnerable to asset devaluation as a downturn looms. Lower property values push up gearing ratios.
According to CIMB K-Reit, ART and Suntec Reit had gearings of 42%, 41% and% respectively at end-Sept, higher than the average of 36%.
The risk of a cash call is greatest for K-Reit. Its aggregate leverage remains high despite a massive rights issue (17 for 20) now underway to fund the purchase of Ocean Financial Centre from parent Keppel Land, and 20% of its debt is due for refinancing next year.
ART not only has high leverage but its European assets could see a devaluation, raising its leverage- a vicious cycle. But if it divests Somerset Grand Cairnhill, which has provisional approval for redevelopment into a residential and hotel project, a near-term cash call could be avoided.
Suntec Reit may not need a cash call until it is ready to acquire Phase 2 of Marina Bay Financial Centre and its capital expenditure needs could be partly met by proceeds from selling Chijmes.
FCOT is a potential candidate for a rights issue because of its relatively high leverage of 37% and low interest coverage ratio. Also, all of its debt is maturing next year. But it could divest KeyPoint. Given F&N as its “big brother”, it could refinance its debt at lower interest rates.
But CIMB believes that Reits are still safe, maintaining its ‘overweight’ call on the sector.