MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 19th April 2001
Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for May to July 2001
Warmer days favoured in east and south
The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook shows an increased likelihood for a warmer than average season across much of eastern and southern Australia. In NSW, southern Queensland, Victoria, Tasmania and S. A., the chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures for the May to July period are about 60 to 70%, nearing 75% in parts of Victoria (see first map below).
This means that in years with climate patterns like the current, about 6 or 7 out of every 10 are warmer than the long-term May-July median, whilst about 3 or 4 out of 10 are cooler. In addition, the outlook skill is moderately high in Victoria, Tasmania and southeast S. A. for this particular season.
In other areas, the outlook chances are close to the baseline level of 50%.
The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures points to warmer than average nights in Queensland, northern NSW and southern W. A. The probabilities in these areas are mostly in the 60 to 75% range (see second map below), and the skill is moderate to high. Conversely, cooler than average nights are more likely in parts of the Kimberley in W. A. and adjacent regions of western N. T.
For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:
Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th MAY 2001.