In terms of landfalling hurricanes, this seems to be what’s happening. It’s been over 7 years and 10 months since a major hurricane (category 3+) hit the United States. There has only been one barely a hurricane strike since 2008. Superstorm Sandy was not a hurricane at time of landfall. Hurricanes and tropical systems seem to be staying out at sea more often. Could it be a result of a climate that is in the midst of a mostly natural warm period? Sure. But, I suspect this “report” is simply a CYA one designed to protect the Climatologists religion
(Guardian) A recurrence of Superstorm Sandy – which barrelled head-on into the Atlantic coast, swamping New York City and large parts of New Jersey – is less likely under climate change, new research suggests.
Scientists expect stronger hurricanes under climate change, and possibly even more frequent storms – especially those at category 3 and higher. But New York City and much of the seaboard will be at lower risk of taking a direct hit, the study published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences said.
Instead, climate change will make it even less likely future storms will follow Sandy’s devastating track. The killer storm made a sharp left turn to slam straight into the Atlantic coast. The odds of a storm like Sandy were already extremely remote – a once in 700 year event – when it hit in October 2012. But it was that trajectory that made Sandy so devastating.
Essentially, what they’re saying is “we don’t know why the humongous 2005 storm year hasn’t become the new norm, why tropical systems are hitting the east coast with less frequency, and why there aren’t more major storms, but, we need the money train to keep a rollin’, so here’s a study”.
The researchers used climate models, based on a tripling of greenhouse gas emissions by 2100, to study whether future atmospheric conditions be more or less likely to blow a storm like Sandy westwards into the Atlantic coast.
Ah. computer models. Which, as you remember, dear reader, fail to even predict what happened in the past. As it stands, hurricane predictions cannot even predict what will happen just a few days out with certainty. But, don’t worry, they know what will happen 90 years from now. When CO2 levels are 1200ppm. Right. Sure thing. But, if true, doesn’t this mean “climate change” is a good thing? Having lived through many tropical systems here in North Carolina, I’d say so.