According to a new Quinnipiac poll, if the 2014 election were held today, Democrats would retake the House of Representatives with a 5 seat majority.
[If] the election were held today 43 percent of the electorate would support a Democratic U.S. House candidate, as opposed to just 35 percent who would back a Republican. That 8 point lead for Democrats is significantly more than the GOP’s margin of victory during the 2010 Republican wave election (6.6 percent) and even more that the Democratic margin of victory during the 2006 wave (7.9 percent) — when Democrats were bolstered by both an unpopular Republican president and a failing war in Iraq. And yet, if Democrats succeed in maintaining this substantial lead through next year’s congressional election, they will likely emerge with a tiny majority of just 5 seats.
It may seem contradictory to make a projection of a “landslide” victory that would result in only a 5 seat majority, but the devil is of course in the details.
This unprecedented victory is would what be required to break the stranglehold Republicans have on their majority as a result of gerrymandering. And what would have afforded you a healthy majority in the past will now deliver only a slight margin of victory.
We shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves because the 2014 election is still over a year away, but we can still be encouraged. Be encouraged and turn up the heat on congressional Republicans.