The tendency of the one to speak up and the other to be silent starts off a spiraling process which increasingly establishes one opinion as the dominant one. Over time, these changing perceptions establish one opinion as predominant one and they change from the liquid state to a solid norm.
—The Spiral of Silence, Wikipedia
Each election is the same; each and every election is different.
People of “good math and statistics” are simply trying to gander, gauge, and guess an intent of voters while a second set seeks non-math certitude.
Cut the psephological Nate Silvers of the world some major Gaussian slack. They took the courses you couldn’t cut.
The stat crew is getting drowned by the certitude of the second-rate. Call it the spiral of certitude. Discuss.