|SAnother factor has entered the market that may
affect future imports – changing product
specifications. How might
changing gasoline specifications in the United States affect the availability
of imports from other regions?
|SSpecification changes raise the possibility of
a shift of import source regions, as some areas are possibly eliminated by
their inability to produce our new products.
We could even see a drop in total import levels.
|SFor example, U.S. sulfur constraints from Tier
2 gasoline requirements are expected to reduce the number of suppliers in the
near term, because the United States is moving towards low sulfur product
before many other regions do so.
|- Europe is
relatively close to U.S. standards, and its exports to the United States may
not be limited by sulfur. In fact,
with its tax incentive programs, gasoline being sold in some European
countries today has lower sulfur content than U.S. requirements.
|- South America
generally is producing gasoline with higher sulfur levels than in the United
States, and that is not expected to change soon.
|- Asia is
moving to lower sulfur levels in some countries, but still has higher sulfur
specifications in many regions.
|SRegional specification changes, along with
knowledge of the origin of our imports can give us a clue as to how the U.S.
specifications may be affecting imports this year and in the future.