The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across northern Australia is a result of
continuing higher than average temperatures over much of the tropical Pacific Ocean,
and also in parts of the tropical and sub-tropical Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean
has been warming strongly in recent months and this is the dominant influence
on the outlook.
Averaged over August to October, the chances are mainly between 60 and 75% for above-normal
maximum temperatures over Queensland and the NT, with 75 to 85% chances in southern Queensland
So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to eight August to
October periods out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average over
Queensland and the NT, with about two to four out of ten being cooler.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian
Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During August to October, history shows this
effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately to highly consistent across
the southern two-thirds of Queensland and the southern half of the NT, but only
weakly consistent in the northern parts of each (see background information).
Average seasonal minimum temperatures are also favoured to be warmer than normal across
most of northern Australia (see map). The chances of increased overnight warmth (averaged
over the coming three months) are between 60 and 75% over most of Queensland and the NT,
increasing to near 80% in southern Queensland. The probabilities are
between 45 and 55% over Cape York Peninsula and between 50 and 60% over the NT's Top End.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures over August
to October to be moderately consistent over much of Queensland and parts of the east
and north of the NT. Elsewhere in the NT the effect is only weakly or very weakly consistent.