4 Future Plagues
Smallpox (bioterrorism)Agent: Variola virus
Fatality rate: Historically, 30% of those infected Variola major have died
Smallpox is a deadly and contagious viral infection that’s spread through droplets from the mouths of infected individuals. In December 1979, smallpox was declared officially eradicated from the world; this news was the result of a massive global effort in vaccination. Smallpox could only be eradicated because the virus survives solely in humans. Thus, if there are no new cases, there is no virus. However, despite eradication, stocks of the virus are still held in labs in the U.S. and in Russia, which raises the potential that the virus will be manipulated as an agent of bioterrorism. Since the smallpox eradication, the level of immunity in the human population is unknown. If smallpox were re-released through an act of terrorism, the disease could rapidly spread across the globe, meaning that there forever remains the potential of smallpox or other bioterrorism agent, such as anthrax, becoming a future plague.
SARS… 2Agent: Unknown
Potential kill count: Unknown
When Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) struck in 2002, the world shifted into a global panic. Despite the fact that the disease was not all that deadly — with 8,096 known infected cases and only 774 deaths — SARS brought a frightening reality to the forefront: That a new and unknown disease could emerge and spread around the world in a mere matter of days. In order to achieve such immediate and global impact, new infectious agents like SARS usually must satisfy several criteria. Firstly, they must spread easily and from human to human (thus making the airborne route of transmission most likely), and secondly, they must have a low case-fatality rate (if everyone dies, there will be no one around to transmit the disease). SARS fit this bill, and it is quite probable that yet unknown infectious agents of the future will have similar characteristics if the potential for a future plague is to exist.
the future is friendlyIt’s easy to constantly live in fear, to never leave the house for fear of infection or other horrible outcomes. But if one can find some solace in looking to the future, it’s that humankind has learned from the past and together we are much more ready to deal with pandemics than ever before. Although a future plague may wipe out millions of lives, life will go on — or at least that’s the hope.