Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model
Trade among individuals occurs either because tastes (risk aversion) differ, endowments differ, or beliefs differ. Utilising the concept of "adaptively rational equilibrium" and a recent framework of Brock and Hommes (1977, 1997) this paper incorporates risk and learning schemes into a simple discounted present value asset price model with heterogeneous beliefs. Agents have different risk aversion coefficients and adapt their beliefs (about future returns) over time by choosing from different predictors or expectations functions, based upon their past performance as measured by realized profits. By using both bifurcation theory and numerical analysis, it is found that the dynamics of asset pricing is affected by the relative risk attitudes of different types of investors. It is also found that the external noise and learning schemes can significantly affect the dynamics. Compared with the findings of Brock and Hommes (1998) on the dynamics caused by change of the intensity of choice to switch predictors, it is found that many of their insights are robust to the generalizations considered: however, the resulting dynamical behavior is considerably enriched and exhibits some significant differences. Copyright 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Volume (Year): 19 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100248|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988.
"Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep,"
m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Kyle, Albert & Campbell, John, 1993.
"Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour,"
3208217, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, John Y & Kyle, Albert S, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34, January.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Kyle, A.S., 1988. "Smart Money, Noise Trading And Stock Price Behavior," Papers 95, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1988. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behavior," NBER Technical Working Papers 0071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Reiner Franke & Tim Nesemann, 1999. "Two destabilizing strategies may be jointly stabilizing," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 1-18, February.
- Franke, Reiner & Sethi, Rajiv, 1998. "Cautious trend-seeking and complex asset price dynamics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 61-79, March.
- Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
- Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March.
- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988.
"Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sanford Grossman, 1989. "The Informational Role of Prices," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572141, June.
- Iori, Giulia, 2002.
"A microsimulation of traders activity in the stock market: the role of heterogeneity, agents' interactions and trade frictions,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-285, October.
- Giulia Iori, 2000. "A microsimulation of traders activity in the stock market: the role of heterogeneity, agents' interactions and trade frictions," Finance 0004007, EconWPA.
- Giulia Iori, 1999. "A microsimulation of traders activity in the stock market: the role of heterogeneity, agents' interactions and trade frictions," Finance 9905005, EconWPA.
- Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- repec:att:wimass:9706 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:19:y:2002:i:1:p:95-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.