My wife will testify that I’m a contrarian by nature. It’s one of the many aspects about me that drives her insane and irritates others.
But I don’t do it intentionally. I’m just trained to look at every aspects of a situation, and taught to think outside the box. That allows me to project what could, or will happen in certain situations better than most. It’s been extremely beneficial in sports because you can usually determine what will happen by following the money.
Here’s the truth: My contrarian nature came into play during my first mock of the NFL’s 2011 draft. Just about every mock draft I’ve seen has the Miami Dolphins selecting Alabama’s Mark Ingram with the No. 15 pick, but I decided to go another direction (who wants to be like everyone else, certainly not me).
It’s easy to understand why most mock drafts have Ingram going to the Dolphins. Ingram is the top back in the 2011 draft class, but the Heisman Trophy winner isn’t perceived as one of this draft’s elite talents so he’ll likely be on the board during the teens.
Considering Lex Hilliard is presently penciled in as the Dolphins’ starting tailback it’s obvious this team needs to add a top shelf back. However, in this instance 2 + 2 doesn’t necessarily equal 4.
The free agent market will likely be flooded with talented but somewhat aged tailbacks – DeAngelo Williams, Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain, Michael Bush, Clinton Portis, Darren Sproles, Kevin Smith, Mike Tolbert, Ronnie Williams and Ricky Williams, Ahmad Bradshaw, Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, Jerome Harrison - when a CBA deal gets done, and that means those teams which don’t draft one early will probably get the pick of the liter of what’s available.
And those player will probably have to accept their deals at a discounted rate because of the laws of supply and demand.
Plus, there are tons of talent tailbacks available in the later rounds of the 2011 draft, and considering the Dolphins prefer a double-down approach, and will use a two tailback tandem in the future, it’s probably a safer guess they’ll select two tailbacks in 2011. That’s the same approach they used in 2008 when this regime drafted Jalen Parmele and Hilliard in the later rounds.
That’s why I’m speculating that the Dolphins would prefer to use the No. 15 pick to address another glaring need, then follow up in the later rounds by selected a tailback like Oklahoma State’s Kendall Hunter or Oregon State’s Jacquizz Rodgers in the third round, and follow that up by drafting a prospect like Louisville’s Bilal Powell or UM’s Damien Berry in the later rounds.
That is why I projected that the Dolphins would draft Maryland receiver Torrey Smith in the first round on these conditions: A. If the quarterback they want isn’t there; B. If they can’t trade down, picking up a second-round pick like this regime did last years when they moved down to draft Jared Odrick and acquired the second-round pick that turned into Koa Misi.
I’m not sure Smith is worth the No. 15 pick, but he does have the size this regime likes, and the elite speed they need to serve as a stretch the field receiver. Smith also would immediately fill two major needs because he can serve as the team’s kickoff and punt returner.
So, how do you feel about my first version of a mock draft, and what would your approach to finding a new tailback be?