With the economy in the crapper? There was an election 18 months after Bush Sr's victorious triumph over Iraq, and the economy wasn't as bad then as it is now, nor was it bad as long as it has been bad now. Growing positive economy = Bush reelection. SOS we've had for the past 2 years (or almost 4 years of crap) = Bush loses. The American people don't give a rat's ass about foreign affairs when they're unemployed or (possibly worse) fearing they will shortly become unemployed. Once you're out of a job, stress can actually decrease.