Thirty-one months since the fall of Zine Abdine Ben Ali, how far has Tunisia progressed in the transition to democracy? The noise of the daily battles and aberrant acts of violence may obscure the country’s true political trajectory and generate discouragement about Tunisia’s future. However, some distance may provide a better perspective, revealing a surprisingly positive and encouraging trend line. In this Brief, Prof. Eva Bellin presents the six most salient factors shaping Tunisia's democratic trajectory. She then presents the result of these "drivers" by providing a "net assessment" of Tunisia's progress thus far. Prof. Bellin concludes by pointing out the challenges still facing the country's march toward democracy and the factors which are likely to affect this march in the years ahead.