The Turnout Mystery (2012 Election): How did Barack Obama regain the presidency with such low voter participation?
We have just come off an election with surprisingly low voter turnout. Turnout fell more or less steadily from 1960 until 1996, when slightly less than half of the voting-age population went to the polls. But then it ticked up: 51 percent in 2000, 54 percent in 2004, and 58 percent in 2008. In 2012 these gains largely vanished. Turnout fell to 53 percent.
The decline in turnout from 2008 to 2012 is one of the most puzzling features of November’s election. It is unclear not only why turnout dropped, but also how Obama managed to win in spite of it. For several reasons, it seemed that a big decline in turnout would have harmed his reelection bid.
First, get-out-the-vote efforts, lauded as the backbone of Obama’s 2008 victory, were just as intense in 2012. The decade-long rise in turnout is often attributed to improvements in get-out-the-vote efforts, but last year’s decline ought to raise doubts about whether these activities can sustain elevated levels of participation.