Does not knowing where you'd take shelter in the event
of a single, low-yield (0.1-10 kilotons) nuclear
detonation in a major urban area keep you awake at night? We
But don't worry, mathematician Michael B Dillon has
drafted a comprehensive guide on where and when you should take shelter
as the nuclear fallout slowly poisons your body.
According to Dillon, 10,000 to 100,000 lives could be
saved from fatal exposure to fallout radiation if adequate shelter
were sought immediately following the blast. Adequate shelter
includes buildings that are constructed from heavyweight materials
and contain basements.
For example, if you initially take cover in a poor
quality shelter but are aware of adequate shelter that is no more
than 15 minutes away, you should stay put for, at most, 30 minutes
after detonation before moving on. However, if adequate shelter is
available nearby (within five minutes), then you should immediately
proceed to the better shelter.
Governmental advice has always been to seek shelter,
with US federal guidance stating that "the best initial action
immediately following a nuclear explosion is to take shelter in the
nearest and most protective building". But what makes Dillon's
report unique, is the specific evacuation times based on a series
of exhaustive formulas.
"The methods developed here estimate the optimal
shelter exit time that minimises the total radiation exposure."
says Dillon. It is hoped the report will help assist emergency
planning officials in the development of an optimal low-yield
nuclear detonation response strategy. Specifically, Dillon is
interested in not only the minimisation of radiation dose, but also
"the minimisation of physiological stress and the efficient
allocation of resources to minimise the total loss of life".
A low-yield detonation is 0.1-10 kilotons (kT) -- 1 kT
is equal to 1,000 metric tons of TNT. The largest thermonuclear
weapon ever tested was the USSR's Tsar Bomba, weighing in at an
astonishing 57,000 kT, which was scaled down from its
initial 100,000 kT design by 50 percent. If one of those drops on
London, you might want to forget the shelter.