Posted by: Tom Keene on June 8, 2011
Can Consumption Sustain?
The look-back distinction is Japan and U.S. weather. Did the real production slowdown from these events affect U.S. GDP over quarters. There is real debate on this. I am decidedly in the wait-for-the-data camp.
Jobs. The key talking point is can jobs jumpstart without a construction jobs surge. Okay…less a surge. How about a lift. There are many present distinctions but this one hits home after May’s grim report.
Fiscal drag. I’ve heard this modeled at 1 to 2 percent but haven’t seen a killer study yet. That might be because no one has a clue what the fiscal dynamics will be. I’m watching overall investment. Others are focusing on a wide set of issues. Obviously government jobs, but many more issues as well. Can consumption sustain?