Daffodils, cod, Christmas trees and the Highlands' ski resorts could have become victims of global warming by 2050 according to an energy-efficiency report today. Warmer weather will, instead, introduce vineyards to Scotland, stingrays and more types of sharks in our coastal waters as well as termites, scorpions and mosquitoes carrying West Nile virus and dengue fever, the study - Forecasting the Future - says.
Published by the Energy Saving Trust, the body established by the government following the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, the document details the likely effect of climate change on Britain if nothing is done to cut emissions of greenhouse gases or reduce energy use.
As much as £200bn-worth of property and infrastructure including 2m homes could be at risk from flooding and coastal erosion by the middle of the century, the projection suggests. The cost of buildings subsidence, exacerbated by weather extremes, could top £600m a year and storm damage could add another £800m to annual insurance claims.
"Flooding is a potential problem as winter rains grow heavier and sea levels rise," says the report, produced in conjunction with the UK Climate Impact Programme. "Investment will be needed to protect London and other key places from flooding as well as vulnerable installations such as nuclear power stations.
"Within 50 years parts of East Anglia will have to be heavily defended against rising seas. Some land could be returned to the sea in more managed retreats." One such controlled breach of flood defences was carried out on Humberside last year.
Average temperatures are expected to be between 1C and 4.5C higher by the end of the century, when golf courses will become increasingly expensive to maintain due to long hot summers.
The report is being released as part of Energy Efficiency Week and comes amid a flurry of climate change predictions and warnings that not enough is being done to save energy or provide alternative sources from non-fossil fuel. Under the Kyoto protocol and other EU agreements, the UK must, by 2010, reduce its emissions of six major greenhouse gases by 12.5% compared with levels in 1990. The government has promised to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 20% by the end of this decade and by 60% by 2050.
The trust's projections are based on the presumption that such demanding targets cannot be met. Little can be done to halt global warming over the next 30-40 years because of the vast amount of such gases already released by burning fossil fuels, the trust believes. But there is a chance to mitigate the worst impacts of global warming beyond that date.
Last week the WWF (formerly the World Wide Fund for Nature) criticised the government for underestimating by 30% the true level of carbon dioxide emissions for which Britain is responsible.
"The prime minister's strong words on climate change in the UK are still being undermined by failure to control CO2 emissions," said the organisation's director of campaigns, Andrew Lee.
"Emissions at home are rising under Labour. In addition the economy is driving up emissions around the world." Food, manufactured goods and raw materials imported from abroad generate large CO2 emissions abroad, the WWF says, for which UK consumers are responsible.
This week Barbara Young, chief executive of the Environment Agency, will reinforce the message that individual consumers must make important choices. Consumption and energy use are rocketing, she will tell a conference in Birmingham. The number of electrical devices used by households in England and Wales is, for example, due to double this decade. The agency's estimate of the damage likely to be caused by flooding in 2080, if no action is taken to control global warming, is £26bn a year. Emissions of greenhouse gases will need to be cut by 75% in 2050 to prevent such dangers, she suggests. More than a quarter of all carbon emissions come from cars and 28% from homes, according to the Energy Saving Trust. "It is imperative that we become more aware of the energy we use in our homes and reduce our carbon dioxide emissions," warns Philip Sellwood, the trust's chief executive.
"Every time a light is switched on or a video is left on standby, carbon dioxide is emitted from a power station, causing damage to the environment.
The worst scenario for 2050 in the trust's report are based on studies of the likely impact on the UK's environment. Lack of snow could render Scotland's ski resorts redundant in 20 years. Daffodils, bluebells and crocuses might disappear because of warmer winters, as would spruce trees. Cod would fail to flourish in warmer waters and could be replaced by tuna.
Termites are already spreading north on the continent and are in France. Mosquitoes carrying fatal diseases could become a regular feature of the countryside. West Nile fever has already become endemic in the United States due to rising temperatures. Poisonous spiders could also flourish without winter frosts.
On the way in
Ticks, scorpions and poisonous spiders could become common in the hotter UK.
Hay fever could be experienced for months on end as trees and grasses flower far beyond their previous seasons.
We will need to take action to control fleas, wasps, mice and rats, which thrive mild winters and hot summers.
More types of sharks and stingrays could visit our warmer waters.
These pests are spreading north through Europe and could reach the UK.
Mosquitoes carrying diseases such as Dengue fever and West Nile virus have already invaded the US and could become a regular feature here.
On the way out
Warm waters further threaten dwindling numbers, with cod-and-chips potentially relegated to a thing of the past.
Scotland's ski resorts
With milder temperatures and less snow, Scotland's ski industry has already had to diversify into other activities such as mountain biking and paragliding.
These could become very expensive to maintain in the long, hot summers, with drought and water restrictions affecting the quality of grass, and waterlogged conditions in winter.
The village green
Traditional greens could become difficult to maintain, as soaring temperatures and drought turn them brown.
It could disappear as warmer summers and milder winters threaten its habitat.
Holidaymakers are likely to become more cautious of the summer sun.
Warmer winters will threaten daffs and crocuses.