by Ben P
Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 03:52:49 AM EST
From Sunday's Guardian/Observer: Sarkozy Seeks Help From Blair It appears that Sarko is feeling the heat from Sego, and attempting to turn to advice from Blair's experience about how to improve his image. Apparently, a new sondage from TNS-Sofres shows some rather troubling information for Sarko, showing that Sarko worries 55% of French voters ("il vous inquiete") while reassuring only 36% ("il vous rassure"). More below:
***From the front page ~ whataboutbob
Now I don't know a heck of a lot about French politics. A bit, not a heck of a lot. But I DO know a lot about American politics. And one very important thing to keep in mind when reading polls is to look at polling on personal characteristics - ask good political strategists and pollsters and they will tell you that they are leading indicators of vote getting potential. The 2004 US presidential is a classic example of this. I don't thave the time or inclination right now to dig up the polling data from October and September 2004, but I can tell you why John Kerry lost. Basically, Bush was ripe to be defeated. Historically, his popularity numbers were (at the time - now they are considerably worse) right on the cusp of unsuccessful incumbents and in the ball park of people like Gerald Ford (who ultimately lost to Jimmy Carter in 1976, despite having reasonable approval ratings, near 50% - just like Bush in the fall of 2004). Of course, the context in which the 2004 and 1976 transpired were very different. Basically, Bush's campaign succeeded in making enough people who didn't like Bush very much to distrust John Kerry more, particularly in a very visceral and subconscious way about "toughness" and "decisiveness." This key 3% or so didn't like the Iraq War - but Bush had raised strong doubts about Kerry in the ways I suggest - swung to Bush perhaps in the voting booth. The point of all this is is that polling well before the election indicated these doubts about John Kerry even when the "top line" figure indicating voter preference between the two candidates didn't show it - a figure particularly important amongst undecided voters whose voices are lost in "horse race" polls. As such, finally returning to France, Sarkozy has good reason to be uneasy when he sees numbers like the ones I reference above.
I must say that I am partially baffled by the Sarko phenomenon. Well, in some ways I'm not. I've seen him speak on a number of occassions, in differnet contexts (not in person, of ccourse!) and he obviously offers a fair bit more than the current government or, for that matter, the various socialist pretenders (Lang, Fabious, Jospin, blah) in portraying a sense of competence, leadership capability, and the ability "to get things done." I understand how the appeals to law and order and some of his thinking on immigration plays well.
What I don't understand is how he is going to position himself on the central economic questions. Is he a neo-liberal? A populist? A faux-liberal Gaullist? A Christian Democrat in neo-liberal clothing (like Merkel)? My sense of him - without following things well - is that he is something of a neo-liberal. But neo-liberalism is not at all popular in France. I mean, a tame (if probably misguided) attempt to reform the employment code, was stopped by student protests and opposed by 70% of the population. And this was from arch-Gaullist De Villepin! What do voters really expect Sarkozy is going to do! (see this article, for instance) If something as tame as the CPE pisses people off so much, why the appeal of Sarko? Hence, my incomprehension.
I would like to hear more from other more knowledgable observers on the issue. Is it that Sarko is not clearly defined on the issue and is perhaps thought of differently? That he had no serious opposition for the Presidentielle until Royal came on the scene, and thus voters were willing to go for anything that looked like it could at least achieve SOMETHING (in contrast to the current Chirac/DeVillepin debacle)? Is his support in the polls simply tribalism on the French "right" (which is actually quite moderate by US standards - although its somehting of an apples and oranges comparison)? And if he does become clearly defined as "liberal" (in the French sense), how will that affect his chances?
Furthermore, how do you think the 2007 Pres. will play out? And what is wrong with Sego? She strikes me as the only hope the Socialists have. The rest of the Party's leadership is moribund, IMO. But Sego actually appears a more effective candidate than Sarko. Is she too "conservative"? For God's sake. Anyway, I'd love (and greatly appreciate) further insight from more knowledgable posters.