MOON SUN SEISMOLOGY ACADEMIC REFERENCES
This page gives a listing of academic papers published on
Moon Sun seismology since 2000. For early references on earthquake tidal
triggering see ICET.
Moon Phase and Occurrence of Micro-earthquakes in the Tamba Plateau
T. IWATA & H. KATAO.
Journal of Geography. Vol 111, No 2. p 248-255. 2002.
Abstract: "In the Tamba Plateau, and earthquake swarm
area in the Kinki district, Central Japan, seismicity was activated just
after the Hyogo-ken Nanbu(Kobe) Earthquake(Mj7.3), which occurred in an
adjacent area in 1995. We found that micro-earthquake activities in the
Tamba Plateau corresponded to moon phase. Occurrences of
micro-earthquakes increased after a new moon and a full moon during 1995
and 1996. Before 1995, such a correlation could not be found. The
present study suggests a possibility that the stress change caused by
the Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake made seismicity in the Tamba Plateau
sensitive to tidal forces."
Effects on Tectonic Events
Jeremy D PESICEK.
Dept of Physics & Physical Oceanography. University of North
Clustering Relative to Lunar Phases in Taiwan
Cheng-Homg LIN et al
TAO Vol 14, no 3. pp 289-298. Sep 2003.
Triggering of Earthquakes in Japan Related to the Regional Tectonic
Sachiko Tanaka, Masakazu Ohtake, and
Dept of Geophysics, Graduate School
of Science, Tohoku University, Japan
Earth Planets Space. 56 511-515. 2004.
Abstract: “We observe a correlation between the Earth tide and
earthquake occurrence that is closely related to the regional tectonic
stress. We investigate the direction of the tidal compressional stress
using shallow earthquakes occurring in 100 subregions of Japan for
nearly five years. The azimuthal distribution of the compressional
stress obtained for the observed earthquake data is compared with that
synthesized for random earthquake occurrence. Statistical analysis
confirms a significant difference between the observed and random
catalogs for 13 subregions, which include the areas where unusual
seismic activities took place recently, and where the possibility of
future large earthquakes has been argued. For these subregions,
earthquakes preferentially occur when the tidal compressional stress is
near the dominant direction of P-axes of focal mechanisms obtained in
the corresponding subregions. This suggests that the tidal stress may
encourage earthquake occurrence when it acts in the direction to
increase the regional tectonic stress.”
Earth Tides Can
Trigger Shallow Thrust Fault Earthquakes
Elizabeth S COCHRAN, John E VIDALE & Sachiko TANAKA
Science, Vol 306. Nov 12, 2004.
show a correlation between the occurrence of shallow, thrust earthquakes
and the occurrence of the strongest tides. The rate of earthquakes
varies from the background rate by a factor of three with the tidal
stress. The highest correlation is found when we assume a coefficient of
friction of µ = 0.4 for the crust, although we see good correlation for µ
between 0.2 and 0.6. Our results quantify the effect of applied stress
on earthquake triggering, a key factor in understanding earthquake
nucleation and cascades whereby one earthquake triggers
Configuration: Implications For Earthquake Prediction
N VENKATANATHAN, N RAJESHWARA RAO
et al. 2004
Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras.
The Moon: Syzygy Predictions Fail The Test
KENNEDY, Matthew, VIDALE, John E & PARKER, Michael G.
Seismological Research Letters. Sep/Oct 2004. Vol 75. no 5. p 607-612.
on Spring Tides, Earthquakes and Tsunamis
Journal Coastal Research. Vol 23. Issue 2. Mar 2007.
Abstract: "The periods of the three-body system of Sun-Earth-Moon
play an important part in tidal dynamics. In this paper, I deal with
extreme proxigean spring tides. To produce these rare and unusually high
tides, several tide-raising effects must work together. Hipparcos' lunar
evection anomaly is influential. An interesting phenomenon can be
observed in that the first extreme proxigean spring tide in the new
millennium happened on January 10, 2005, in new moon phase, and half a
synodic month earlier, when the Moon was full on December 26, 2004, the
Christmas Tsunami was triggered in the Indian Ocean."
Emission, Earthquakes and Lunar-Solar Tides
A S BELYAKOV, V S LAVROV & A V NIKOLAEV
MAIK Nauka/Interperiodica. Vol 420. Number 1. June 2008.
the reality of the 56-year cycle and the increased probability of large
earthquakes for Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii during the period 2008–2011
according to lunar cyclicity
A A GUSEV. Journal of Volcanology and
Seismology. Vol 2. No 6. pp 424-434. Dec 2008.
Abstract: "A 56-year cyclicity in the occurrence of large
Kamchatka earthquakes has been previously detected. This is another
manifestation of the tendency for the timing of large Kamchatka
earthquakes to be synchronized to the cycles related to the period To
of rotation of the lunar nodes found by V.A. Shirokov in 1974. He
identified cycles of 18.6 years = To
and 6.2 years = To/3, while the
period of the 56-year cycle is 3To. The genuineness of
that phenomenon had to be revised in connection with the occurrence of a
large (M w = 7.8) earthquake in Kamchatka at the end
of 1997, in violation of the 56-year cyclicity. It turned out that, even
though the 56-year cycle has become less distinct after the 1997 event,
the cyclicity itself has remained statistically significant. A byproduct
is an updated forecast of earthquake hazard for Kamchatka. The update is
necessary in view of the approaching hazardous period of 2008–2011. It
is found that, assuming the validity of these empirical tendencies, the
expected rate of large earthquakes off Kamchatka for the period of
August 2008 to October 2011 will be four times as high as the long-term
mean. We derive the first-ever estimate of future hazard in terms of
felt intensity for specified soil conditions (the so-called average
soil) at a specified site (the town of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii). For
these soil conditions, the estimated probability of at least one shock
of intensity VII or greater during the period specified above is equal
to 0.39 ± 0.15. The expected rate of single events or sets of events
with M w ≥ 7.6 in Kamchatka during this period
is 0.76 ± 0.25."
of Earthquake Triggering by The Solid Earth Tides
Laurent METIVIER, et al.
Earth & Planetary Science Letters. Feb 2009. 278. p 370-375.
Abstract: "Clear evidence for earthquake triggering by the
earth tides has remained elusive for more than a century. Using the
largest global earthquake catalog available (the NEIC catalog with
442412 events), we observe a clear correlation (with 99% confidence)
between the phase of the solid Earth tide and the timing of seismic
events: earthquakes occur slightly more often at the time of ground
uplift by the Earth tide, i.e. when normal stresses are reduced within
the lithosphere. We observe that this phase distribution anomaly is
larger for smaller and shallower earthquakes. Although earthquakes in
regions with dominantly normal and strike-slip faulting seem to exhibit
more tidal triggering than regions dominated by thrust faulting, there
is no statistically significant evidence for a focal
mechanism-dependence on earthquake triggering. Finally, we show here
that it is highly probable that the observed triggering is caused by the
solid Earth tide, rather than by loading from the ocean or atmospheric
tides. Although an additional impact due to loading from ocean tides is
possible and probable, we cannot detect it here because the earthquake
database is not sufficiently complete and homogeneous (more small
magnitude earthquakes in oceanic areas are needed). Our results are
consistent with the idea of a damped sensitivity of earthquake
initiation to stress change—an event is slightly more probable (0.5 to
1.0%) when the tidal displacement is maximum, particularly for small and
Earthquakes, and Volcanoes
Science. Vol 297. no 5580. pp 348-349. Jul 19, 2009.
Summary: "Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
are caused primarily by plate tectonics. But as Kasahara explains in his
Perspective, several recent studies provide evidence that tidal forces
influence earthquakes associated with volcanic activity.
This idea was first suggested in the 1930s, but the forces involved were
long considered too weak and the evidence too limited. Recent results
from the Juan de Fuca Ridge in the Pacific show a particularly clear
diurnal pattern attributed to ocean tides."
Tremor-tide Correlations and Near-Lithostatic
Pore Pressures at Parkfield
University of California, Berkeley. Dec 2009
Abstract: "New observations of tidal triggering of non-volcanic
tremor near Parkfield, CA present a unique opportunity to better
understand the nature of tremor and the conditions under which it
occurs. Here we perform a full tidal analysis to determine the stress
orientations and magnitudes that favor tremor generation on the lower-crustal
San Andreas fault. Our results show that extremely small shear stress
perturbations primarily influence tremor activity levels while much
larger normal stress fluctuations and stressing rates have little to no
influence. These findings are indicative of near-lithostatic pore
pressures in the deep San Andreas fault zone and suggest that low
effective normal stresses explain the response of non-volcanic tremor to
Tidal Triggering of Earthquakes
Precursory to the Recent Sumatra Megathrust Earthquakes.
National Research Institute for Earth Science & Disaster Prevention,
Geophyisical Research Letters. Jan 21, 2010. doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
Abstract: "I observed tidal triggering of earthquakes
precursory to the three giant earthquakes occurring off Sumatra on 26
December 2004 (Mw 9.0), 28 March 2005 (Mw 8.6), and 12
September 2007 (Mw 8.5). I measured the correlation between the
Earth tide and earthquake occurrence in and around the focal regions of
these megathrust earthquakes. The result of statistical analysis
indicates that a high correlation appeared for several to ten years
preceding the occurrence of the large earthquakes. The correlation
vanished after the main events. The frequency distribution of tidal
phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle
where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault
slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic
stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of
the tidal stress change."
TIDES AND EARTHQUAKES
Vinayak G. KOLVANKAR*,
Samrudha MORE# and Nisha THAKUR#.
Computer Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre. Mumbai 400085, India.
# Project Trainees from BVMIT CBD Belapur, Mumbai, India.
"Earth tides trigger
earthquakes, which is an established fact. In this paper we try to find
New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter. No 57. p 54. Dec 2010.
of the earthquake triggering pattern by Earth tides, utilizing over 5
hundred thousand events from NEICUSGS
catalogue for global earthquakes with magnitude range of 2-10. We
studied different patterns of the
earthquakes for different ranges of periods, magnitudes, depths,
latitudes and longitudes. Although different
have made similar studies utilizing different regions of the globe with
different fault types, we have studied
effect of earthquakes triggered by Earth tides for the entire globe and
hence no particular fault type was considered.
study conducted for earthquakes in two different periods (1973 - 1989
and 1990 – 2008) indicates that Earth tides
earthquakes at all depths and up to magnitude 5.0. The lateral stresses
applied during Earth tides close to full
phase are found to be more effective than those stresses of Earth tides
during the new Moon phase. However,
new moon phase, earthquakes of magnitude up to 3.0 and at shallow focus
range up to 10 km are triggered
by the combined pull from Moon and Sun.
is conducted for one of the high seismicity area utilizing the patterns
of earthquakes triggered by Earth tides,
for consecutive periods, which provides good idea about the periodical
stresses built up prior to major
Earth tide plots for different smaller areas (typically 2000 X 2000 Km)
in the high seismicity regions show
changes. Foreshocks and aftershocks of major events were found to align
in a column representing range of Sun-Earth-Moon
(SEM) angles. In the aftershocks, this column might continue in the
foreshock column or shift to adjacent
or any other column depending on the change in the geometry and
orientation of the fault where major
Can the Moon Cause
National Geographic News. May 23, 2005.
Moon Linked To Earthquakes At Last
New Scientist. Feb 4, 2009.
Sun Moon Trigger San Andreas Tremors, Study
Reuters. Dec 23, 2009.
Sun Could Help Trigger Powerful Earthquakes.
Asia News Network. Feb 9, 2010.
Great Quake Coming, Feel The Earth Tides
New Scientist. p 16. Feb 27, 2010.