Showers and thunderstorms tracked across much of western, central, and northern KELOLAND overnight. General rainfall amounts of .25” to .50” have been reported, with around .41” in Mobridge since midnight. A few areas of showers have continued in the far northeast, but partly cloudy skies are expected in many areas as temperatures rise into the 70s. Sioux Falls should be warmer in the lower 80s this afternoon as a cold front slowly moves east across South Dakota this afternoon. Scattered rain may develop in both Pierre and Rapid City into the early afternoon.
Thunderstorms are likely in the northeast this afternoon, some severe with large hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes possible. This severe outlook includes both Aberdeen and Watertown. The storms will develop south along the front through the early evening along and just east of the James Valley. This activity will give the Sioux Falls area a 50% chance of thunderstorms. Some severe weather is possible farther south into southeastern SD as well. The storms will shift east into western MN and NW IA later this evening with severe weather chances diminishing.
Cooler NW winds will develop behind the front overnight into tomorrow. Highs will only be in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Thursday with partly cloudy skies.
Another storms system will enter western KELOLAND on Friday with more scattered storms returning on Friday. With highs in the mid 80s in Rapid City, some severe weather will be possible in the Black Hills, with storm chances spreading east late Friday night and Saturday morning.
It looks like more clusters of storms are likely on Saturday. Depending on how much instability we have, severe weather will be possible. Most of the storms will shift to our south by early Sunday.
The next wave of storms will move into the plains late Monday and Tuesday. Again, depending on the amount of instability ahead of that system, severe weather could be possible again in the region.