Dictators in postcolonial sub-Saharan Africa cling to power by keeping senior ministers in check and manipulating ethnic divisions, according to research from the University of British Columbia’s Vancouver School of Economics.
In a study titled The Dictator’s Inner Circle, Professors Patrick François and Francesco Trebbi found that dictators continuously shuffle their cabinets to prevent experienced ministers from developing their own political bases, which could give them the power to launch a coup.
Senior ministers four years into their posts pose the highest risk – and could therefore get sent to prison – as they’ve developed strength but have yet to lose their hunger for more power. This political dysfunction lies at the heart of much of the region’s economic malaise, according to the researchers.
In a separate paper, François and Trebbi offer a re-thinking of the so-called “big man” rule, a prevalent view of African politics in which a paramount leader doles out privileges to members of his ethnic group in return for their support, systematically excluding others.
“Rather than ethnic disputes leading to political dysfunction, there is instead a great deal of ethnic inclusion in African cabinets at the elite level,” explains François. “However, ethnic politics may be playing a more insidious role. The elite of all ethnicities are generally present at the table. But they solidify their power by maintaining ethnic rivalries and allocating the perks of office within their own groups.”
Adds Trebbi, “Such rivalries ensure that non-elites from an ethnic group cannot support other political leaders, nor will they demand public goods or services that would benefit all citizens.”
Both The Dictator’s Inner Circle and How Is Power Shared In Africa are part of a broader research program at the Vancouver School of Economics that studies African autocracies with the goal of offering new perspectives on the political economy of development.