As Libya celebrates Muammar Qadhafi’s death, it now confronts the most difficult part of its uprising: building a new national consensus.
By this point, Qadhafi’s end was largely symbolic — but it is still important to provide a sense of historical closure.
It was the fall of Tripoli in late August that truly represented the regime’s fall. Even before then, factions were already jockeying for power. The process will now accelerate exponentially — and shape Libya’s future.
Serious questions remain as to whether the process will unfold dramatically as a revolution or transform gradually as a political evolution. After eight months of intense warfare and looting of weapons depots, Libya remains an armed society. The security vacuum must be filled by organized defense forces.
Before the U.S. and its allies recognized the National Transitional Council, they had already engaged Qadhafi’s opposition by providing aid, ranging from military to financial. External assistance must now shift – though it must retain the critical but supporting role it held during the revolution’s military phase.
The West must tread carefully. A soft touch, as opposed to a hard presence, must prevail. Any attempt to intervene directly in the political process, or correlating spheres, will likely provoke a strong reaction from Libyans.
Libya’s transformation may require extensive time to develop. It is not only about elections. It involves building a new society, civic institutions and political culture. A system in which might eventually submits to right; and citizens feel represented by an accountable government that operates transparently.
Expectations must be driven by sober realism, not misguided romanticism. Westerners must restrain any hopes that a secular, pluralistic liberal democracy, largely reflecting their own systems, will emerge in the immediate future.
Libya remains a traditional society, where religion has a central role. There is unlikely to be a clear-cut divide between the state and religion. A great distinction exists, however, between societies where Sharia law is strictly applied, and countries where Sharia law serves as an “inspiration” for the political and legal systems. For ordinary Libyans, hopefully the latter prevails.
The legacy of 42 years of brutal dictatorship will likely linger for generations. Though the challenges are enormous, they are not insurmountable — particularly when considering Libya’s vast energy reserves.
After months of paralysis and considerable damage, Libya’s energy output should revert to pre-war levels by 2013 and hasten its reconstruction. This could prove a largely unparalleled blessing when compared to other Arab states experiencing similar turmoil.
Marco Vicenzino heads Global Strategy Project, an international political risk and business advisory firm.