Within the restrictions imposed on us as government civil servants and during the hard days of dictatorship, our generation was able to transfer Bahrain into a modern state in few years following independence in 1971.
Analysis of the official voting results of primary round and after taking into consideration the probable redistribution of votes indicates the chance of each of the two candidates from Waad opposition party is less than 50% (50% + 1 is the number of votes needed to win the second round).
These two seats are highly critical for both the government and the opposition. By winning the seats, the opposition will guarantee a 50% representation in the lower parliament. Still less than the two third majority required for affecting radical changes such as the amendment of the constitution, but enough to cause headache for the government. Of course the government has many other tricks to play such as using the appointed upper house to block decisions taken by the elected house. This tool was used this year to block a law proposed by the pro-government Islamists in the lower house to ban the sale of alcohol.
We have to wait to see the results of the final round but it seems that more pro-government Sunni liberals are replacing the Sunni Islamists, thus relieving the government from the tax it pays back to the Islamists which
in many cases takes the form of imposing more strict Islamic laws.
In my opinion, the chances of Waadââ‚¬Ts party members could increase if they start to moderate their messages and slogans because people of Bahrain have lost trust in all those raising Goebbels style slogans, which has become old fashion anyways. They should always remember the fact that the regime has given out more breathing space but not the rule. If they have agreed to abandon all forms of resistance including arms struggle and join the democratic process, then they should play by its rule. Still and within the limitations imposed by the regime many things can be achieved for the people of Bahrain. Within the restrictions imposed on us as government civil servants and during the hard days of dictatorship, our generation was able to transfer Bahrain into a modern state in few years following independence in 1971. We were able to achieve all that through dialogue and reasoning.
Finally, we would like to congratulate AlWifaq for their outstanding victory and hope they stop knocking their heads in the hard walls of the government and use dialogue and wisdom to serve all the people of Bahrain, not Shiite only, in areas such as economic development, upgrade of education and health services, housing and social services. They should do that in planned and organized manner not on hit and run basis.
I have used the figures published by the government for the calculations shown below (rounded to the nearest 1000):
The total number of eligible voters was 300,000 and the total number of the actual votes was 195,000 making a turnout of 65%.
The number of Bahrainis voted for AlWifaq candidates was 104,000 (53.3%), the number voted for Waad candidates was 7,000 (3.6%) and the number voted for other candidates was 84,000 (43.01%).
The total number of Bahraini citizens in 2001 census was 405,000 and according to the government figures the number in 2008 was 537,000. The total number according to a growth rate of 2.3% would be 475,000*.
Accordingly there is an increase in the number of Bahrainis by 62,000 not explained by the normal growth rate but could be explained by the addition of Bahraini emigrants to neighboring countries who opted to re-claim their citizenship after the government allowed dual citizenship with GCC countries in addition to granting citizenship to people lived in Bahrain with unclassified status after relaxing the regulations. The government at present is conducting a sample census which would show the latest population figures.
Dr. Sameer Khalfan – Bahrain
*The growth rate has been estimated based on the growth of Bahraini population between 1991 and 2001 censuses. The current actual rate should be slightly lower in line with the declining fertility rates.