Another storm system is set to impact the Ohio Valley on Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday. The surface low with this storm system will most likely pass just to our south and east, putting a portion of the region at risk for another round of wintry weather. As of now, it appears the best chances for a bout of sleet, freezing rain, and snow will stretch from Hartford, to Louisville, to Eminence KY and northward. Along this fairly narrow corridor, data suggests that freezing rain and sleet could be quite prolific, with significant ice accumulations possible Tuesday evening. Although we are within 30-36 hours of the event onset, there is still much model uncertainty in the eventual track of this storm. Subtle shifts in this storm track could yield changes to which type of precipitation falls where. A southward track would bring more of the wintry mix and snow into Kentucky, and a northward shift would make the event mostly rain for everyone. Stay up to date of the latest forecasts. Scroll down to see information on how this storm will develop.
To get an idea of how Tuesday's storm system is going to develop, consider the water vapor image above. As of early Monday morning, a sharp upper level impulse (circled bold black) was positioned just off the southern coast of California. This impulse is expected to swing into northern Mexico today and across the southern Plains tonight. As it begins to near our region on early Tuesday, an associated surface low will develop over the lower Mississippi River Valley and move toward the central Appalachian spine. This system will be able to draw upon ample amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture as it develops, meanwhile the surface low passing to our south will try to pull colder air at the surface into the Ohio Valley. Imagine this colder air sliding underneath a layer of warmer air aloft and that sets the stage for why freezing rain and sleet will be a possibility.
The image above is a depiction of the expected amount of rainfall through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts up to 1.5"-1.75" inches could cause some minor hydro problems, especially where grounds is frozen or snow covered.