Keep your boots close by.
It’s unclear what a more active Atlantic hurricane season means for Pennsylvania, but it increases the likelihood of heavy rain this summer.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast eight to 14 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean from now until the end of November, with three to seven of them being major storms with winds of at least 111 mph.
Those forecasts are based on high ocean temperatures in the mid-Atlantic and on upper-atmospheric wind conditions.
The hurricane season begins today. Historically, 97 percent of Atlantic hurricane activity occurs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
The path any storm might take — as well as if and where it might make landfall — depends on weather patterns at the time.
That makes it “very, very difficult” to predict if any of the storms might hit Pennsylvania, said Matt Steinbugl, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in State College.
Nevertheless, more storms increase the likelihood that some will make landfall, and there’s a chance that the remnants of those could reach the Northeast.
“Often, by the time the storm reaches this far north, it is generally weakened as it loses its oceanic heat source and begins interacting with other wind patterns,” Steinbugl said.
Generally, by the time it reaches the midstate, he said, it’s simply “a heavy rain producer.”
Nearly four decades ago, the remnants of Hurricane Agnes devastated Harrisburg, causing the worst flooding in the city’s history.