My son was gifted this game today. Given that we play a variety of complex games in our family (including Bridge), we're very surprised how much we like it and the various skills it brings into play (probabilistic assessment, poker face, memory, etc.). We're also surprised at how rounds usually end so quickly, as the rules provide for getting to the end of the deck. We have yet to go half way through a deck.
Is this typical, or are we missing something to the strategy?
Our probabilistic reasoning:
A deck consists of 4 each of 0 through 8, 9 9's, and 3 each of the power cards. So an average dealt hand has 20 points, with 10 points visible (I'm counting the power cards as 5's given that you'll have to draw randomly from the deck at the end for each of these).
A typical starting hand might have a low number and a high number known upon deal. If your first draw is a low number, you replace your high numbered card with that one and then you call for the end of a round. Why? Because you have, say, 5 points on your ends and an assumed 10 points (it's random) in the middle, for perhaps 15 total.
You have no knowledge of other hands but on average each will be 20, and with one more draw will be reduced by 4 points to 16 (on average). Not a huge edge, but definitely an edge. And this only widens as the sum of your two end cards drops further below 5.
Am I missing something? Or is it correct to call for the end of the round if the sum of your two end cards is 5 or fewer points after you draw the first card of the round?
The reasoning gets a little more complicated for subsequent rounds as other players' hands improve, but similarly if you know that 2 of your cards are very low, or better yet 3 within the first few rounds, then you call for an end, right?