Dice wrote:How do the 9th inning percentage numbers compare with the probability that a team will blow similar leads in every other inning?
If they are similar, it supports the contention that the idea of the closer is overrated. If they are not similar, and a 6th inning lead is far more likely to be erased in that inning than a 9th inning lead, then it supports the current usage of the closer.
You're focusing on the wrong aspect. The margin a team leads by is more important than the inning. If you read the article linked above, the best situations to use a reliver (that increase a team's chances of winning the most) are:
1. Top of 9th, lead by 1.
2. Top of 9th, tied.
3. Top of 8th, lead by 1.
4. Top of 8th, tied.
5. Top of 7th, lead by 1.
6. Top of 7th, tied.
7. Top of 9th, lead by 2.
Sense a pattern?
1. Bottom of 9th, lead by 1.
2. Bottom of 8th, lead by 1.
3. Bottom of 9th, tied.
4. Bottom of 8th, tied.
5. Bottom of 9th, lead by 2.
6. Bottom of 7th, lead by 1.
7. Bottom of 8th, lead by 2.
We don't see three run saves factor into the top seven situations for either the home or away team. And the 8th inning is more important than the current useage gives it credit for.
The major points of the study showed that:
1. A closer has more impact for his team when they’re on the road than when they’re at home. With just one exception, every situation in which the closer’s team has the lead has a higher impact for the visiting team than the home team.
2. While a closer has the greatest potential impact with a one-run lead in every inning, a tie-game situation is not far behind. In particular, closers have almost as much impact in tie games as they do with one-run leads when at home. Remember the expression, "play for a tie at home, play for a win on the road? " In this case, it’s true. If a closer is used to keep the game tied for the home team, the strategy will pay off more often than not.
3. And most important of all: the practice of using a closer to protect a three-run lead in the ninth inning is absurd, even in today’s high-offense environment. The impact that a closer has in that situation is less than the impact he would have protecting a three-run lead in the sixth inning! Almost every situation in which the closer’s team is tied or has the lead is more important than the simple task of the three-run ninth-inning lead, save or no save. In fact, for the home team, the impact of protecting a three-run lead in the 9th (.038) is less than the impact of throwing a scoreless top of the first inning (.046).