Here is an example of where current computer modeling can use a major improvement… Subtle boundaries not easily resolved by current large scale computer models occurred last night, bringing relatively dry thunderstorms to the northern part of the Metroplex. These were known to start several wildfires just north of D/FW.
Computer models had hinted at the possibility of a stray storm reaching the northern counties along the Red River for at least a week, but confidence in that solution was so low that hardly any mention of it was made. Of course, some severe weather did occur after all with wind damage reports in Wise County.
Now today leftover outflow boundaries reside across the Metroplex. With other conditions also more favorable for thunderstorm development, we may see an isolated t-storm or two develop after all.
Instability throughout the atmosphere has increased slightly, and the previously dry mid-atmosphere has moistened considerably overnight. This coupled with the remnant outflow boundaries from last night’s unexpected thunderstorms, may help initiate some storms here today as well.
Location is extremely difficult to pinpoint, again due to the same weaknesses in computer models that did not resolve last night’s thunderstorms well. Best guess is for areas northeast of the D/FW Metroplex, but anywhere within north Texas has a 20% chance of storms today. These storms will likely be diurnal based, meaning after sunset they will lose most intensity. Storms aren’t expected to be severe, but a strong storm or two can’t be ruled out.
Next rain chances are set for the middle of next week, when large scale pattern shifts will bring several days of increased precipitation chances to the region.