The sun’s 11-year activity cycle is about to peak, raising the possibility of communications interference and dazzling lights in the sky. Or possibly not.
The truth is the solar maximum — the name scientists give to the period when the sun’s activity levels are highest — might be the weakest peak seen in nearly 200 years.
In the coming weeks, the sun’s north and south poles will reverse and the number of dark spots will peak. Sun spots are simply cool wells of particles on its surface that form where magnetic field lines poke through.
The solar max does increase the likelihood that loops and strands of hot plasma will rise from the sun’s surface and snap like a whip, blowing charged protons and electrons in all directions, according to Jaymie Matthews, an astronomer at the University of British Columbia.
While the hail of particles present the potential for disruption to the function of satellites and cellular communications or the end of all life on Earth, the greater likelihood is a benign light show (called the aurora borealis) as the particles strike the Earth’s upper atmosphere.
“There are more flares and solar winds are gustier, but we are well protected,” said Matthews. “These particles are like little bullets and if they rained down on the Earth they would hit living organisms, disrupt cells, cause cancers and likely lead to the extinction of life.
“The good news is that the Earth’s magnetic field acts like a protective force field, like the deflector shields in Star Trek, but our shields are always up.”
When charged, particles from the sun collide with oxygen molecules in the upper atmosphere and create a luminous glow in the northern sky (or southern, if you are looking toward the south pole).
Because of the cyclic increase in particles escaping the sun, the aurora borealis has already been observed as far south as Vancouver several times this year, first in June and again in July.
But what is drawing the attention of solar physicists to this peak is not its strength, but its weakness. The number of sun spots visible now compared to the same period 11 years ago has dropped by nearly half. The number of spots visible during a solar max ranges as high as 250, but the current peak is predicted to hit only 65, according to the U.S. space agency NASA.
“The cycles, even though they come like clockwork, aren’t identical,” said Matthews. “This last cycle has been anomalous.”
The number of sun spots has been depressed since about 2008, a trend that might prove very interesting.
Two historical periods of low solar activity — the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) and the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) — coincided with extended periods of global cooling, the heart of a 500-year cold period known as the Little Ice Age.
The drop in solar activity has ignited furious debate online among dissenting scientists and doomsday preppers, but Matthews says such a minimum is unlikely to reach the depths of a Maunder Minimum and it will take several more 22-year polarity cycles before the trend reveals itself with any certainty.
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