- Valuing probability distributions
How does one value a distribution of possible returns?
One method would be to estimate the relative probability
of different future possibilities and then discount
them to present value. For example, if we believed it
was equally likely that an investment after one year
would produce either $5 or $12 or $20, and the current
rate for a risk-free one-year investment were 6.3%,
we could compute the investment's present value as follows.
2.4.2 - Valuing certainty equivalents
Another method to value a range of future results is
to find the present value of their "certainty equivalents."
Return to our example of an investment that will return
either $5 or $12 or $20 after one year, with an assumed
current rate of 6.3% for a risk-free one-year investment.
Perhaps we could determine the expected value of this
investment, and then determine the equivalent certain
amount this investment is worth, given the variability
of its returns. Once we determine this "certainty
equivalent" we could then compute its present value
-- thus. the investment's value. (More
2.4.3 - Adjusting discount rates
Another method for valuing future returns is to focus
on the volatility of the expected return and adjust
the discount rate to account for this volatility.
(In this way the discount rate compensates for two financial
elements -- volatility risk and time
value of money.) (More 2.4.3>>)