New publication: dynamic modelling approach for streamflow forecasting
Experimental evaluation of the dynamic seasonal streamflow forecasting approach report
Is it possible to provide accurate and reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts using a dynamic hydrologic modelling approach?
This question has been addressed through an experimental evaluation report published by the Bureau this month.
The report is based on a project that evaluated the performance of the dynamic modelling approach for key water supply catchments in the Murray–Darling Basin, where statistical seasonal streamflow forecasts are currently available.
Accuracy and reliability of one-month and three-month ahead probabilistic streamflow forecasts are assessed using rainfall forecasts from Bureau's POAMA 1.5 model and advanced rainfall downscaling and hydrologic modelling techniques.
Eight catchments across the southern Murray–Darling Basin were examined: Cotter River (Upper Murrumbidgee) at Gingera, Murrumbidgee River above Tantangara Reservoir, Queanbeyan River at Tinderry, Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac, River Murray (Upper Murray) at Biggara, Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie, and Dohertys and Taggerty (Upper Goulburn).
Research required for this work has been supported by Water Information Research and Development Alliance, the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, and the university sector. Following successful completion of the project, the Bureau and its research partners are now operationalising the dynamic approach.