In software development, a mashup is an application that includes bits of functionality and content from multiple applications within a new organic whole. It doesn't adhere to the standard categories of applications and content that we are familiar with. This type of development has taken off with the advent of the Internet (which has made it easy to do) and can result in new applications that have incredible power and functionality (or go horribly wrong, think Frankenstein). What we are seeing today in the Lebanon and Gaza is a typical 21st century warfare mashup -- since it breaks down categories of warfare. For example:
- Israel is fighting what looks similar to a classic air campaign (updated from carpet bombing with more accuracy) aimed at crushing enemy moral cohesion by bypassing military targets and terror bombing Lebanese civilians (Robb note: I updated this to make it clear that this was a use of conventional weapons to fight a moral war like 4GW). In contrast, Hezbollah started the recent the hostilities by a special operations attack on a military target.
- By sowing the 4GW seeds of menace, mistrust, and uncertainty, Israel may collapse a state (Lebanon). Failing states in the current environment is usually reserved for global guerrillas since it is often nearly impossible to put them together again. Again, in contrast, Hezbollah has cast itself as the defender of Lebanon.
- Most of this conflict is being fought in the media rather than on the actual battlefield. Also, most of this flare-ups long term impact is likely to be seen within the larger global and regional networks each participant belongs to.
With Hezbollah’s entry into the war between Israel and Hamas, Fourth Generation war has taken another developmental step forward. For the first time, a non-state entity has gone to war with a state not by waging an insurgency against a state invader, but across an international boundary (Robb note: I would argue that 9/11 was that developmental step). Again we see how those who define 4GW simply as insurgency are looking at only a small part of the picture.
I think the stakes in the Israel-Hezbollah-Hamas war are significantly higher than most observers understand. If Hezbollah and Hamas win—and winning just means surviving, given that Israel’s objective is to destroy both entities—a powerful state will have suffered a new kind of defeat, again, a defeat across at least one international boundary and maybe two, depending on how one defines Gaza’s border. The balance between states and 4GW forces will be altered world-wide, and not to a trivial degree.Final Note: One major Hezbollah blunder, was its failure to use its extensive inventory of rockets to attack Israeli systems (like power stations and fuel depots), in a crude rendition of an effects based air operation. This would have been a clean extension of the earlier attacks on conventional targets (including the attack on the Israeli ship and the initial special operations attack that took two Israeli soldiers prisoner), and any casualties associated with an attack on a systems target would more likely to have been seen as collateral damage (as part of a war between two equivalent organizations). Further, it could have caused extensive economic damage. On the moral front, this approach would have placed Israel at a significant disadvantage when it opted to bomb Lebanese systems due to paucity of Hezbollah targets. Instead, Hezbollah opted for a useless, low yield civilian terror campaign on Haifa.