AccuWeather made a splash Wednesday when it released its winter outlook predicting big snows for the I-95 corridor. Not surprisingly, NOAA’s climate outlook for winter is much more conservative.
Released yesterday, NOAA’s outlook gives equal chances of above or below normal precipitation for most of the East Coast and big I-95 cities from Washington, D.C. to Boston. The only area of the U.S. where above average precipitation is favored is across the southern tier. It writes:
ONCE EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE ESTABLISHED, THE EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ENHANCES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL US ..., AND INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
NOAA does not make specific snowfall predictions.
As far as temperatures go, NOAA is calling for increased odds of a warm winter across the northern half of the U.S., including the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. It writes:
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ... SHOW INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL U.S. AND SOME AREAS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL U.S., DUE TO THE LIKELY INCREASING INFLUENCE OF EL NINO CONDITIONS
As for as snow in the Washington, D.C. area, usually warmer than average temperatures are not a good thing as they favor rain or mixed precipitation more than snow.
On the other hand, as we have said repeatedly in the past, because D.C.’s average area snowfall is relatively low (around 12-18”), it just takes one or two big storms to push us over the average - which is possible even in a warm winter.
Capital Weather Gang’s winter outlook will be issued this fall.