Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET February 14 - February 20, 2013
Above-average weekly rains added on to already large seasonal rainfall surpluses in northern Mozambique.
Below-average rains in Namibia, Angola, South Africa and Botswana have led to poor ground conditions.
1) During late January and early February, several weeks of enhanced precipitation has led to flooding, and elevated river levels in the Zambezi and Busi Rivers of Mozambique. Locally heavy rains are forecast across parts of Zambia, Malawi and northern/central Mozambique for a fourth consecutive week. With above-average ground moisture in place, and thirty-day rainfall surpluses >50mm, the risk for flooding in the region remains high during the upcoming outlook period.
2) Poorly distributed rainfall, both spatially and temporally, has led to the degradation of ground conditions throughout portions of southern Angola and northern Namibia. The poor conditions have already led to livestock losses in Namibia. With little rain forecast for the next week, seasonal rainfall deficits are expected to grow and vegetative conditions are expected to continue to worsen.
3) After below-average rains last year, poor seasonal rains to this point have led to low reservoir levels and water restrictions in southern Botswana and delayed planting and deteriorating livestock conditions in the North West province of South Africa. Recent rains have provided some much needed moisture. However, below-average rains are forecast for the next week, likely increasing rainfall deficits and maintaining dry conditions.