Saturday, 3 April 2010
The Monty Hall dilemma is a probability puzzle based on the American television game show Let's Make a Deal. Imagine you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats.
You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then asks you if you want to stick with your original pick, or swap to the other remaining door. What do you do?
Most people think that it doesn't make a difference and they tend to stick with their first pick. But it does make a difference. Even pigeons know that.