Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The water vapor imagery and upper level analysis currently show a
rather vigorous upper level low moving eastward through Texas with
ridging over the southeast states.
As is typical for late May, the MSLP pattern across the local area is very diffuse with nothing notable.
Deep layer moisture is also at seasonal values.
There has been little change from the previous forecast thinking, which favors scattered storm development this afternoon initially along the Gulf Coast sea breeze front and then spreading into Southern Georgia as convergence increases late in the day with the arrival of the Atlantic sea breeze front.
The PoP forecast currently ranges from 20% across the far northwest to 40% across the eastern half of the area.
Afternoon highs mostly in the lower 90s are expected with upper 80s at the beaches.
Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
the regional pattern commences with local area in between a
positively tilted trough to our west with upper level low over TX and, a ridge just east of Florida.
At the surface, high in Atlc well east of Carolinas with WWD extension of ridge across N FL and Nrn Gulf region.
Model soundings show onshore sfc-H85 with PWATs approaching 1.5 inches.
As in recent evenings, there will be some lingering convection from interaction of Gulf and East coast sea breezes across mainly GA counties.
Will go with 10-30% SW-NE eve POP gradient.
Some storms may be strong with small hail, gusty winds and cannot discount an isold severe storm.
Expect inland lows in upper 60s.
High PWATs and light winds favor fog development, some may be
guidance shows that local area remains between trough / low and ridge, however ridging begins to break down as upper low broadens from TX Newd into LWR MS Valley and Ewd across Wrn Gulf states.
This results in somewhat cooler air aloft and more forcing and unstable conditions than today. Surface ridge also shunted Swd. This reflected in deeper onshore flow in soundings.
Under light steering flow, Gulf seabreeze will again generate chance of aftn convection across FL maximizing during late aftn and eve with
seabreeze/boundary clashes across mainly Ern third of CWA.
Cooler pockets aloft combined with seabreeze/outflow clashes will favor strong to isold pulse severe storms.
Will go with 40-50% aftn W-E POP gradient dropping to 20-30% in eve. Inland Highs around 90, lows in mid 60s.
upper low broadens Sewd into LA with Ern ridge well offshore.
Locally more unstable than Wednesday reflected in model soundings with deep sly flow and PWATs around 1.6 inches.
So again strong to isold severe storms possible.
Light largely uni- directional sly steering flow to mid levels favors slow moving heavy rainers.
Chances for convection and especially non-seabreeze convection increase especially over Wrn CwA.
Will go with 50-40% W-E POP gradient. Inland highs around 90.
Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Throughout much of the long term period, the region will be located in a weakness in the Eastern CONUS ridge.
The large upper low across the western Gulf will shift eastward but weaken with time.
Though the increase in deep layer moisture by Friday will result in higher rain chances into the weekend, the pattern doesn`t look sufficiently wet at this time.
Temperatures early in the period will be above normal but should trend back toward normal values by Friday as convective activity limits afternoon temperatures to the upper 80s to near 90.
Some MVFR to IFR conditions are possible for a few hours early this morning prior to sunrise at DHN and ECP with VFR conditions returning quickly after sunrise.
Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon.
A typical summertime pattern will be in place throughout the week
with light winds and low seas outside the sea breeze zone.
Relative humidity values are expected to stay above critical thresholds for the next several days with no red flag conditions expected.
Aside from some localized minor increases due to local runoff from
Sunday`s rain, rivers continue their downward trend.
While some locally heavy rainfall is possible with any of the storms this week, widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated, which will
allow the downward trend to continue on area rivers.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 91 67 89 66 90 / 40 20 30 20 40
Panama City 88 71 85 70 83 / 30 10 20 20 50
Dothan 92 68 90 67 89 / 30 10 30 20 40
Albany 92 68 91 67 91 / 30 20 30 20 40
Valdosta 93 67 90 67 90 / 40 30 40 30 40
Cross City 91 68 89 67 89 / 40 10 40 20 40
Apalachicola 86 70 83 70 83 / 30 10 20 20 40