13 Aug 2009
In the definition of DVOA it is said that a play for 10 yards (when resulting in a 1st down) is generally worth 3pts, a 20 yard play is 4pts, and 40+ yard play is 5pts.
So, suppose the Pats start 3 drives on their 20. If Randy Moss catches 4 40yard bombs for 2 TDs that is 20pts + the TD bonus * 2. The third drive consists of Wes Welker catching 8 10 yard passes for 1 TD. That would be 6*3 + 2*3*1.1 = 24.6pts + TD bonus (the 1.1 is for the two plays in the red zone).
The book also says that the TD bonus isn't nearly as big as fantasy football TD bonuses (so we can assume it is less than 6pts). If we subtract away one of the TD bonuses.
Wes Welker = 24.6pts
Randy Moss = 20pts + TD bonus.
Since the TD bonus is less than 6
It would appear that the box score of:
4-160 2TDs is potentially worth less than the box score of 8-80 1TD using DVOA.
I am sure that the formula is more complex than what is described in the book, but if this example is somewhat close to the mark, I think the system may be devaluing big plays and players who are big play threats.
50 replies , Last at 15 Sep 2009, 11:35am by Bowl Game Anomaly