If there’s a hurricane season without hurricanes, did it actually happen?
That metaphysical question almost became reality this year when the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season concluded Saturday not with a bang, but a whimper. Although forecasters predicted 13 to 20 named storms, including seven to 11 hurricanes, only two ’canes materialized — Humberto and Ingrid, both weak Category 1s. That made this year’s storm season the mildest in 31 years.
That is of course reason to celebrate. But it’s also worth contemplating why the experts were about as close to the mark as an Alabama field goal kicker.
It has now been eight years since a hurricane made landfall in Florida. That lull follows an especially active period in which the state was hammered by seven hurricanes from 2004-05. During that time, some blamed the surge in storms on man-made climate change, and predicted that would become the norm (this despite the fact that numerous studies in recent years have found no evidence that the number of hurricanes and Pacific typhoons is increasing because of the rise in global temperatures, although climatologists theorize that their strength may increase).
Then, suddenly, relative silence.
It’s easy to forget that prior to the 2004 increase in hurricanes, Florida hadn’t suffered even a Category 1 landfall since 1999. So contrary to the apocalyptic predictions, the weather remains cyclical and subject to several factors. For instance, this year meteorologists are blaming the sparse number of hurricanes on increased wind shear and additional dust from the Sahara Desert that denied the atmosphere the moisture it needs to breed hurricanes.
It’s foolish to use single data points — be it one storm, one year or even a short period — to prove or disprove climate trends, which unfold over decades, if not centuries. Both sides in the debate do it, from every violent storm and heat wave being trumpeted as the harbinger of a hotter earth, to cooler temperatures and calm skies supposedly debunking global warming alarmists.
The 2013 hurricane season, though, can be a useful reminder to take the annual forecasts with a shaker full of salt. They grab headlines, especially in Florida, and make for engaging parlor banter much the way preseason NFL predictions do. But despite the scientific credentials of the prognosticators, they still are subject to the many variables of Mother Nature. They can made educated guesses, but they don’t have crystal balls.
The risk with these forecasts that fall way short, and with hurricane-less hurricane seasons, is that the public will grow complacent. The predictors become doomsayers to be mocked or ignored, and that attitude bleeds into storm forecasting when the weather actually turns dangerous. Threats aren’t taken as seriously as they should. People don’t take precautions or evacuate because they believe it’s another false alarm.
Those bets have paid off the last eight years. But at some point that winning streak will end, and the consequences of losing could be enormous. Don’t take 2013 for granted.