According to the polls, there was a veritable collapse in the number of birthers in the wake of President Obama’s release of his long form birth certificate last April (2011). Most concluded that Obama was born in Hawaii just as he’s always said, but some doubled-down on conspiracy thinking with claims that the President had presented a fake document and a cottage industry of self-credentialed document experts arose to deny the long form’s authenticity.
Most recently the State of Hawaii has twice provided official confirmation of the certificate, first to the Arizona Secretary of State and then to an attorney who filed it in Federal District Court in Mississippi. Proof like this is a sore blow to those who claimed that the White House forged the birth certificate. Some I believe are now convinced that the certificate is legit but others add Hawaii to the list of conspirators.
All of this reminds me of a religious movement led by William Miller in the 19th century. He predicted the second-coming of Jesus and many of his adherents sold all their possessions and stood in expectation of the cosmic event predicted for October 22, 1844. That non-event became known as “The Great Disappointment.” The Wikipedia has a fine article on the topic, and I find it instructive to look at how those disappointed dealt with it. Some explained it away and doubled-down on their beliefs, while:
[p]robably the majority … simply gave up their beliefs and attempted to rebuild their lives.
What is said of the Millerites may be instructive in understanding modern-day birther believers:
The Great Disappointment is viewed by some scholars as an example of the psychological phenomenon of cognitive dissonance. The theory was proposed by Leon Festinger to describe the formation of new beliefs and increased proselytizing in order to reduce the tension, or dissonance, that results from failed prophecies. According to the theory, believers experienced tension following the failure of Jesus’ reappearance in 1844, which led to a variety of new explanations. The various solutions form a part of the teachings of the different groups that outlived the disappointment.
Any day now ….
For further reading:
- Bruce & Stan’s Guide to the End of the World: A User-Friendly Approach (Bickel & Jantz)
- Visions of the End: Apocalyptic Traditions in the Middle Ages (McGinn)
- Apocalypses: Prophesies, Cults, and Millennial Beliefs Through the Ages (Weber)