Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) wasted no crisis knowing what and whom to blame following the devastating tornado that hit Moore, Oklahoma. Republicans caused it to happen through anthropogenic (man-caused) global warming. “When cyclones tear up Oklahoma and hurricanes swamp Alabama and wildfires scorch Texas, you come to us, the rest of the country, for billions of dollars to recover. And the damage that your polluters and deniers are doing doesn’t just hit Oklahoma and Alabama and Texas.”
So what about all that hot air? Is it possibly coming from none other than the senator himself? Well-respected meteorologist Joe Bastardi believes so, and will explain why.
Mr. Bastardi’s reputation for bold and accurate weather forecasts has landed him interviews on numerous major television programs, including Fox News Live, the O’Reilly Factor, Your World With Neil Cavuto, and Imus in the Morning, to name but a few. Many companies across a multitude of industries use his analytical services which correlate similarities between current and historical weather patterns to predict likely developments.
Larry Bell: Joe, it seems that every time people somewhere in the world experience a weather-related tragedy or hardship, be it a tornado, hurricane, drought, flood, blizzard snowfall, or unseasonably cold or hot conditions, we see pundits and politicians blaming them on an alarming and unprecedented “climate change” we are causing. Are we really screwing things up that badly?
Joe Bastardi: No Larry, Mother Nature rules! She’s totally the boss, always has been…always does things her way…and not just in America.
First of all, we need to keep in mind that “climate” occurs over at least three decade periods and on a large scale. The 48 contiguous U.S. states we hear most about in the news only constitute about 1.58 percent of the globe. These changing climate and fluctuating weather consequences are driven primarily by natural changes in solar cycles, ocean temperatures, and “stochastic events” such as volcanoes, which I have labeled the triple crown of cooling. The first two occur on various long term cycles; decades in the oceans, and centuries with the Sun. The stochastic events are random wild cards ( just to make it all more fun).
Right now we’re seeing the same kind of major events on a regional scale that occurred the last time the Pacific Ocean shifted its temperature phase from warm to cold when the Atlantic was in a warm phase, and globally, the Earth’s temps have fallen about .05C in the last four years. . The European winters also look very similar now to those in the early 1950s. People familiar with circumstances during the Korean War can note that cold conditions that existed in the Far East were also comparable. Alaska has once again turned much colder, just as it did then when the Pacific temperatures cooled and sea ice expanded.
Here in the U.S., a drop in tropical Pacific temperatures causes less moisture to be present in the atmosphere than when that ocean is in its warming state. That causes conditions to be drier, especially near and east of the Rockies, as well as in the Deep South. This is when we see hotter, drier summers; winters tend be warmer earlier, and colder later.
We’re also seeing colder spring temperatures caused by a multi-decadal warming temperature shift in the Atlantic which has greatest influence in the late winter and spring, forcing what we call a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Springs like this year, although not as extremely cold, will be more common the next 5 to 10 years. We can also expect to witness increased tornado activity which is linked to the cold decadal Pacific shift and a cooling globe. This happens when cool air in northwest North America trying to find a pathway southeast collides with warm air coming from the south in a clash zone right in the center of our nation. The result is predictable… a fight is on.
Larry: Seems like we’re always hearing media reports about how weather conditions are getting worse, caused by man-made climate change of course…our carbon-belching smoke stacks, SUV’s and all.
Joe: Part of that appears to be attributable to very short memories concerning times past, and even shorter media attention spans. It seems that “worse” is always more newsworthy than “better”. The fact is that those alarmist claims simply aren’t true. I’ll begin with a bit of personal history that got me interested it this subject.
My father, also a meteorologist, was born in 1929. He studied and earned his degree at Texas A & M University in 1965, beginning college at the age of 31 with a family in tow. Dad was passionate about the subject of weather. Some of my best memories as a child are when he regaled me with stories of hurricanes that hit New England in the 1930s, ‘40s, and ‘50s. That was in the ‘60s and ‘70s when weather conditions were pretty quiet, so I had no idea based upon my own experiences how bad things could get.
Dad used to preach about large-scale linkages… how to stand back, look at the bigger pictures, and try to figure out what the weather was saying. He always, ALWAYS, stressed the tropical oceans as the big driver in the weather. The reason is that the warmer and moister air is… the more energy it can add to the system. It’s not a one- to- one ratio.
For instance, in the mixing ratios it takes a 15 degree Celsius rise when temperatures are at minus 20 degrees Celsius to equal what happens with a one degree change at 30 degrees Celsius. This means that the Tropics and their inputs present the primary source region for the changes. When the tropical Pacific warms…a much larger and even warmer source region than the Atlantic… there is a response much like when you turn a warm shower on in your bathroom. The room heats up.
Well, that’s what we saw after the cold period was over in the ‘60s and ‘70s. The rise began and the Atlantic joined it in the ‘90s, just like now. As soon as the atmosphere adjusted to the oceans, the temperatures leveled off. And now, with the Pacific cooling, they are starting down again. This is basic climate cycle theory, and it can be plainly seen in a link between surface and air temperatures. None of this has anything to do with atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.
Larry: As you mentioned, the period between the 1960s and ‘90s were pretty quiet in comparison with immediately previous times. And you think we’re in for rougher times going forward? If this is the case, I guess we’re going to hear a lot more hot air about a carbon-caused global warming crisis.
Joe: Yes, the particular combination of entirely natural ocean conditions that are developing now are producing a change in the in the entire global weather system. In the Tropics, the main source of heat is slightly cooler to the west of us, while the Atlantic is warm. This sets up a certain pattern of events that is different from the ‘60s through ‘90s.
Why? That’s because first, the Pacific was cold then, and the Atlantic was cold also. Then when the Pacific warmed, the Atlantic was still cold. That combination resulted in less overall hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. For meteorologists, this is entirely logical and intuitive. If the tropical Atlantic is cooler, and the tropical Pacific is warmer, then where will the hurricanes be?
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