Apple (AAPL) — On Aug. 7, I said, “Apple stock has rallied close to its 200-day moving average at $474, where traders may be wise to nail down a profit. However, the stock appears capable of completing a long-term reversal from a saucer formation that could prove very rewarding for patient Apple investors.”
However, since then, analysts have revised earnings downward. The consensus estimate for fiscal 2013, ended in September, is $39.12 per share, down from $44.15 in fiscal 2012. And although the average estimate for fiscal 2014 is $42.50, some are indicating that this might be revised lower as well.
Technically, AAPL appeared to be establishing a bullish saucer formation. But the recent gap down from a double-top and the stock’s failure to hold above its 50-day moving average are not good signs. Thus, it’s best to sell Apple and wait for it to stabilize above its July low of $389 before exploring new positions.