Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 042319
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
319 PM PST Wed Mar 4 2015
Warm and dry weather will continue the next 7 days, with a
possible return to unsettled weather for the middle of next week.
A strong ridge of high pressure persists over the eastern Pacific
today, with dry northerly flow aloft over California. Clear skies
and light winds are being observed across the forecast area as
surface high pressure builds into NorCal. Temperatures have warmed
up into the mid 60s to lower 70s across the Valley, with 40s to
60s over the mountains. Warm spot is along the Northern Sacramento
Valley, which had some downsloping north winds earlier today.
Very little weather to speak of the next several days. The
aforementioned ridge of high pressure will move toward Northern
California, forming a closed upper high by Friday. This should
lead to a gradual warming trend across the forecast area.
Temperatures in the upper 60s today will warm into the 70s Friday
and into the weekend across the Valley. Average highs in the
Valley for this time of year are in the mid 60s, so we`ll be
roughly 5 to 15 degrees warmer than normal by this weekend.
We may see a few patches of fog develop over the next several
mornings, particularly along the northern San Joaquin Valley.
However, with longer days and more direct sunlight this time of
year, it`s getting to be more unlikely to see more widespread fog
.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Upper level ridging peaks on Sunday, with dry weather and the
warmest temperatures of the week. Temperatures should be around 8
to 12 degrees above normal, but are not expected to break records.
The ridge gradually weakens on Monday and then shifts eastward on
Tuesday. High temperatures should lower a few degrees each day.
Models continue to show the approach of a system for mid to late
week, but have slowed the onset of precipitation some, especially
the latest runs of the ECMWF. The GFS is now showing a weaker wave
pushing in Tuesday night and Wednesday, while the ECMWF and the
GEM still show a significant upper level trough moving in for
Wednesday and Thursday. In spite of differences in timing and
intensity, the bottom line is that there is increasing confidence
for some precipitation mid to late next week. How widespread and
just how wet it will be remains to be seen. Snow levels are
expected to start over 8000 feet, lowering to pass levels and
potentially a little lower. An unsettled pattern could bring
additional periods of precipitation into the weekend. EK
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies across the Valley through
Thursday...although some mountain valley fog is possible overnight
into the morning hours. Light winds, generally northerly winds in
the Valley through Thursday, with east to northeast winds in the
Sierra, locally gusting to 15-20 kts over ridges. EK