Food Security Outlook - October 2012 through March 2013
General improvement in food security
With the uncertainty over future developments in the political crisis in northern Mali, and with current indiciations of continuing relative stability across the country, projected food security outcomes for this outlook report are based on a status quo scenario. However, the report also outlines the potential effects of a new outbreak of conflict on food security. The analysis will be updated as new data is made available.
IPC Phase 2: Stress levels of food insecurity in the Western Sahel and the North, even in agropastoral areas, should improve between now and December with the new harvest availability (millet and rice), good levels of milk production, the gradual rebound in economic activity, and ongoing humanitarian assistance programs. In the South, these same factors are promoting a return to normal seasonal practices and bringing food insecurity levels down to IPC Phase 1: Minimal acute food insecurity.
The losses of large tracts of cropland to flooding and the seed shortages in riverine rice-growing and transhumant livestock-raising areas (LZ 3) and the Niger River Delta area of Djenné (LZ 6) will mean less seasonal income for poor households, putting them in IPC Phase 2 (stress) between now and March of next year.
The threat of a desert locust infestation is diminishing with the end of the rainy season in the Sahel and the likelihood of their moving northwards, into North Africa. However, ongoing locust breeding activities in require continued vigilance on the part of locust control agencies.
The political situation remains status quo, with no new large-scale outbreaks of fighting in the North. This state of relative calm is encouraging IDPs to return to their homes, gradually revitalizing the economy and, in general, is helping to stabilize market conditions, food availability, and the pursuit of farming activities. A new outbreak of conflict could affect food security levels between October and March of next year.