Met Office Predict Wet/Dry Drought/Floods
By Paul Homewood
Julia wants more money!
In my post yesterday, “Slingo Pretends She Knows Why It’s Been So Wet!”, we noted that, between April and December last year, the Met Office monthly outlooks had consistently, and incorrectly, predicted drier than normal weather for the UK.
However, the earlier months of the year had disappeared from the Met’s archives. Verity Jones has kindly sent me the missing months, so how do these pan out?
22nd December – “For the 3-month period January-February-March 2012, for UK precipitation, the broad-scale signal, although weak, is for somewhat wetter conditions than normal.”
RESULT – RAINFALL WAS 66% OF NORMAL
23rd May – “For UK average rainfall, the forecast for this summer is very uncertain, due to a lack of any strong driving factors. Although there is a somewhat elevated chance, relative to climatology, of the summer being wet, it looks unlikely that there will be very wet conditions. However, the probability of very dry conditions remains close to climatology”. [Translation – we have no idea]
RESULT – RAINFALL WAS 158% OF NORMAL
It is abundantly clear that the scientists at the Met Office have not the slightest idea, from one month to the next, what will happen to rainfall, or the weather in general in the UK. For Slingo to stand up at the end of the year, and claim that she knew all along that this was on the cards, is, quite frankly, dishonest.
A Recap Of 2011
While researching this article, I came across a BBC report from April 2012, on the drought at that time. The full video can be seen on the link at the bottom, but the two screen shots below really sum up the story well.
As the presenter relates, the drought was caused by the prevalent jet stream, which had tended to leave the bulk of England under high pressure systems for much of the time.
Now fast forward to today and what has changed? As the BBC also tell us, the jet stream has shifted south, or more accurately east, pushing the highs into Eastern Europe, and bringing Atlantic lows instead.
The floods of 2012 have no more connection with global warming, than the droughts of 2011 did. Why does Slingo pretend otherwise?