Column 5 shows the daily value of the biogas as a substitute
for other fuels, assuming one tonne of weed processed per day.
Thus it is best to use the biogas to substitute for diesel,
petrol and kerosene. People who are using these fuels may be
able to pay the highest price. If there is electricity at a site,
biogas is less likely to be a suitable substitute - providing
the electricity supply is reliable and not subject to interruptions.
Calculations made in 1973 show that LPG (bottled gas) is also
a high price fuel, and biogas can profitably substitute for this
Biogas can be used in fuel cells to produce electricity.
This may well be the main use for biogas in the future.
Liquid fuels do have an advantage in that they can be used
as portable sources, whereas biogas will be tied to a pipeline.
Thus biogas might have to be sold at a slightly lower price to
attract people who would value portability. The use in vehicles
is possible but requires an investment in compressors and storage
tanks that is probably not appropriate for this project. Compressed
Natural Gas is being used for buses in some cities.
What is the future of oil prices?
The recent history of oil prices was a steady fall as new
sources were found and developed. A recent London Observer article
suggests there is a limit to this fall as oil is pumped faster
than new sources are discovered. Clearly there is a finite limit
to the amount of oil, but no-one knows what that is, nor when
it will have an effect on prices.
The Observer reported that oil production is expected to peak
between 2000 and 2005. Production would then begin to decline
while demand continued to increase. This suggests prices would
increase. This affects all pricing of solar-derived energy sources.
What it would mean for biogas in Uganda is that the value
of biogas can be tentatively projected to increase after world
oil production peaks - if it does. Its value for the national
economy increases if we enter a period of increasing oil prices
because it then becomes an important counter to inflationary
However, others have pointed out the limit to oil pumping
has been reported at intervals for many decades, and always the
limit has been exceeded as a result of new discoveries.
2004 The world oil price has jumped following the Iraq
war. Is this a permanent rise or will it fall again if more peaceful
conditions occur in the Middle East? At the present price (August
2004) biogas becomes a more attractive substitute for oil products
than in the recent past. Even more so in 2008 (see Peak Oil article).