AACIMP 2010 Summer School lecture by Alexander Makarenko. "Applied Mathematics" stream. "General Tasks and Problems of Modelling of Social Systems. Problems and Models in Sustainable Development"
AACIMP 2010 Summer School lecture by Alexander Makarenko. "Applied Mathematics" stream. "General Tasks and Problems of Modelling of Social Systems. Problems and Models in Sustainable Development" course. Part 1. More info at http://summerschool.ssa.org.ua
General Problems of
System Modelling &
Problems and Models
Professor Alexander S. MAKARENKO
Institute for Applied System Analysis at
National Technical University of Ukraine (KPI) , Kyiv, Ukraine,
Head of Applied Nonlinear Analysis Department
The lecture course is devoted to the description of
recent opportunities which are supplied by precise
physics, mathematics, synergetic, informatics etc. for
understanding of behavior, modeling and forecasting
of one of the most complex recent systems,
namely those which include humans and especially
large collections of peoples.
The examples are social, economical, political and
BLOCS OF LECTURES:
1. General description of social systems and
problems of their modeling.
2. Existing models and algorithms for social
3. Problem of sustainable development.
Formalization and modeling.
4. Recent and future problems in social systems
SCIENCES IN SOCIETY RESEARCH
*** More recent scientific disciplines (more
mathematical as usual !):
Physics, Theoretical Physics, Self-organization theory, Pure
mathematics, Biology, System Analysis, General systems
theory, Operational research, Information technologies,
Cybernetics, Neurophysiology, Complexity and information
theory, Evolution theory
** Classical Sciences:
Philosophy, Sociology, Politology, Demography, Art,
Archeology, Management sciences, Geography, Teology,
*** More recent scientific disciplines (more
mathematical as usual !) :
General systems theory,
Complexity and information theory,
The issues from system analysis:
holism (that is considering the system as the whole);
hierarchical levels in the system;
complexity of the system;
emergent of new properties;
evolutionary nature of the systems;
different space and time scales in the systems;
complex interaction between elements;
mentality accounting in analysis;
the goals, laws of evolution of the systems;
influence of environment;
stability and sustainable development;
different scenarios of development;
risks and dangers for system;
leverage points and bifurcations;
Time scales of social systems
Space scales of social systems
PECULARITIES OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS (1):
Firstly in complex system dynamic there exist some
global structures (for example formations or
The socio-technical system as the rule change in the
frame of such structures.
Secondly, alternation in elements state frequently is
determined by the influence of some environment.
This can be described by some mean field approach .
There are many interrelations between the elements of
complex systems (and not only in social but also in
PECULARITIES OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS (2):
There are many sub-processes in such system –
communicational, political, social, cultural and so on.
The system can go from one global structure to
another by two ways: evolutionary or by revolution.
Revolution can be described by fast rupture of bonds
and may be unpredictable.
Evolutionary way is long and demands patience.
Yet on such global level there are phenomena of life-
For example, the change of social formation may be
considered as the change of "patterns" in such
Branch of industry may be considered as union of
producers, consumers and mediators.
These relations have the same properties as the
subjects of global model:
The bonds are build evolutionary, all structure of
industry branch is rather stable,
COMPUTER COMPLEX FOR GEOPOLITICAL PROGNOZING AND MANY-
TEAM INTERNET TRAINING
FORMATION OF CITIES, MODEL OF ISOLATION OF HARMFUL
MANUFACTURES FOR LIMITS OF CITY
DEMOGRAPHYCAL AND MIGRATION MODELING WITH GIS
MULTIAGENT MODELING AND PROGNOZING OF MARKET PROCESSES
SOME METHODOLOGIES FOR RISK EVALUATION IN LARGE
HETEROGENEOUS TECHNICAL SYSTEMS
ANTICIPATORY AGENTS, SCENARIOS APPROACH IN DECISION-
MAKING AND SOME QUANTUM -MECHANICAL ANALOGIES.
SOCIAL INFORMATICS – NEW EDUCATIONAL DISCIPLINE
SYNERGETICS OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS
GIS (GEOINFORMATION SYSTEMS)
Main Classes of Models (1)
1. System Dynamics
2. Econometrical and algebraic
3. Discrete time models
4. Ordinary differential equations
5. Partial differential equations
6. Markov’s chains
7. Stochastic equations
8. Active Brownian particles