MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 14th February 2001
Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for Autumn 2001
Warmer in north and southeast
The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook shows that the above average temperatures experienced in the southeast during Summer, stand a good chance of persisting into Autumn. In the southeast, the chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures are about 55 to 65%, as they are also in a broad zone across northern Australia (see first map below).
This means that in years with climate patterns like the current, about 6 out of every 10 are warmer than the long-term Autumn median, whilst about 4 out of 10 are cooler. The chances are about 50:50 in other parts of the country.
The skill of the outlooks is moderate to high in Queensland and the north of the N.T. but low elsewhere.
The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures favours warmer than average nights across most of the country. The chances of this occurring reach 60 to 70% over the southern half of the country and also in eastern Queensland (see second map below). The outlooks have moderate skill in many parts of the country for Autumn.
For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:
Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527