“The results of the midterm forecasting model indicate that while Democrats have a real chance to buck the normal pattern of midterm elections and gain seats in the House of Representatives, they are unlikely to pick up the 17 seats that they would need to regain control of the chamber. That outcome would require a wave election like 2006 or 2010. But the 2014 midterm election is unlikely to be a wave election. It is much more likely to be a status quo election for the House of Representatives with one party or the other making a small gain and Republicans holding onto their majority.”
“Barring the emergence of a major national issue that results in a substantial advantage for one party or the other on the generic ballot, the seat swing in the 2014 House elections is likely to be fairly small. Nevertheless, the pattern of out-party gains in midterm elections is strong enough that, like Newt Gingrich in 1998, John Boehner may find his speakership in jeopardy if Democrats make even modest gains in the House elections.”
There’s an interesting article over at the VCOP that dovetails with this one; as I read this, I’m of two minds when it comes to predictions like this: (1)anything can happen in the world of American politics; a scandal could come along, a foreign policy crisis could erupt, anything could come along to completely upset the predictions above, and (2)it makes GOTV efforts that much more critical; unlike in presidential years, where turnout is a lot bigger, mid-term and off-year elections are often decided on turnout and whichever party can garner their supporters to the polls in greater numbers should have an advantage.