This winter the Obama administration offered the draft National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy, produced by federal, state and tribal representatives and coordinated with other climate change adaptation efforts at national, state and tribal levels. It provides a blueprint for effective steps that can be undertaken by the National Wildlife Refuge System, and other managers, over the next five to 10 years as part of the nations overall response to a changing climate.
Implementing consistent adaptation strategies throughout the Refuge System will be challenging, primarily because refuges are not experiencing climate change uniformly across the continent.
Some refuges, such as those in Alaska, already have seen massive biotic shifts. Warmer temperatures have boosted populations of the spruce bark beetle on the Kenai Peninsula. In turn, these pests have devastated four million acres of forest over a 15year period. Shifts in fire regimes and ecological function are of primary concern in these forests. Alaska also is experiencing unprecedented loss of glaciers, sea ice and permafrost. Each problem brings new adaptive management challenges.
Coastal refuges are on the front line of climate change adaptation implementation.
Acute sealevel rise has required immediate adaptive management using imperfect data today. Perhaps not surprising then, coastal refuges also face complex socioeconomic and political challenges that management decisions present to nearby coastal communities. Conflict tends to stem from differences in understanding of the science, the magnitude of habitat and infrastructure destruction, and the immediate need for progressive resource management decisions.
These management challenges are unlikely to diminish anytime soon. Over the past century, the Refuge System has invested millions of dollars in more than 180 coastal refuges. Challenges that require balancing conservation concerns with socioeconomic concerns will continue to arise at refuges in distinct and increasingly complex ways. It is then critically important to anticipate opportunities to engage partners, communities and stakeholders within the broad context of holistic coastal planning.
Perhaps the greatest challenges faced by the Refuge System in considering climate change adaptation will occur at inland refuges where impacts may be subtle or slower to resolve.
Managing for phenological and abiotic changes at landscape and hemispheric scales must become a hallmark of Refuge System planning. Phenological changes include disruption of predatorprey cycles, the timing of plant flowering, fruiting and budding, the shifted timing and patterns of migratory species that rely upon these habitat services, and increased incidence of invasive species, fire and wildlife diseases. Abiotic changes such as shifts in hydrological, precipitation and temperature regimes must be considered.
Thoughtful analysis of the interplay among these biotic and abiotic variables in our vulnerability assessments will facilitate more effective longterm comprehensive conservation planning. The Refuge System has proved its ability to plan competently for the five to 15year conservation span. However, planning into a 40 to 80year time frame is a different matter. We must improve our effectiveness at longrange planning now.
Climate adaptation planning crosscuts everything the Refuge System does. Understanding this, Conserving the Future implementation teams are thoughtfully embedding climate change considerations into all work plans. It is fortuitous that the strategy and Conserving the Future have been published in tandem. These two vision documents provide the basis for a critically important adaptation blueprint for the Refuge System.
In the words of late U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Director Sam Hamilton, we must act now, as if the future of fish and wildlife and people hangs in the balancefor indeed all indications are that it does.
John Schmerfeld is the Refuge Systems national climate coordinator. Information about the National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy is available at http://www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov.