10 things to watch on Super Tuesday
8) How many states produce a winner by majority, instead of plurality?
The fractured, multi-candidate GOP field has produced a string of plurality victories this cycle, with 40 percent tending to serve as the magic number given the divide among conservatives.Continue Reading
That is likely to change tonight in Massachusetts, where Romney is dominating in his home state, and in Virginia, where neither Gingrich nor Santorum is on the ballot and polls show Romney beating Paul by almost 50 points.
But will the majority effect be seen anywhere else? Romney would benefit from scoring more than 45 percent in any state where his victory wasn’t all but assured, since it would go a long way toward showing he is gradually moving different types of voters to his side.
9) Where do evangelical voters go?
Oklahoma and Tennessee are both conservative states with large evangelical populations, making them the likeliest to favor Santorum.
Yet Romney is going to have to start performing better with evangelical voters, or questions will persist about whether that important swath of the electorate will turn out in the fall. Many of these voters are deeply conservative, and they remain wary of Romney over issues like abortion.
There has been an assumption among political observers, one that has been hard to quantify, that lingering biases against Mormons have played a role in the failure of evangelical voters to embrace Romney.
It is extremely hard to gauge that effect, especially since few voters would admit such a thing to a pollster. But it remains the case that Romney’s Mormon faith, while helpful in some ways, may be a hindrance in others.
10) Will the turnout beat 2008 levels?
This is a lingering narrative, one that began in Iowa and has continued through much of the cycle so far— the reduced number of voters in some of the primaries and caucuses. A number of analysts have suggested it’s clear evidence of an enthusiasm gap — an idea that seems true in some states but not in others.
To some extent, comparing state-to-state voting numbers from four years ago is apples to oranges. There is a range of factors that can influence turnout in each state — for instance, down-ballot measures in Florida in 2008 were widely acknowledged to have played a role in juicing the numbers of voters that turned out. There were no such turnout-generators this time in the Sunshine State.
And even if voters don’t come out for a primary in which, polls show, most Republicans believe Romney is the ultimate nominee, they may view things differently once there is a head-to-head race with President Barack Obama in the fall.
Still, the turnout will be eyed closely in places like Ohio, where early voting is at about a third of the levels from 2008, and where in-fighting among top Republicans is believed to have turned off some voters.
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