|Wolfgang Böhmer (CDU), President of Sachsen-Anhalt|
After the election in Hamburg on 20 February, which has seen return to government SPD after a decade size in the second city in Germany after Berlin, the long election year in Germany meets its second meeting in land east of Saxony-Anhalt, where he will vote March 20.
The outgoing chairman is Wolfgang Böhmer (CDU), which holds a Grand Coalition CDU / SPD. This places the land neutral between the elements of the Bundesrat, in which the region has four MPs.
The Sachsen-Anhalt can be considered, noting its history, been a swing : elections held since the reunification of Germany have in fact seen the alternation of governments and presidents of different colors and compositions.
We have moved from a purely conservative black-yellow coalition of social democratic governments in the early years of children with and without the Grünen and the external support of the radical left, and back to conservative governments and finally the Grand Coalition today.
The Sachsen-Anhalt has a population of about 2.4 million people (almost 3% of the population of Germany), and with a GDP that is about 2% of the German Bundesrat and a weight equivalent to just under 6% of the total may be comparable to a region such as Sardinia and Friuli Venezia Giulia.
The last regional elections saw the CDU establish itself as the first party with 36% of the votes, followed by the link SPD by 24% and 21%. In
lander of the former GDR generally has less value to the conventio excludendum against Linke, which exists in the western regions of the country, and really the strength of Linke is likely to be the determining factor in the elections of March 20.
|Trend election in February 2011 in Saxony-Anhalt|
trends recorded by Infratest DIMAP in the month of February 2011 show the link as the second party of the land , as in 2006, but much closer to the CDU, ahead of six percentage points. At the same time, la SPD appare in ascesa e si trova a tre punti dalla Linke al 23%.
Le due forze di sinistra, che potrebbero contare anche sui Grünen dati al 7%, sarebbero quindi maggioritarie, ma i rapporti di forza tra i partiti escluderebbero un governo rosso-verde con appoggio esterno della Linke, e anzi richiederebbero espressamente che, in una coalizione rosso-rosso-verde, la scelta del presidente del land toccasse proprio alla formazione di La Fontaine, schieramento di maggioranza nella coalizione.
Ad Hamburg, valutando i risultati reali delle elezioni del 20 febbraio rispetto ai sondaggi della Infratest Dimap, si nota come la SPD sia stata sottostimata di circa 3 punti, e la Linke e la FDP di uno, mentre la CDU è stata sovrastimata of a point and two Grünen. If you want to apply similar margins of error in surveys available for Sachsen-Anhalt is seen as the values \u200b\u200bshowed a situation in reality is still very fluid and uncertain, especially given that it is now almost a month since the last survey.
|direct preferences for presidential candidates|
The option of a president Linke, as the graph of consensus candidates, however, seems distasteful to most voters of Sachsen-Ahnalt, despite the strength of the Linke election as a party, only a minority of 10% of voters vedrebbe di buon occhio un presidente appartenente a tale schieramento, segno di come la Linke non sia stata ancora del tutto metabolizzata nel sistema politico del land come forza di governo.
|Linke e comunismo nella percezione dell'elettorato|
Un particolare sondaggio condotto sempre dalla Infratest Dimap mostra infatti come per il 35% del campione elettorale tra gli obiettivi della Linke vi sia l'esplicito ritorno al regime comunista, cifra che diventa maggioranza assoluta tra gli elettori della CDU, ed è al di sopra del 30% anche tra i simpatizzanti degli altri partiti di centrosinistra.
The strength of the CDU and SPD is therefore highly probable that makes a repeat of the Grand Coalition 2006, with a chairman of the CDU and the exclusion from the government of Linke land.
In this scenario there would be no significant impact at national level, since the region would remain neutral between the elements of the Bundesrat.
The greatest threat for Merkel could come from a strengthening of the SPD: If you exceed the Social Link has become the first center-left party, the hypothesis of a red-red-green coalition led by SPD would be a viable alternative - if you look at the specific consent to presidential candidates for more welcome to the electorate - and even better for the SPD than the Grand Coalition : the passage of four elements of the Bundesrat from neutrality to opposition by the federal government would make an even more precarious government already tried the election and the scandal of Hamburg ' former Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, while the election results would certainly not negligible impacts in the next round, March 27 in Rheinland-Pfalz and Baden-Württemberg black stronghold.