today’s computerized climate models to events millions of years ago could tell
scientists about climate change in the Earth’s future, according to University
of Texas at Arlington Assistant Professor Arne Winguth.
research focuses on a period of climate change and mass extinctions at the
boundary of the Permian and Triassic periods, about 251.5 million years ago. At
that time, more than 70 percent of species on land and 95 percent of species in
the oceans became extinct. Many of the ocean species affected were
invertebrates such as the trilobites. On land, early amphibians and reptile
species died out.
have concluded that a rapid increase in carbon dioxide emissions and global
warming – possibly caused by increased volcanic activity - could have triggered
a very fascinating topic not only in respect to biology and evolutionary, but
also to the geochemical and climatic variations,” Winguth said. “That’s also
interesting looking to the future because we know that greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere increases every year. The Permian-Triassic
boundary is kind of an extreme scenario of what we can expect for the future.”
will present an abstract of his research this month at the Geological Society
of America’s 2011 Annual Meeting & Exposition in Minneapolis. The presentation,
called “Influence of cloud feedbacks on the end-Permian marine mass extinction,”
explores how ocean stagnation caused by global warming led to decreased
emissions of dimethyl sulfide and dimethyl disulfide into the atmosphere.
like microalgae and phytoplankton, which were less plentiful because of
stagnation, release dimethyl sulfide and dimethyl disulfide as biproducts. Computer
models run by Winguth and his coauthors show that less of those two sulfides
being released into the atmosphere can cause an optical thinning of clouds, or
decreased reflectivity, and significantly accelerate global warming by increasing
the absorption of the sun’s rays at the ground.
research is funded through a grant from the National Science Foundation. Such
work allows climatologists to test computerized climate models against known
geological history. That confirmation will help scientists better predict how
increases in temperature will affect life in the future, he said.
using the past climate to validate our theories,” he said.
presentation at the conference is part of a daylong session on the
on the abstract are Jeffrey Kiehl and Christine Shields, both of the National
Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. The research is a
collaborative project with the University of Cincinnati, Pennsylvania State
University, University of California, Riverside and Louisiana State University.
Harry Rowe, UT Arlington assistant professor of earth and environmental
science, is also a collaborator.
paper on Winguth’s research into the Permian-Triassic boundary mass extinction
was recently accepted for publication by the journal Geology, the publication
of the The Geological Society of America. Winguth’s wife, adjunct research professor
Cornelia Winguth, is the lead author on the paper called “Simulating
Permian–Triassic oceanic anoxia distribution: Implications for species
extinction and recovery.”
graduate students from the UT Arlington College of Science will also present
work at the Geological Society of America’s annual meeting Oct. 9-12. Their
topics include mapping of the Missouri River and methods for trace elemental
analysis of mineral deposits called speleothems. About 6,000 scientists are
expected to attend the conference.
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