Only a few towns received a downpour on Monday. However, with tropical moisture on the move from the Florida Straights and the Caribbean, chances that more communities of North-Central Florida will see afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be increasing through mid-week. The deepest of the moisture will likely stay just to our south on Tuesday, with only areas along and south of a Chiefland-Gainesville-Palatka seeing a few late-afternoon storms. But, all areas of North-Central Florida away from the coastlines will likely see thunderstorm activity on Wednesday through Friday.
The Set Up
An upper-level area of low pressure will develop across the Mid-South late Tuesday, and the counter-clockwise circulation around this feature will draw the deeper moisture northward by Wednesday. With the lack of much forcing at the surface or divergence aloft (in other words, no cold front or large-scale storm system), showers and thunderstorms will likely hold off until smaller features, such as the sea breeze, kicks them off. The higher moisture content of the atmosphere will produce more widespread and heavier precipitation at times. Weak upper-level winds will lead to slow-moving cells, creating a localized urban flooding threat where multiple storms hit the same areas.
Rainfall amounts over the next five days will likely vary greatly over small distances, all based on where the storms form each and every afternoon. It’s worth noting, however, that the inland areas of the state will likely see significantly higher amounts than the coastlines. This will largely be due to the sea breeze mergers that take place along the spine of the peninsula each afternoon. A general 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible across most areas of North-Central Florida, with locally higher or lower amounts possible.
This pattern is expected to be in place through Thursday, with rain chances possibly continuing at a high level through the weekend.