By James W. Hughes and Robert M. Goodman
Last year’s weather was a record-breaker in New Jersey: 2011 was the wettest year, with the wettest summer and the wettest month — August — ever.
At the same time, the state remained locked in its pattern of higher temperatures: Seven of the 10 warmest summers on record have occurred in the past 12 years and, in 2011, New Jersey experienced the third-warmest summer since 1895.
In addition, U.S. Geological Survey data indicate a decades-long trend of the increasing frequency of river flooding at such locations as the Trenton vicinity along the Delaware. And if this weren’t enough, storm surges resulted in coastal flooding as rates of sea-level rise increased by more than half since early in the 20th century — from 1.8 millimeters per year to 3 millimeters annually as the century drew to a close. That might not seem significant, but who can forget Gov. Chris Christie’s dramatic mandatory evacuation of Atlantic, Monmouth and Ocean counties’ Shore towns in anticipation of powerful Hurricane Irene?
So if you’re waiting for climate change to come to New Jersey, don’t. It’s begun.
Even the most conservative predictions indicate that the state can expect to see an additional 1-foot sea-level rise within the next 40 years. By the end of this century, sea-level rise will likely worsen the effects from storm surges such that the current 100-year flood-water level will be equivalent to the five-year flood level. And the state’s climate is predicted to become similar to the Carolinas, with more high-heat days and attendant increases in ozone, asthma cases, pollen and related allergies.
But New Jersey has begun to marshal its numerous resources to address the threat that would have devastating consequences for the state’s economy, natural resources, the health and safety of its residents and the extensive infrastructure system that delivers transportation, energy and clean water.
Rutgers University recently hosted a workshop to examine the climate’s “new normals” that bring to bear critical impacts to our quality of life and vital elements of the state’s economy. Business leaders, conservationists, developers, economists, farmers, local officials, policy makers and natural and social scientists heard compelling presentations about the potential impacts of climate change, most notably on agriculture, built infrastructure, coastal and river communities, natural resources and public health.
A common theme emerged: Environmental changes brought about by climate change will have significant short- and long-term economic consequences. The insurance company Allianz estimates New Jersey’s economic sensitivity to weather events is 8 to 10 percent of its gross state product. The state’s insured losses from Hurricane Irene alone are estimated at more than $750 million.
Joined by former Govs. Tom Kean and James Florio, participants focused on ensuring that New Jersey is prepared to address the worst climate change impacts under even the most conservative scenarios. Assuming the most aggressive efforts were under way to stall climate change, the best outcome might still be a 3- to 4-degree Fahrenheit increase in global surface-temperature. Under that scenario, New Jersey remains highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change as a densely populated coastal state, with aging infrastructure and housing stock.
What’s the bottom line?
To avoid a potential economic catastrophe, New Jersey must act now to prepare its residents, communities and infrastructure for more frequent extreme weather events, high-heat days, flooding and sea-level rise. As Rutgers moves forward with efforts to increase awareness and inform public policy through science, we invite New Jerseyans to join with us and other engaged stakeholders.
James W. Hughes is dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, and Robert M. Goodman is executive dean of agriculture and natural resources at the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, both at Rutgers University.