20th SD Polling Memo
January 16, 2006
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: PAUL GOODWIN
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research
RE: Polling in the 20th Senate District
A recent poll we conducted in the 20th State Senate District shows Councilman Alex Padilla with an initial lead over Assemblywoman Cindy Montanez (35% to 23%). The lead, based largely on Padilla’s initially higher name ID, dries up quickly once voters hear just a few words about Montanez .That lead is blown away once they hear about Padilla’s abundant negatives.
- After voters learn a small amount about both candidates, Montanez takes a lead with 44%, compared to 39% for Padilla. Montanez moves well ahead of Padilla once voters learn about his voting record, ethics violations, and links to scandal-ridden developers. In fact, Montanez closes the poll with a 21 point lead.
- Padilla’s share of the vote essentially does not change even when voters learn positive information about him, while Montanez’s vote surges as voters learn more about her.
- Voters find Montanez’s record and background very appealing, with unusually intense positive responses to her record on protecting education, children’s health, and the environment.
In short, Montanez moves quickly ahead in this poll because the voters in the western parts of the district, where both candidates are largely unknown, are much more likely to support Montanez.
This survey of 400 likely June 2006 Democratic and DTS voters was conducted between December 9 and 14, 2005. The margin of error for the study is plus or minus five percent.