Statistical Downscaling for the Pacific Northwest
Results for IPCC Fourth Assessment global climate model simulations
The Climate Impacts
Group has analyzed the climate response for the Pacific Northwest
simulated by several climate models. These simulations were prepared
by climate modeling centers worldwide for
the Fourth IPCC Assessement. For
consistency with prior work, we include the current versions of models
used previously: Hadcm3, Echam5, CCSM3, and PCM1 (CCSM3 is the
successor to both the NCAR CSM and DOE PCM). To these we added 5
additional models to better represent the range of models
participating in AR4. These are: CNRM_CM3, CSIRO_MK3 Miroc_3.2,
IPSL_CM4, CGCM_3.1, and GISS_ER. Summary statistics for these models
are provided in the link at the right.
From these, we have selected
- ECHAM5 SRES A2 simulation as the middle of the road senario
- IPSL_CM4 A2 as the highest warming scenario
- GISS_ER B1 as the lowest warming scenario
These models have been downscaled to daily 1/8-degree data for the
Pacific Northwest. Data coverage is indicated by the map at right,
which shows the downscaled distribution of precipitation for the
Daily and monthly-mean data may be downloaded here.
Eric Salathé's WWW Page
- E. P. Salathé Jr, P W Mote, M W Wiley, 2007:
Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States pacific northwest.
Int. J. of Climatology, In press.
Published on-line, 25 Jun 2007; DOI: 10.1002/joc.1540.
- E. P. Salathé Jr., 2006:
Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19820, doi:10.1029/2006GL026882.
- E. P. Salathé Jr.
Methods for selecting and downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modeling. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 419-436.
- E. P. Salathé Jr. 2003: The effect of various precipitation downscaling
methods on the simulation of streamflow in a rainshadow river basin,
Int. J. of Climatology, 23, 887-901.
- Widmann, M., C. S. Bretherton, and E. P. Salathe,
precipitation downscaling over the northwestern United States using
numerically simulated precipitation as a predictor.
J. Climate, 16, 799-816.