change and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
(This page is
based on chapter 14 of the book ‘Some Common Concerns’ –
please see the links on the publications
page for references etc)
Once in full
production, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline will transport
365 million barrels of oil. When burnt this will produce 160 million
tonnes of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) each year. This is:
- equal to
the pollution from every power station in the UK (163 million
- far more
than the pollution from every car, truck, bus and train in the
UK (125 million tonnes CO2)
- twice as
much as heating every house in the UK (89 million tonnes CO2).
impact of this project will dwarf the combined impacts of all UK
initiatives to combat climate change. The emissions from the oil
and gas coming through the pipelines would be more than twice the
emissions saved through the UK's 12.5% reduction under the Kyoto
Protocol (73,000 tonnes CO2) and ten times more than
the emissions saved through the UK's target of meeting 10% of electricity
demand from renewables (wind, sun, water power) by 2010.
change takes place
is changing. Human activities – particularly burning fossil fuels
but also to a lesser extent land-use changes, like deforestation
and intensive agriculture – have increased concentrations of carbon
dioxide (CO2), the most significant greenhouse gas, in
the Earth’s atmosphere. Greenhouse gases trap the sun’s radiation
in the atmosphere instead of letting it escape back into space,
thereby increasing global average temperature and changing the world’s
The 2001 report
of the world’s highest scientific authority on climate change, the
United Nations body known as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), is unequivocal: "There is new and stronger evidence
that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable
to human activities."
The panel predicts
that global warming will continue. According to its projections,
global temperature will increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 C against
1990 levels by 2100.The IPCC warns that this rate and level of change
is "very likely to be without precedent" during at least
the last 10,000 years.
already documented a wide range of impacts that are consistent with
global warming. These include changes in sea level, snow cover,
the extent of ice and rainfall, along with more persistent, frequent
and intense El Niño* weather events, coral reef bleaching,
and shifts in plant and animal habitats, some of which are likely
to result in extinctions. All these changes affect human beings,
for instance by affecting water supply, agriculture, infrastructure
and disease patterns.
Those least responsible for climate
change suffer its worst impacts.
According to the IPCC: "The
impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately upon
developing countries and the poor persons within all countries,
and thereby exacerbate inequities in health status and access
to adequate food, clean water and other resources." This
is because climate change will be more severe in tropical
and sub-tropical regions, where most developing countries
are located, and because poorer people are usually more vulnerable
in that they have fewer resources to protect themselves (because
of, for example, poorer health and nutrition, and limited
access to infrastructure and institutions).
Victims of climate change: floodwaters surrounding houses
in Dhaka, Bangladesh [DigitalVision]
How the BTC
pipeline will contribute to climate change
The fossil fuel
industry can be seen as part of a complex system that transfers
carbon from geological underground reserves, where it is safely
locked away, to the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming.
All the elements in this transfer system are important: the oil
or gas reservoir or coal mine, the terminal, the pipeline, the tanker,
the oil refinery, the gas distribution network, the petrol station,
the car or truck engine, the power station, the electricity grid
and the light bulb.
strata of the Caspian Region hold vast reserves of oil and gas.
According to BP, proven oil reserves in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan
already amount to 15 billion barrels.
continues and technology makes previously inaccessible reserves
accessible and affordable, increases in proven reserves are expected.
(BTC) oil pipeline will ensure that Caspian oil is burnt in the
car and truck engines and power plants of Western Europe and the
USA. Once burnt, the oil transported daily along the BTC pipeline
at a rate of one million barrels daily (when it is operating at
full capacity after 2008) will contribute 160 million tonnes of
CO2 to the atmosphere every year. This is equivalent
to nearly 30% of the UK’s CO2 emissions for 2000 (557
BTC pipeline system will play a key role in sustaining BP’s continued
growth in its rate of extraction of oil and gas – wherein each year
BP extracts more than it extracted the previous year. Despite
its claims to have reduced the climate impact of its own operations
(from emissions from its platforms, refineries and petrol stations),
BP is specifically aiming to sell ever more climate-altering products
– and building the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey (AGT) system would facilitate this contradiction.
versus renewables: the economics of climate change
to climate change lies both in reducing the amount of energy we
use, for instance by using public transport instead of cars, and
in the gradual replacement of fossil fuels with new renewable energy
sources, such as technologies that harness energy from the sun,
wind, waves and ocean currents, crops and agricultural waste products
(biomass), underground heat (geo-thermal energy) and small scale
hydropower. The prevalent approach of government and industry to
this technology substitution is emphatically a market-based one
whereby low-carbon technologies are expected to compete with high-carbon
ones and slowly take their place through consumer choices. If renewables
are to compete, their price relative to the price of conventional
forms of energy must therefore decrease.
of new fossil fuel reserves such as those in the Caspian keeps down
the price of fossil fuels by ensuring that they remain relatively
abundant on global energy markets. Thus, investment in fossil fuel
projects like AGT counteracts and undermines investment in renewable
energies and strangles their development which remain relatively
more expensive. Furthermore, when government funding agencies, such
as multilateral development banks and export credit agencies, support
projects like AGT, public money is clearly being used in a way that
only adds to climate change instead of supporting the transition
to a safe energy future. This is one of the reasons why many organisations
are increasingly calling on governments
and international institutions to stop using taxpayers’ money to
support fossil fuel projects.
dollars are already spent every year supporting private investment
in the global energy sector by multilateral development banks, like
the World Bank, and national export credit agencies, such as the
UK’s Export Credit Guarantee Department (ECGD). Instead of using
these funds to finance continuing fossil fuel dependency and technological
lock-in, taxpayers’ money could be used to support clean and renewable
sources of energy.
agencies supported upstream fossil fuel projects and fossil fuel
power projects in developing countries worth US$ 73.8 billion between
1995 and 1999 and only US$ 2 billion worth of renewable energy. Between 1996 and 2001 ECA-supported transactions of oil and gas developments totalled US$ 98 billion. The
World Bank has provided US$ 28 billion of fossil fuel financing
for upstream projects and power plants since 1992, leveraging billions
more in private funds. The frequency of approval of World Bank fossil fuel projects since 1992 stands at once every 14 days. Just as BP’s massive oil and gas exploration
activities make a mockery of their claim to be concerned about the
issue of climate change, so do government subsidies for such activities
make a mockery of their international climate commitments.
Like so many
fossil fuel projects in the past, the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey
pipelines have garnered support from a range of international
financial institutions, including the International Finance Corporation
and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. These
institutions are offering what BP’s Chief Executive referred to
as "free money", apparently ignoring communities around
the world who are extremely vulnerable to climate change.
The USA and
its impact on the climate
The USA consumes
more than one quarter of global oil production and is responsible
for one quarter of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions while accounting
for only 4.5 per cent of the world’s people. The current Bush administration
published its National Energy Policy in 2001, based on the findings
of the National Energy Policy Development Group led by Vice President
Dick Cheney. The Group advocated the construction of 1,300 to 1,900
new power plants over the next 20 years, or between one and two
power plants per week.
the document, "[US] prosperity and way of life are sustained
by energy use." According to President Bush, "the goals
of this strategy are clear: to ensure a steady supply of affordable
energy for America’s homes and businesses and industries."
The United States imports 52 per cent of its net oil requirements.
In this regard, the report recommends "that the President make
energy security a priority of [US] trade and foreign policy".
It is in light of these realities that we can understand the drive
behind US policy in the Caspian Region over the last decade – centred
around its support for western oil industry investment, and specifically
the BTC pipeline as the export route.
In March 2001,
even before publication of its energy policy, the Bush administration
rejected the Kyoto Protocol at the behest of supporters in the energy
sector and has since failed to come up with any plan for clear,
quantitative domestic emissions reductions; meanwhile, other countries
have used US inaction as an excuse to weaken their own efforts.
The world’s biggest polluter is still outside the agreement and
shows no sign of returning within the lifetime of the current government.
It is expected
that US carbon dioxide emissions will be 30 per cent above 1990
levels by 2012, instead of seven per cent below as agreed in Kyoto.
US per capita emissions are twice those of the EU, pointing to an
even more wasteful, fossil fuel-dependent lifestyle. If European
public money is used to support a pipeline whose output is sold
at least in part to the US, European taxpayers will be supporting
the energy profligacy of the US while it remains outside the Kyoto
The BTC pipeline
system and the future of the Earth’s climate
released into the atmosphere has a lifespan of 50+ years.
So, fossil fuels burnt today could contribute to global warming
for the next two centuries.
lifespan of the proposed AGT system is projected to be more than
40 years; thus the pipelines would be bringing oil and gas to the
world market until at least 2040.With this in mind, we can calculate
that the fossil fuel infrastructure that BP is currently working
to put in place would have an impact on the Earth’s climate throughout the 21st century and possibly beyond.
It is thus in
the realm of climate change that the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey pipelines
system would have its longest-lasting impact. This, the greatest
of all the pipeline’s environmental impacts and one of the greatest
of its social impacts, is not being adequately considered in BP’s
Environmental and Social Impact Assessment study.
*: ‘El Nino’
is a warmwater current that flows periodically along the coasts
of Ecuador and Peru. It is associated with a fluctuation of surface
pressure and circulation in the Indian and Pacific Oceans called
the El Niño Southern Oscillation. El Niño events affect
wind patterns, sea surface temperature and rainfall throughout the
Pacific region and even in other parts of the world.
on climate change
of the Earth International – climate campaign
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
– ‘Managing climate change’ – BP and Shell, and how they handle
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change