Asteroid 2012 DA14: Earth Impact in 2013?
An article has been appearing in blogs and at forums. It says, in part:
To avert a possible catastrophe – this time set for February 2013 – scientists suggest confronting asteroid 2012 DA14 with either paint or big guns. The stickler is that time has long run out to build a spaceship to carry out the operation.
NASA’s data shows the 60-meter asteroid, spotted by Spanish stargazers in February, will whistle by Earth in 11 months. Its trajectory will bring it within a hair’s breadth of our planet, raising fears of a possible collision.
The asteroid, known as DA14, will pass by our planet in February 2013 at a distance of under 27,000 km (16,700 miles). This is closer than the geosynchronous orbit of some satellites.
There is a possibility the asteroid will collide with Earth, but further calculation is required to estimate the potential threat and work out how to avert possible disaster, NASA expert Dr. David Dunham told students at Russia’s University of Electronics and Mathematics.
“The Earth’s gravitational field will alter the asteroid’s path significantly. Further scrupulous calculation is required to estimate the threat of collision,” said Dr. Dunham, as transcribed by Russia’s Izvestia. “The asteroid may break into dozens of small pieces, or several large lumps may split from it and burn up in the atmosphere. The type of the asteroid and its mineral structure can be determined by spectral analysis. This will help predict its behavior in the atmosphere and what should be done to prevent the potential threat,” said Dr. Dunham.
NASA’s official stance is that the asteroid is not a potential hazard until 2020. They have not hidden how close it will come in 2013. There seems to be differences in size estimates as well. NASA has it at 44m in diameter, RT says 60m. The general rule of thumb is that 50m or less will break up in the atmosphere, but larger will remain intact and is therefore more hazardous.
Reasons for ignoring this story:
- Last June 2011 MD came within 11,000 miles of Earth. 16,800 miles is still close, but closer asteroids have not struck us
- The story came from Russia, and possibly the message got muddled via transcription and translation
- Dunham has not published the information himself anywhere
- NASA would not neglect to include Earth’s gravity in their calculations. Perhaps Dunham has added gravity to an equation that already included it?