This post will be progressively updated to follow the late counting in the undecided seat of Capricornia.
Saturday 8pm. The LNP lead is now 1033 after a further 2269 pre-polls and 2068 absents. Unless something comes up, I’m no longer going to be following this one.
Friday 6pm. Just ordinary vote rechecking today, which has cost Labor 87 and putting the LNP lead at 711. Still no pre-polls counted, but they went against Labor in 2010 so there seems little chance of them winning from here.
Thursday evening. Labor copped a pasting on postal votes, 4839 of which have boosted the LNP by 935, turning a 141-vote lead into a 624-vote deficit. There are still about 3000 postals to come, which at this rate seem likely to put Labor out of business. Postals likewise went heavily against Labor in 2010, the difference this time being that the number of them looks set to increase from around 6000 to 8000. Labor can hope to do better from around 3000 absent votes, but 2000 oustanding pre-polls are likely to go against them.
Election night. The ABC computer has a 3.6% LNP swing against a Labor margin of 3.7%. Labor’s Peter Freeleagus leads 35485 to 35345, which aligns with the AEC’s result having him 0.1% ahead. One of the pre-poll voting centres has somehow reported two-party preferred but not the primary vote, but otherwise it looks like a completed election night count.