“Climate shuffle” likely to lead to increased warming
National action on climate change mitigation appears to be joining the international climate negotiations in the new and ever popular “climate shuffle” dance. It involves maximum effort and motion while staying in the same spot…or even, in some cases, going backwards.
Recent emissions trends and estimates of the effects of those policies in place and proposed lead to a new estimate that warming is likely to approach 4°C by 2100, significantly above the warming that would result from full implementation of the pledges (3.3°C). The continuous global fossil-fuel intensive development of the past decade suggests that high warming levels of 4°C are more plausible than assuming full implementation of current pledges. Evidence is ever increasing that existing and planned policies are not sufficient for countries to meet these pledges.