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Could we be carbon neutral by 2100?
What will the future look like? Shell doesn’t have a crystal ball, but for 40 years the company has used scenario planning to inform its long-term strategy and to make sense of the world around us. Last year, through its work with a large network of partners spanning government, NGOs, academia and industry, Shell published the New Lens Scenarios, which outlined two plausible visions of the future called Mountains and Oceans.
The mountains scenario predicts a strong role for government and the introduction of firm and far-reaching policy measures. These help to develop more compact cities and transform the global transport network. New policies unlock plentiful natural gas resources and accelerate carbon capture and storage technology, supporting a cleaner energy system.
Oceans describes a more prosperous and volatile world. Energy demand surges due to strong economic growth. Power is more widely distributed, rules are difficult to enforce and governments take longer to agree major decisions. Market forces rather than policies shape the energy system: oil and coal remain part of the energy mix but renewable energy also grows.