In a previous post, we discussed continued attempts to obfuscate the fact that operational infectious disease forecasting has been an operational reality for several years now.
There is a side note to the politics of bringing forecast capabilities into society, and that is case law precedent. Attached below are several examples of how case law brought into sharp focus the implications of accepting forecast capabilities as fact. These examples highlight famous examples of the intersection of meteorological forecasting and air flight safety.
The bottom line: failure to acknowledge forecasting that has been communicated to someone operating under liability carries risk. In the case of the airlines, failure to utilize forecasts... and someone dies because of it... meant they were liable.
In our case, let the world know the following is operational reality:
- Accurate forecast of increasing risk for infectious disease activity across a multitude of infectious diseases.
- Accurate forecast of antibiotic resistance to the level of the pathogen, antibiotic, and type of infection.
- Accurate forecast of societal interruption due to the impact of forecasted infectious disease activity.
As we continue to observe resistance to this concept, we are waiting for the day when the intersection of resistance and the preventable death or impairment of an individual occurs. This particular forecast is associated with high confidence. We have already encouraged patient awareness of these facts, as we have noted significant physician resistance to performing Standard of Care in consulting their local antibiograms.
While it is to the advantage of some to not be put in the position of having to respond to forecast information, and indeed may be considered a burden, it is nevertheless a sign of evolution of our society. As it was with meteorology, it is here with infectious disease: resistance to this operational reality will be overcome in time... one way or another.