When the monthly manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (M-PMIs and NM-PMIs) are released, we average them together for the US, the UK, and the EU. These series have the most history going back to the late 1990s.
The Super M-PMI fell every month since its most recent cyclical peak of 60.6 during February. It was down to 50.1 during July. That may be a harbinger of a global manufacturing recession. More likely is that it is a soft patch mainly attributable to the disruptions caused to global manufacturing by the shortage of Japanese parts following the March 11 earthquake. There was a mid-cycle slowdown during 2005, when the Super M-PMI dropped to a low of 48.7. It then recovered and remained above 50.0 during the final months of 2005 through early 2008. The Super NM-PMI remained relatively strong at 53.2 during July, though that was down from a recent peak of 57.2 during March.
The Super-Duper PMI, which averages the Super M-PMI and the Super NM-PMI, fell to