Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data and Test of Consistent Expectations: A New Likelihood Approach
AbstractIn this paper, we develop a likelihood approach for quantification of qualitative survey data on expectations and perceptions and we propose a new test for expectation consistency (unbiasedness). Our quantification scheme differs from existing methods primarily by using prior information (perhaps derived from economic theory or well established empirical relations) on the underlying process driving the variable of interest. To investigate the properties of our novel quantification scheme and to analyze the size and power properties of the new expectation consistency test, we perform Monte Carlo simulation studies. Overall, the simulation results are very encouraging and show that efficiency gains from including prior information can be substantial relative to existing quantification schemes. Finally, we provide an empirical illustration...
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by OECD Publishing,CIRET in its journal Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.
Volume (Year): 2004 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Qualitative Survey Data; Quantification Schemes; Test of Expectation Formation Hypothesis;
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- Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Quantifying Heterogeneous Survey Expectations: The Carlson-Parkin Method Revisited," Discussion Papers 13-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Marco Malgarini & Patrizia Margani & Bianca Maria Martelli, 2005.
"Re-engineering the ISAE manufacturing survey,"
ISAE Working Papers
47, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
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