The resurgence of Taliban is a cause of worry for India
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NEW DELHI: The trends of violence in Afghanistan and the spike in Taliban activity in Pakistan itself, despite Islamabad's attempts to buy peace in its tribal areas, have an ominous portent for India's security calculations as they point to a heightened risk of terrorism against Indian targets.
Through 2007, particularly in the second half of the year, a majority of the terrorist activity is focused primarily in eastern Afghanistan, near Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Afghanistan registered a 16% rise in the number of attacks in 2007 as compared to the previous year.
A majority of attacks, says a report prepared by the US National Counterterrorism Centre, were reported against the police. In as many as 43% of attacks, the target was the police with the perpetrators being completely unmindful of the collateral damage. Alongside, the number of kidnappings almost doubled as did targeting of foreign nationals.
In their most attention-grabbing snatch, Taliban kidnapped 23 South Korean Christian missionaries, killing two before negotiating the release of the rest.
An Italian journalist was also kidnapped and released while two Afghans who were also taken hostage were killed. In the second half of 2007, the number of attacks in FATA escalated and averaged nearly 100 a month and in most of these cases, civilians were the victims.
A rise in attacks conducted by FATA Sunni militants included a large number of "un-Islamic" targets including barber shops, video stores, music and CD stores in NWFP and FATA. This was apart from a 54% increase in ethnic violence all over Pakistan in 2007 while in the sensitive areas, there was sharp spike in "soft" targets like shops being targeted by armed extremists.
These statistical trends have held in 2008 as well and constitute a serious challenge to India's security. While Pakistan is reeling under the effects of its failed attempts to use both lucre and force against the Jihadi groups it has assiduously groomed since the war against the former Soviet Union in Afghanistan, a functional and nearly autonomous area controlled by Taliban and Al-Qaida is bound to be used by anti-India groups as well.
The use of Pakistan's border areas and increasing parts of Afghanistan by Islamic militants will give groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed the space and facilities to plan and mount attacks against India. This is apart from the bases and launching pads that exist in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. With the Jammu and Kashmir state elections due later this year, stepped up terrorist activity is a real threat.
In several terrorist incidents, including big strikes like 7/11, investigations have revealed that links of plotters lead to Pakistan with home-grown militants being sent for training to India's western neighbour. Afghan president Hamid Karzai has protested against the activities of Pakistan's covert agency ISI in his country, but the challenge he faces was underlined by the suicide attack on the Indian embassy.
Despite intense fighting in NWFP with Pakistan mobilisng 2,500 troops, 2007 ended with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, with the last two months of the year showing a 316% jump in attacks. The situation in Pakistan itself became grimmer with a 137% increase in attacks as compared to 2006 and even after a "peace agreement" with pro-Taliban tribes, FATA and NWFP saw a 54% rise in attacks.
India's worries have only increased since a civilian government which has Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif sharing power took office and Pervez Musharraf finally shed his uniform. The powers of the government remain tenuous and prone to internal strain.
The Army remains the principal power pole while the civilian government has called for a re-think on the war against terror. All this means that there is no one clearly in-charge as was the case when Musharraf was calling the shots more or less by himself.
The dangerous vacuum meant that action against Islamic militants is likely to flounder. As it is, sections of the Army are not too enthused about it. The popular opinion is opposed to a war that is seen as being fought at the behest of America. There has been a renewed militant onslaught after the operation to clear Lal Masjid in July last year.
In 2008, the deaths due to terrorist activities stood at Iraq (13,606), followed by Afghanistan (1,966), Pakistan (1,335) and India (1,093).
Other nations hard-hit by terrorism in the region are Thailand with 859 deaths, Somalia with 767 and Sudan with 403. In South Asia, Pakistan's inability to control the Taliban means it will be increasing unable to honour commitments to reign in terrorists — even if the Army were to agree to such a course of action.