Updated Delegate Math: What Each Needs
Chris Bowers at Open Left has been numbers-crunching:
Obama needs 471.5 of the 875 remaining delegates, or 53.9%, in order to reach the magic number.
Clinton needs even more, 489.5 of 875, or 56.0%. Both scenarios are extremely unlikely.
Those numbers are very close to each other. Put another way, Hillary is only 18 delegates behind Obama in the race for the next 875.
Chris then makes predictions. But they all start with his (probably educated)guess that the credentials committee will refuse to seat MI and FL because it will have more Obama supporters than Hillary supporters on it. But these committee members like superdelegates can change their support at any time, and not all of them have declared, so I'm not prepared to agree with that. That said, here's how Chris sees it playing out:
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