Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice
Article first published online: 21 SEP 2011
Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 38, Issue 18, 28 September 2011
How to Cite
2011), Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L18503, doi:10.1029/2011GL048807., , and (
- Issue published online: 21 SEP 2011
- Article first published online: 21 SEP 2011
- Manuscript Accepted: 19 AUG 2011
- Manuscript Revised: 17 AUG 2011
- Manuscript Received: 6 JUL 2011
- sea ice
 The recent sharp decline in Arctic sea ice has triggered an increase in the interest of Arctic sea ice predictability, not least driven by the potential of significant human industrial activity in the region. In this study we quantify how long Arctic sea ice predictability is dominated by dependence on its initial conditions versus dependence on its secular decline in a state-of-the-art global circulation model (GCM) under a ‘perfect model’ assumption. We demonstrate initial-value predictability of pan-Arctic sea ice area is continuous for 1–2 years, after which predictability is intermittent in the 2–4 year range. Predictability of area at these longer lead times is associated with strong area-thickness coupling in the summer season. Initial-value predictability of pan-Arctic sea ice volume is significant continuously for 3–4 years, after which time predictability from secular trends dominates. Thus we conclude predictability of Arctic sea ice beyond 3 years is dominated by climate forcing rather than initial conditions. Additionally, we find that forecast of summer conditions are equally good from the previous September or January initial conditions.