polls are not 100% accurate, but I don't recall one ever being that far off. Dems could have found a way to rally and push Cantor out. It would make sense, despite how strong the next guy may be the system is rigged for incumbents and that goes along way to evening the playing field. You feel pretty solid that it will go to the Rs, but then Eric Cantor felt pretty confident that he would win reelection also. Don't be surprised if something unexpected happens election day.