orgtheory poll: iowa caucus prediction
The GOP caucus is on Tuesday. You will win nothing but honor for a correct guess. Nate Silver raises some interesting points about Iowa. In the GOP caucus, according to political scientists, moderates under perform their poll numbers while conservatives over perform. Makes sense. The caucus is a high commitment political act, which favors intense activists. If you believed in polls “as is,” expect a Romney win. But if you weight by ideology, then someone like Paul might win. But, according to polls, Paul is dropping while Santorum is picking up a little, possibly robbing Paul of the win that a more hard core conservative might normally get in this contest.
UPDATE: As of 2pm EST, the orgtheory readers rank Romney > Paul > Felin > Santorum. Check in late this evening for an update.