We noted yesterday aviation’s uphill battle to replace tradititional—and increasingly expensive—jet fuel with alternative fuels. Today, Airbus and Honeywell announced a new project to provide one-third of aviation’s fuel needs by 2030 using second-generation biofuels made from things like vegetable biomass and algae.
The problem is, even if the Airbus plan works exactly as expected, it won’t make a difference in terms of aviation’s emissions problem.
Commercial aviation doesn’t just grow in lockstep with the economy—it’s traditionally grown about twice as fast as gross domestic product. Global aviation passenger growth rates now are about 5%, despite economic storm clouds, the International Air Transport Association says. Countries like China, India, and Brazil have discovered low-cost carriers and the joys of visiting mothers-in-law on the cheap. The upshot? Many experts expect that global passenger numbers will triple by 2030, when Airbus will unveil its new brew.
Even if companies like Airbus and Boeing come good on their other promises and actually deliver more fuel-efficient aircraft, that kind of growth is going to be reflected in the fuel tanks. Today, aviation uses about 5 million barrels a day of jet kerosene. Assume healthy efficiency gains, and you could still see 12 million barrels a day of jet kero on the tarmac in 2030.
So what would the Airbus algae formula do? Substitute one-third of that, or 4 million. That leaves 8 million barrels a day of old-fashioned kerosene contrails in the sky—almost twice as much as today.
That’s one reason climate-change scientists and other academics are increasingly fretting over aviation’s current exemption from climate laws, like in Europe. Unfettered growth of aviation—undoubtedly great for the economy—is simply incompatible with curbing economy-wide emissions, a lot of scientists say. In the U.K., where aviation plays a crucial economic role thanks to Heathrow Airport, aviation alone could account for the whole country’s emission allowances by 2050.