What's DECC's plan on gas?
- 26 Jul 2012, 15:00
- Robin Webster
Amidst the reaction to the government's announcement of
renewables subsidies yesterday, there was some confusion about the
accompanying statement of support for gas power - both over what
DECC is proposing, and what it means for greenhouse gas
Energy secretary Ed Davey argued modelling from the Department
for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) shows we can burn significant
amounts of gas and still hit our climate targets. But when we
asked, it emerged that DECC has not published the relevant
scenarios, and isn't going to.
DECC's press release, in which it announced new levels of
renewable subsidy and made a statement of support for gas power,
"The Government … is today confirming
that it sees gas continuing to play an important part in the energy
mix well into and beyond 2030, while meeting our carbon
The phrase "well into and beyond 2030" is vague, but suggests to
us that DECC believes gas can have a significant role well into the
2030s without exceeding the UK's carbon budgets.
Is that right?
2050 targets, 2030 targets
Carbon budgets are ultimately derived from the Climate Change
Act, which commits the UK to cutting carbon emissions 80% by 2050.
In order to achieve this, government advisors the Committee on
Climate Change (CCC) say the way we produce power will have to be
"virtually decarbonised" by 2030.
This assessment has never been endorsed by government in the
form of a firm target, although the Energy and Climate Change (ECC)
supports the idea and
Ed Davey says that it is still up for discussion.
2030 decarbonisation would require the carbon-intensity of the
electricity we use to fall over the next 18 years from where it is
today - with about 500 g of carbon dioxide produced per
kilowatt-hour of electricity - to just a tenth of that, or 50 g per
The average carbon intensity of gas is about 405g/Kwh -
indicating that there is a limited space for the use of gas power
in 2030. But there are ways of using gas as a power source that
results in lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Gas could be
used just as a backup renewables, so the power plant are not needed
all of the time. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology could
also be fitted to gas power plant to reduce their greenhouse gas
Are either of these options underpinning DECC's analysis? The
press release says
"We do not expect the role of gas to be
restricted to providing back up to renewables"
So we are talking about a more substantive use of gas power.
"...in the longer term we see an
important role for gas with CCS."
So is this predicated on CCS saving the day?
Doing our homework
We suggested to the Energy Secretary yesterday that in the light
of the CCC's detailed work on energy scenarios, the government's
announcement on gas and its support for climate change targets
might be somewhat contradictory.
In response, Davey argued that modelling in
DECC's Carbon Plan shows significant amounts of gas can be
burnt without busting our carbon budgets, and a DECC official added
"Between 10 and 20 GW of unabated gas is
consistent with substantial decarbonisation of the power sector by
2030 and there are a number of scenarios you could work around
Davey also told us:
"If you've not looked at our Carbon
Plan, you haven't done your homework!"
We dutifully turned to
DECC's Carbon Plan, released last December. But it doesn't
appear to contain any detailed modelling. We followed up with DECC,
"The scenarios that you mentioned have
never actually been published, and we don't plan to now."
Instead, we were directed to page 82 of the plan, which states
"Government modelling suggests that
unabated gas could retain a significant role in electricity
generation through the 2020s, potentially still producing up to two
thirds of today's generation levels in 2030"
So if you were hoping for a reassuring answer on how unabated
gas can play an 'important' role in a decarbonised power sector,
there isn't one here. Indeed, DECC itself - in the same report -
"From 2030 onwards, a major role for gas
as a baseload source of electricity is only realistic with large
numbers of gas CCS plants."
...which appears to be at odds with yesterday's announcement
that the government "does not expect the role of gas to be
restricted to providing back up to renewables" - although
admittedly that statement doesn't give us any idea of timeline. It
would also seem to require a much stronger commitment to CCS
technology than the vague statement that the government sees a role
for CCS "in the longer term".
It's worth noting here that the difficulty is the vagueness of
the terms being used: gas will play an "important part in the
energy mix", or a "significant role", or comparing "by 2030" with
"well into and beyond 2030", or pondering the meaning of "an
important role for … CCS". There just isn't enough detail to be
convinced that government has a plan.
Where next for gas policy?
MPs are due to debate the Energy Bill - which does not have a
2030 target in it, but may have one inserted - later this year. The
government is also due to produce a
Gas Generation Strategy in the Autumn. Perhaps by then more
detail will be available about what the future for gas actually