China and India agreed Oct. 22 to coordinate their efforts on climate change. The two countries are at one in holding developed countries responsible for taking the lead in cutting emissions. As the largest carbon emitter, China is being watched particularly closely in the approach to the December Copenhagen summit on climate change to see what position it will adopt.
China’s carbon emissions are said to have surpassed those of the U.S. in 2007, making it the world’s largest contributing country and a key participant at the U.N. Climate Summit in Copenhagen this December:
–On Sept. 22, President Hu Jintao said China would cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of GDP by a “notable margin” by 2020. This has raised expectations that China might make a commitment to mandatory emissions cuts.
–On Oct. 14, Vice Premier Li Keqiang stressed the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities,” which replicated the standard position on climate change from the mid-1990s.
Entering into a five-year agreement yesterday, China and India are making common cause on climate change, which will add to the weight developing countries will have at Copenhagen. The two sides maintain that:
–developed countries carry primary responsibility for cutting emissions;
–caps should not be imposed, because development is their priority; and
–developed countries should provide financial and technological resources to industrializing countries to help them control emissions.
China’s environment is plagued by many problems, and today’s leadership sees its recent economic growth model as unsustainable. Whatever happens at Copenhagen, China will move forward on emissions control:
–The 2005-2010 Five Year Plan has a 20% energy intensity reduction target. However, the government often does not meet targets. There are also questions about China’s ability to monitor and record gas emissions.
–Polices will focus on conservation, decreasing coal use and increasing efficiency of coal power generation, ensuring oil and natural gas supplies, expanding hydro and nuclear power and increasing the share of biomass, wind, solar, geothermal and tidal energy to 15% of total energy by 2020. Coal-bed methane projects are expected to proceed more modestly, while carbon sequestration so far has not proved to be successful.
–China is advocating development of low-energy lights, coal gasification and electric automobiles, as well as a high-speed rail system. Still, at this stage, stimulating the economy comes first and green considerations are secondary. The growth of such competitive industries may reduce the willingness of developed countries to cooperate with China.
–Despite progress, China needs to bring energy pricing into line with the environmental costs of emission damage. Raising prices to reduce damage without causing social unrest may be difficult, but will be necessary to achieve emissions reductions.
–China’s speed at installing and developing green technology is impressive but may not be fast enough to avert a huge increase in carbon emissions. The country could still account for half of world CO2 emission growth up to 2030.
Beijing can make a strong case at Copenhagen not to have to take the lead on emissions without considerable commitments from developed countries, but it wants to undertake serious negotiations at the summit. While China’s ability to do more than control emissions in the next few decades is doubtful, it can be expected to take unilateral steps to slow the growth of carbon emissions, even if the Copenhagen summit is a failure.
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