Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models
- Absolute Risk Prediction Models
- Gene Carrier Status Risk Prediction Models
- Risk Prediction Models of People at High Risk
The following risk prediction models are intended primarily for research use and have been peer-reviewed, meaning the methodology and results of these models have been evaluated by qualified scientists and clinicians and published in scientific and medical journals.
Absolute Risk Prediction Models
Absolute cancer risk is the probability that an individual with given risk factors and a given age will develop cancer over a defined period of time. Examples of these risk factors include race, age, sex, genetics, body mass index, family history of cancer, history of tobacco use, use of aspirin and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDS), physical activity, use of hormone replacement therapy, reproductive factors, history of cancer screening, and dietary factors.
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk. These types of models also will be useful for designing future chemoprevention and screening intervention trials in individuals at high risk of specific cancers in the general population.
- Zhao D, Weng C. Combining PubMed knowledge and EHR data to develop a weighted bayesian network for pancreatic cancer prediction. J Biomed Inform. Oct 2011;44(5):859-868.
Gene Carrier Status Risk Prediction Models
These models estimate the likelihood of detecting a mutation in a cancer susceptibility gene (e.g., BRCA1 and BRCA2) in a given family or individual.
- Wang W, Chen S, Brune KA, Hruban RH, Parmigiani G, Klein AP. PancPRO: Risk Assessment for Individuals with a Family History of Pancreatic Cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2007;25:1417-22.
Risk Prediction Models of People at High Risk
- Cai QC, Chen Y, Xiao Y, et al. A prediction rule for estimating pancreatic cancer risk in chronic pancreatitis patients with focal pancreatic mass lesions with prior negative EUS-FNA cytology. Scandinavian Journal of Gastroenterology. Apr 2011;46(4):464-470.