Batsman Pietersen, sacked by England in February 2014, is considering returning to English county cricket in an attempt to win an international recall.
Surrey are the favourites among the six counties who are keen on signing the 34-year-old.
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"It's not more than a 10% chance he'll play for England," Vaughan told BBC Radio 5 live.
"He's had fall-outs with the coach, he's had fall-outs with the managing director, he has fallen out with Alastair Cook, the captain.
"It's a long shot, particularly with this management.
"But if there is a bit of change, if he is scoring double centuries for Surrey and England continue to play badly, that drum will be getting beaten very loud."
Pietersen, who scored 8,181 runs in 104 Tests for England, released an autobiography in October in which he criticised England players and senior England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) figures.
National selector James Whitaker said at the time that there was "no way" Pietersen would return to the England team.
However, Colin Graves, who will succeed Giles Clarke as ECB chairman in May, said in March that the selectors "can't ignore" Pietersen if he "scores a lot of runs" for a county.
Vaughan, who captained England in 51 of his 82 Tests, told Test Match Special: "The carrot has been dangled. It's a tiny carrot.
"But there's quite a bit to go between playing for Surrey again and playing for England again.
"Cricket isn't getting many column inches in England - it would get plenty if he came back.
"If I was a selector, I wouldn't rule out his return."
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Pietersen has said he "absolutely" could work again with current England coach Peter Moores, despite the "irretrievable breakdown" of their relationship in 2009 which saw Pietersen quit after three games as captain.
If Pietersen, who is currently working as a broadcaster at the World Cup, is to play the full English domestic season, which starts on 19 April, he must be released from his Indian Premier League contract with Sunrisers Hyderabad.
Coach Tom Moody has approved his release, a decision which is expected to be finalised by the IPL on Wednesday.
England, who were knocked out of the World Cup in the first round, start a three-Test tour of the West Indies next month, and host New Zealand in two Tests starting on 21 May.
Since being sacked by England, Pietersen has had stints in the Australian Big Bash and Caribbean Premier League, but has not played domestic first-class cricket since June 2013.
As well as his £205,000 contract with Hyderabad, he is again scheduled to play for St Lucia Zouks in the Caribbean Premier League in June and July.
There is only a "10% chance" of Kevin Pietersen playing for England again, says former captain Michael Vaughan.