We make no change to our AUD 31 fair value estimate for wide-moat ANZ Group ANZ following a brief third-quarter update. Highlights include above-market lending volume growth, a strong capital position, and a moderate rise in loan book stress. As is usual for ANZ Group, the third-quarter trading update made no mention of net interest margin. With peers noting margin softness from intense home loan competition and customers switching to term deposits, the stronger loan growth for ANZ suggests weaker margins from greater discounting and cash-back offers. Our fiscal 2023 NIM forecast of 1.7% is a 6-basis-point increase on fiscal 2022, less than the 10-basis-point uplift we assume for National Australia Bank. While stress is growing among borrowers, it remains low compared with history. Australian housing 90-day arrears increased 3 basis points to 60 basis points.