"Gates was great at Microsoft when Microsoft was the dominant player." Even Gates, Materne warns, would face challenges. Analysts and Harford agree that Ballmer's position at Microsoft is well established, and he remains a close friend of Gates. It's most probably, they say, that Ballmer stays in charge as the company brings its new products to bear in 2012 and beyond, at least until Ballmer turns 60 in 2016. A Microsoft spokesman noted the company does not have a fixed retirement age and that the company does have a succession plan in place but would not provide details. (He declined to comment on a Gates return to the company.) Insider Steven Sinofsky, who heads up Windows, might be the company's best bet for a high-profile scion — "he even wears the black turtlenecks," Maguire notes. Harford says that whenever the succession is, it will differ greatly from when Gates unilaterally passed control to his buddy Ballmer, as the board will have a much greater say.