The Baa2 rating incorporates a one-notch uplift from Fortum's standalone credit quality, expressed as a Baseline Credit Assessment of baa3, based on Moody's assessment of moderate support and moderate dependence. Moody's assumption of moderate support takes account of the Finnish government's track record of being steadfastly non-interventionist, whilst positively recognizing the government's commitment to own a majority shareholding in Fortum.FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGSUpward pressure on the ratings is currently not anticipated in view of the negative outlook. The outlook could be stabilised should geopolitical tensions ease allowing for Fortum to continue to benefit from stable cash flow out of Russia.