Needham lowered the firm's price target on Onto Innovation (ONTO) to $220 from $230 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm also names the stock its Top Pick in Semi Equipment for 2025 while adding it to its Conviction List, replacing Cadence Design ( CDNS ). Needham sees 2025 as likely the peak WFE, saying the current semiconductor upcycle "will be lukewarm," and the next downturn could hit in the second half of 2026. The firm also contends that AI remains the singular strength area for semis over the next two years, adding that Onto – which has the highest exposure to TSMC ( TSM ) CoWoS and a decent exposure to HBM packaging -stands to gain due to its idiosyncratic strength in advanced packaging and its lack of China exposure after its involuntary exit from that market.