In 2022, Third Point expects the company's energy transition businesses (LNG, Renewables and Marketing) to generate EBITDA of over $25 billion with sustaining capex of only $5 billion. These businesses account for just over 40% of Shell's EBITDA but would likely support Shell's entire enterprise value if they were a stand-alone company, while he believes investors are getting the remaining ~60% of EBITDA (upstream, refining and chemicals) for free at the current stock price. Moreover, Shell management has been gradually divesting assets that are not aligned with a low-carbon future, such as upstream and refining and reduced its ownership from 54 refineries in 2004 to only 5 (by year-end). Shell's massive dividend cut and other asset sales (e.g. Permian) have left it with an under-levered balance sheet with year-end 2021 net debt to EBITDA of well below 1x. This positions Shell to return capital earlier and more aggressively.