For commodity producers like Century Aluminum (CENX) and South32 (S32), the macro outlook is equally if not more important than the company's relative position in the industry. Commodity producers' earnings are sensitive to underlying commodity prices—something they don't have much control over. Being a pure-play aluminum producer (XME), Alcoa's performance is driven by aluminum market dynamics. In this series, we'll see what Alcoa had to say about the aluminum industry's 2018 outlook during its 4Q17 earnings call. Let's start by analyzing what Alcoa projects for the 2018 aluminum demand-supply dynamics.