For instance, credit quality can be tough to gauge through year-over-year comparisons, because deterioration or improvement is more closely connected to economic conditions as opposed to earnings cyclicality. But in that respect, J.P. Morgan Chase didn't do so hot on that front, either, saying nonperforming assets, those that are past due but have not been charged off yet, jumped 16%, a noticeable spike for a bank that has managed to balance a leading role in syndicated lending with a mostly pristine balance sheet to date. Shanley points out that J.P. Morgan Chase tried to put an "upbeat spin" on its results by noting that most of the commercial credit problems were a result of "fallen angels," a reference to former investment grade companies, as opposed to a change in its risk outlook. "But whatever the source, it may be premature to conclude the credit cycle has already hit bottom ," Shanley says.