But Richard Ciccarone, senior vice president and manager of fixed-income research at Kemper Capital Markets, said there are "enough reasons out there to justify a ratings downgrade." Mr. Ciccarone pointed to a growing negative unreserved balance, as reported on a generally accepted accounting principles basis, that he said could reach $1.5 billion in fiscal 1991, and to a cash balance system that allows the state to bolster its cushion by "holding back bills." He added that the state's use of so-called lapse-period spending to delay its fiscal 1991 bill payments into fiscal 1992 was also a negative factor for the rating. The state comptroller's office estimated that lapse-period spending will exceed $800 million. On Aug. 2, Standard & Poor's Corp. downgraded $4.2 billion of the state's GO debt to AA from AA-plus, citing "significantly weakened financial operations and position during the past two fiscal years."