Valuation hinges on three scenarios. In the bull case, QuantumScape emerges as a dominant player, scaling to 1,500 GWh of capacity by 2045 and earning $13 per kWh—yielding massive upside. In the base case, QuantumScape still succeeds but faces strong competition, leading to more modest adoption at 500 GWh and $6 per kWh. The bear case assumes commercial failure, but recognizes residual value in the company's IP and $3 billion of R&D spent to date. When assigning probabilities to each scenario, the current market price around $3.70 implies that QuantumScape is priced for failure, assuming a sub-20% chance of success while its competition is given over 70% odds. This disconnect, in the eyes of the author, makes the stock a deeply asymmetric investment. If one simply assumes even odds of success between QuantumScape and competitors, the stock could be worth approximately $28.