Figure 9 compares the firm's implied future NOPAT to its historical NOPAT in this scenario. This worst-case scenario implies Bloomin Brands' NOPAT eight years from now will be 22% below its 2019 NOPAT. In other words, this scenario implies that a decade after the COVID-19 pandemic, Bloomin Brands' profits will have only recovered to just 1% above 2017 NOPAT levels – the lowest levels since the firm's IPO in 2012 and prior to the closure of underperforming restaurants. In any scenario better than this one, BLMN holds significant upside potential, as I'll show below.