However, the company would actually be generating a lot of excess cash flow, which it could use to grow production, pay down debt, and/or increase shareholder distributions. Deflation takes time One of the reasons why ConocoPhillips isn't yet at a $8 billion capex number for flat production is because there is a lag between falling oil prices and falling costs. This is noted on the next slide, which shows the lag of deflation across the company's cost drivers. Source: ConocoPhillips Investor Presentation.