DoorDash's entire business model is built on the faulty assumption that it can profitably defend its market position after it wins significant market share. DoorDash currently has ~16% of its TAM, but its current valuation (using the same assumptions as my Danger Zone report here ) implies the firm will generate $59.4 billion in revenue in 2030. At its TTM take rate, this scenario equates to ~$514 billion in marketplace gross order volume for DoorDash in 2030. For reference, UBS estimates the global food delivery market will be worth $365 billion in 2030, which means the market expects DoorDash to take 141% of its TAM by 2030. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario.