The debt level of Pakistan – whose foreign currency reserves have dropped to the critical level of around one and a half months of import cover – is expected to swell with weak repayment capacity. The grave situation may convince the agency to downgrade the rating. At present, Moody's maintains "B3 negative" credit rating for Pakistan. "The negative outlook is primarily driven by heightened external vulnerability risk. A further deterioration in Pakistan's external position, including a more pronounced erosion of foreign reserve buffers, which would threaten the government's external repayment capacity and heighten liquidity risks further, would likely result in a downgrade of the rating," Moody's said in its annual credit analysis of Pakistan. The report said, "Expectations that government debt would continue to rise markedly, with a related deterioration in debt affordability from already weak levels, could also lead to a rating downgrade."