Moody's estimates that Turkish corporate, banking and government sectors need to repay approximately $156bn in external liabilities this year, and together with the current account deficit, this amounts to an estimated 26% of GDP in 2016 and in 2017. This large external funding need exposes the country to sudden shifts in investor confidence, according to the rating agency. Relentlessly bullish Tim Ash at Nomura downplays such fears. "Turkey downgrade – what downgrade?" asked Ash when the markets recovered from Monday's volatility and the Treasury's debt auctions saw strong demand. "Ok, fortunate this all happened in a liquid EM market, but still...Turkey is proving durable." The real story is how limited the sell-off has been, according to Ash. "Many investors have been waiting for the downgrade to create value to buy back into Turkey - so these same investors don't see fundamental and systemic risk in Turkey or much less so than Moody's evidently," Ash said in an emailed commentary on September 26.