There are lots of reasons why BHP's Samarco experience is different to BP's Gulf of Mexico shame, not least because the Gulf of Mexico was a more financially important region for BP than Samarco is for BHP. But nor is the incident entirely irrelevant for BHP investors. Mr Wilkins warned that there could be more asset impairments to come for BHP's US shale division, but said he believed BHP could defend its progressive dividend. "In the case of BHP under spot and a 10 per cent commodity price downside we think the company can defend its dividend for the next three years with an increase in gearing or cutting capex further." Citi's target price for BHP shares is $22.