Given that the number is net of the $600 million-plus refunds both companies would receive if the licences weren't renewed it points to a bonanza for the state's coffers from re-tendering the licences. It also suggests the chances of the incumbents retaining their licences are quite high, given that the sheer size of the payments would deter most aspiring new players, who would also face sizeable costs in either acquiring their machines and supporting infrastructure from one of the existing players or replicating their networks from scratch. While that conclusion might tend to undermine the Tabcorp argument that Unitab shareholders would be exposed to much greater renewal risk if their company merges with Tatts — the leverage to the licences being renewed would work in their favour — it also, however, underscores the reality that the renewal isn't costless and that the value of Tatts and the earnings statistics of a merged Tatts/Unitab is sensitive to increases or decreases in the cost of renewal.