The short term ranking of Morgan Stanley relative to its peers is higher because business conditions are so good currently that they rank at the 90th percentile for the period from 1990 to the present. The strong corporate business conditions drive the default probabilities of all firms to low levels. Over a longer time horizon, Morgan Stanley ranks in the safest one-third of its peer group from a credit risk perspective. Taking still another view, the actual and statistically predicted Morgan Stanley credit ratings both show a rating in the "investment grade" territory. The statistically predicted rating is 2 notches below the legacy rating from firms like the Standard & Poor's affiliate of McGraw-Hill (MHFI) and Moody's Investors Service (MCO). The legacy ratings of the company have changed only 4 times in the last decade, in spite of the need for the U.S. government to inject $10 billion of capital into the firm.