The $0.31 that separates Sirius XM from a stay of exchange execution, barring a reverse split, doesn't seem like much. But on this minuscule penny-stock scale, it still implies that shares have to appreciate by 45% over the next six months. The closer we get to mid-March without a buoyant price, the greater the chances that Sirius XM flips the preapproved switch on the reverse stock split. Reverse splits aren't fatal. AIG (NYSE:AIG) and Coeur d'Alene Mines (NYSE:CDE) are trading sharply higher since their reverse splits earlier this year. However, the splits are just like the "in case of emergency" axe behind a plate of glass. Sirius XM would prefer to put out the fire on its own before it starts breaking things.