Fourth quarter earnings were significantly below expectations, as management invested heavily in R&D and SG&A. This highlights AstraZeneca's dilemma: the pipeline is rich with innovation but needs heavy investment to realise its full potential. At the same time, Nexium, Crestor, and EU Symbicort are going generic, and key launch brands in respiratory and diabetes need continued investment in highly competitive categories. To mitigate this, the chief executive has introduced a new source of earnings ("externalisation revenue") selling/partnering non-core pipeline assets to prop-up earnings. The problem is the magnitude and consistency of earnings that 'externalisation' needs to generate. We estimate that AstraZeneca needs to realise at least $1.5bn of proceeds from asset sales annually in 2015, 2016 and 2017 in order to keep earnings per share flat at 2014 levels and support the dividend. But should investors really pay 15-20 times PE for one-time gains on partnering/disposals?